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2018年是全面貫徹黨的十九大精神的開局之年，是改革開放40周年，是決勝全面建成小康社會、實施“十三五”規劃承上啟下的關鍵一年。我國電力發展也進入轉方式、調結構、換動力的關鍵時期，電力供需多元化格局越來越清晰，電力結構低碳化趨勢越來越明顯，電力系統智能化特征越來越突出。

展(zhan)(zhan)望未(wei)來，要持續推(tui)進電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)給側結(jie)構性(xing)改(gai)革(ge)(ge)(ge)，持續優(you)化(hua)供(gong)給結(jie)構、提高供(gong)給質量、滿(man)足有(you)效需(xu)求，著力(li)解決電(dian)(dian)力(li)安全(quan)穩(wen)定運行、清(qing)潔(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)消納、煤電(dian)(dian)企業(ye)(ye)經營困(kun)難及保障(zhang)清(qing)潔(jie)發展(zhan)(zhan)能(neng)力(li)弱、核電(dian)(dian)發展(zhan)(zhan)停滯等突出矛盾和問題，繼(ji)續加快推(tui)進電(dian)(dian)力(li)改(gai)革(ge)(ge)(ge)，擴大電(dian)(dian)力(li)市場(chang)化(hua)電(dian)(dian)量比重，持續推(tui)動電(dian)(dian)力(li)發展(zhan)(zhan)質量變(bian)革(ge)(ge)(ge)、效率變(bian)革(ge)(ge)(ge)和動力(li)變(bian)革(ge)(ge)(ge)，努力(li)實(shi)現電(dian)(dian)力(li)行業(ye)(ye)平穩(wen)健(jian)康可持續發展(zhan)(zhan)。

推動變革應對挑戰

中(zhong)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)聯(lian)合會黨組書記、常務副理事長楊(yang)昆指(zhi)出，促進電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)工業(ye)繼續向清潔低碳、安全(quan)高效的系(xi)統轉型，就要應對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)發(fa)(fa)展過程(cheng)中(zhong)的一(yi)系(xi)列(lie)挑戰：一(yi)是(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源與電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網、交流與直(zhi)流、煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)與清潔能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)展不協調的問(wen)題(ti)(ti)依然(ran)存在；二是(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源結(jie)構調整、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場建設、資源利(li)用效率不充分(fen)問(wen)題(ti)(ti)不同程(cheng)度存在，“棄(qi)水(shui)、棄(qi)風、棄(qi)光”問(wen)題(ti)(ti)依然(ran)嚴峻，棄(qi)核時(shi)有發(fa)(fa)生；三(san)是(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)生產(chan)(chan)經營形勢嚴峻，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤價格持(chi)續高位大幅推高煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)，下調拉低發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)收入(ru)，可(ke)再生能(neng)源補貼(tie)不到位加重企(qi)(qi)業(ye)財務成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)負(fu)擔，環保(bao)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)投入(ru)及(ji)運維(wei)無(wu)法通過電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價疏導；四是(shi)受(shou)到集(ji)中(zhong)投產(chan)(chan)，新能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機快速增長的影響(xiang)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統形態及(ji)運行特性發(fa)(fa)生重大變化，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)安全(quan)生產(chan)(chan)壓(ya)力(li)(li)(li)增大。

楊昆表示，2018年(nian)電力發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)需要加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)三個(ge)新(xin)變(bian)(bian)革，即(ji)：加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)推(tui)動(dong)電力發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)質量變(bian)(bian)革。要繼續(xu)推(tui)進防范(fan)和化解(jie)煤電過(guo)剩產能(neng)，著力解(jie)決清潔能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消納問(wen)題，進一(yi)步完善(shan)電網(wang)結構，提高(gao)電網(wang)運行效率和安全可(ke)靠(kao)性。加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)推(tui)動(dong)電力發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)效率變(bian)(bian)革。應(ying)深入推(tui)進電力全鏈(lian)條體制(zhi)機(ji)制(zhi)改(gai)(gai)革創(chuang)新(xin)，深化要素市(shi)場化配置改(gai)(gai)革，加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)電力市(shi)場化建(jian)設(she)，完善(shan)市(shi)場機(ji)制(zhi)與政策體系，建(jian)立可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消納激勵機(ji)制(zhi)，完善(shan)可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電價格形成機(ji)制(zhi)。加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)推(tui)動(dong)電力發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)動(dong)力變(bian)(bian)革。要加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)重點技(ji)術與裝(zhuang)備創(chuang)新(xin)，積極培育(yu)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)新(xin)動(dong)能(neng)，不斷(duan)推(tui)動(dong)電力生(sheng)產消費新(xin)模式、新(xin)業態發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)壯大。

電力結構清潔化調整步伐加快

能(neng)源(yuan)電力(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)要(yao)(yao)推進能(neng)源(yuan)生(sheng)產(chan)和消費(fei)革命，構(gou)建清潔低碳、安(an)全高效(xiao)的(de)能(neng)源(yuan)體系(xi)，這是(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)電力(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)的(de)歷(li)史性(xing)重任，也是(shi)建設現(xian)代化經(jing)濟(ji)體系(xi)的(de)重要(yao)(yao)基礎和支撐。但從(cong)當前電力(li)(li)發展改革現(xian)狀看，還存(cun)在很大(da)差距，仍(reng)面臨著較為(wei)嚴峻的(de)形勢和挑戰。

電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)安(an)全(quan)穩定運(yun)行面(mian)臨嚴(yan)峻(jun)考(kao)驗。隨(sui)著我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力快(kuai)速發(fa)展和持續轉(zhuan)型升級，大(da)電(dian)(dian)網不斷(duan)延伸、電(dian)(dian)壓等級不斷(duan)提高(gao)(gao)、大(da)容量(liang)高(gao)(gao)參數(shu)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)機組不斷(duan)增(zeng)多，新能源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)大(da)規模集中并(bing)網，電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)形態及運(yun)行特性(xing)日趨復雜，特別是信息技(ji)術等新技(ji)術應用帶來的非傳統(tong)(tong)隱患增(zeng)多，對系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)支撐能力、轉(zhuan)移能力、調(diao)節能力提出(chu)了更高(gao)(gao)要求(qiu)，給電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)安(an)全(quan)穩定運(yun)行帶來了嚴(yan)峻(jun)考(kao)驗。此外，各類自(zi)然災害(hai)頻發(fa)，保障電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)安(an)全(quan)任務(wu)更為(wei)艱巨(ju)，發(fa)生大(da)面(mian)積停電(dian)(dian)風(feng)險(xian)始終存在。

清潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消納(na)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)(ti)依然突(tu)出(chu)。2017年，在各方共同努力(li)下(xia)，通過(guo)綜合施策(ce)(ce)，棄風(feng)、棄光率有所下(xia)降，云(yun)南、四川棄水電(dian)(dian)量有所減少，遼寧、福建(jian)核電(dian)(dian)限電(dian)(dian)情況有所緩(huan)解，但并沒有從(cong)體制機制上解決(jue)清潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消納(na)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)(ti)，清潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)展面(mian)臨的問(wen)(wen)題(ti)(ti)依然突(tu)出(chu)，如發(fa)展協調性不(bu)(bu)(bu)夠、系統靈活(huo)性不(bu)(bu)(bu)足導(dao)致調峰困難(nan)、輸電(dian)(dian)通道建(jian)設不(bu)(bu)(bu)匹配導(dao)致大范(fan)圍消納(na)受限、水電(dian)(dian)流(liu)域統籌規劃和管(guan)理較為薄弱、新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)自身存在技術(shu)約束、需求側潛力(li)發(fa)揮(hui)不(bu)(bu)(bu)夠、市(shi)場機制不(bu)(bu)(bu)完(wan)善、政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)措(cuo)施有局限等(deng)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)(ti)依然沒有得到較好解決(jue)。

煤電(dian)(dian)企業經營困難，保(bao)障煤電(dian)(dian)清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)能力較弱。在未來二三(san)十年(nian)內，煤電(dian)(dian)在清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的基(ji)礎(chu)(chu)上(shang)(shang)，仍(reng)將發(fa)(fa)揮基(ji)礎(chu)(chu)性(xing)和(he)靈活性(xing)電(dian)(dian)源作用，仍(reng)是為電(dian)(dian)力系統提供電(dian)(dian)力、電(dian)(dian)量的主(zhu)體能源形(xing)式。但2016年(nian)下半年(nian)以來，煤炭供需持續緊張，據調研測算，2017年(nian)五(wu)大發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)集團到場標煤單(dan)價比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)上(shang)(shang)漲34%，導致(zhi)電(dian)(dian)煤采(cai)購(gou)成(cheng)本比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)提高920億(yi)元左右；全國煤電(dian)(dian)行業因電(dian)(dian)煤價格(ge)上(shang)(shang)漲導致(zhi)電(dian)(dian)煤采(cai)購(gou)成(cheng)本提高2000億(yi)元左右，導致(zhi)煤電(dian)(dian)行業大面積虧損。煤電(dian)(dian)長期經營困難甚至虧損，不(bu)利(li)于(yu)電(dian)(dian)力安全穩定供應，也極大削(xue)弱了煤電(dian)(dian)清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的能力，煤電(dian)(dian)清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的任(ren)務更加(jia)艱巨(ju)。

核(he)(he)電建(jian)設發展(zhan)停滯。已連續(xu)兩年沒有核(he)(he)準新的(de)核(he)(he)電項目（除示范快堆項目外），核(he)(he)電投資規(gui)模也連續(xu)兩年下降，在(zai)建(jian)規(gui)模減少(shao)到(dao)2017年底的(de)2289萬千(qian)瓦，核(he)(he)電發展(zhan)進(jin)度明顯慢于《國(guo)家(jia)電力發展(zhan)“十三五”規(gui)劃》，可能(neng)會影響國(guo)家(jia)非化石能(neng)源消費比重目標完成。

未來，電力(li)發(fa)展清潔化(hua)(hua)、智能化(hua)(hua)、國際化(hua)(hua)、市場化(hua)(hua)是大勢所趨。

一方面(mian)，清潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)裝機占比將(jiang)明顯提高，我國(guo)生(sheng)態(tai)和環境約束(shu)持續(xu)趨緊，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)結構清潔化調整步(bu)伐必(bi)須進(jin)一步(bu)加快。2020年我國(guo)非化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)裝機比重將(jiang)達到(dao)39%。據預測，未來20年中國(guo)可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)增長量將(jiang)超過歐洲(zhou)和美國(guo)的(de)總和。同(tong)時(shi)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)化是清潔綠色安全(quan)高效(xiao)發(fa)展的(de)客觀(guan)要求。要實現(xian)集中和分(fen)布(bu)式并舉，傳統(tong)(tong)(tong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)和新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)協同(tong)，增強調峰能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)建設(she)，提升(sheng)響(xiang)應水(shui)平，建設(she)高效(xiao)、智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)成為必(bi)然的(de)選擇。另一方面(mian)，信息技(ji)術為電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)化發(fa)展提供了(le)技(ji)術支撐，大(da)數據、云計算、物聯網(wang)、移動互聯網(wang)等先進(jin)信息技(ji)術與電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)工業深度融合，智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車(che)、無線(xian)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)等領(ling)域技(ji)術實現(xian)快速突破，分(fen)布(bu)式智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)供應系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)將(jiang)得到(dao)廣(guang)泛應用(yong)。

電力改革與市場化建設進入深水區

兩年多來，電(dian)力改(gai)革(ge)全面推進(jin)、成效顯著，接下來的(de)電(dian)力改(gai)革(ge)將逐步進(jin)入攻堅克難(nan)、啃硬(ying)骨(gu)頭(tou)的(de)深水區。綜(zong)合(he)體現(xian)在：

一是政(zheng)策多(duo)門(men)、地(di)方各(ge)異。導致各(ge)類試點在具體(ti)落實(shi)過(guo)程中(zhong)，中(zhong)央各(ge)部(bu)門(men)之(zhi)間、中(zhong)央與地(di)方之(zhi)間、政(zheng)府與市場(chang)主體(ti)之(zhi)間、電(dian)力企(qi)業與社(she)會之(zhi)間協(xie)調(diao)難度(du)大，規則不規范(fan)，市場(chang)準入標準各(ge)地(di)各(ge)異。

二是跨省(sheng)區交易存在壁壘障礙(ai)。市(shi)場交易體系(xi)不(bu)(bu)健全、品種不(bu)(bu)完(wan)善、信息(xi)不(bu)(bu)對稱，制約(yue)清(qing)潔能源(yuan)跨區交易與消納規模(mo)，難(nan)以體現市(shi)場對資(zi)源(yuan)配置的優勢。

三是電(dian)(dian)價體系有待(dai)完善。當前電(dian)(dian)力上游至電(dian)(dian)力各產業(ye)(ye)鏈乃至用戶側價格仍以計(ji)劃調控為(wei)主導，缺乏合理的市(shi)場化疏導機制(zhi)，導致發電(dian)(dian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)尤(you)其是煤電(dian)(dian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的合理利潤空間(jian)被(bei)肆意(yi)擠壓，輸配(pei)電(dian)(dian)成本(ben)歸集和(he)電(dian)(dian)價交叉(cha)補貼沒有科學化的監審(shen)標(biao)準，電(dian)(dian)網(wang)和(he)社(she)會企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)投資(zi)增(zeng)量(liang)配(pei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)積極性(xing)受挫(cuo)，行業(ye)(ye)可持續發展能力減(jian)弱。

四是支撐(cheng)增量配電業務(wu)試點的相(xiang)關政策規范和(he)發(fa)展規劃缺乏、相(xiang)關法規不(bu)清晰，配電存量與增量的區域劃分與建設發(fa)展困難(nan)重重，投資效益不(bu)確(que)定，安(an)全運營風(feng)險加大。

國際化為企業提供廣闊空間

能(neng)源電(dian)力領(ling)域是中國(guo)企業“走(zou)出去”重(zhong)要陣(zhen)地，國(guo)家實施(shi)“走(zou)出去”及“一帶一路”建設(she)(she)，中國(guo)能(neng)源電(dian)力海外投資建設(she)(she)項目持續增加(jia)(jia)，全方位、多領(ling)域電(dian)力對外開放格(ge)局更加(jia)(jia)明晰。

“一帶(dai)(dai)一路(lu)”倡(chang)議(yi)加強國(guo)際間的電(dian)(dian)力合作(zuo)，促進我國(guo)的特(te)高壓輸電(dian)(dian)以及核電(dian)(dian)、火電(dian)(dian)乃至水電(dian)(dian)走(zou)出去，帶(dai)(dai)動了(le)相關(guan)的設備(bei)、相關(guan)的產業(ye)走(zou)出去。“一帶(dai)(dai)一路(lu)”倡(chang)議(yi)為電(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業(ye)傳(chuan)統海外業(ye)務升級提(ti)(ti)供(gong)了(le)新契機，增大了(le)中資電(dian)(dian)力企業(ye)投資機會；為我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力裝備(bei)產業(ye)提(ti)(ti)供(gong)了(le)更(geng)為廣(guang)闊的市(shi)場空間；“綠(lv)色‘一帶(dai)(dai)一路(lu)’”理念更(geng)有(you)利于(yu)發揮(hui)我國(guo)三(san)代核電(dian)(dian)和風、光(guang)等清(qing)潔(jie)能(neng)源的技術與標(biao)準的相對優勢。

楊昆(kun)表示，過去10年，強勁的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)求為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)擴張(zhang)(zhang)提供(gong)了有利(li)的(de)(de)外部環境，我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)迅速(su)發(fa)展(zhan)。但隨著我(wo)國經濟增(zeng)長(chang)速(su)度(du)放緩、環保壓力(li)的(de)(de)逐漸增(zeng)大(da)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市場改(gai)革(ge)不斷推進，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)形勢發(fa)生逆轉(zhuan)、傳統電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)結(jie)構(gou)受到(dao)挑戰(zhan)(zhan)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)商業(ye)(ye)(ye)模式(shi)不斷創新(xin)，一味地追(zhui)求規模擴張(zhang)(zhang)已經不再適用于我(wo)國當(dang)下電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)趨(qu)勢。雖然走在轉(zhuan)型前列的(de)(de)德國和美國采取(qu)的(de)(de)轉(zhuan)型策略不完全(quan)相(xiang)同，但推進清潔能源利(li)用，優化電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)結(jie)構(gou)，適時轉(zhuan)變發(fa)展(zhan)思路是(shi)普遍選擇。我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)必須(xu)根據(ju)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)趨(qu)勢進行企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)戰(zhan)(zhan)略調整，積極(ji)開展(zhan)合理的(de)(de)戰(zhan)(zhan)略布局，在電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)結(jie)構(gou)和市場改(gai)革(ge)中找到(dao)新(xin)的(de)(de)經濟增(zeng)長(chang)點，爭取(qu)更加平緩穩(wen)健的(de)(de)過渡到(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)新(xin)階段。