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即將到來的2020年既(ji)是“十(shi)(shi)三五(wu)”收官(guan)之(zhi)年，也是“十(shi)(shi)四(si)五(wu)”的規劃之(zhi)年。“十(shi)(shi)三五(wu)”電(dian)力(li)(li)規劃制定的發(fa)展目標大都可實(shi)現，風電(dian)和光伏大幅超預(yu)期增(zeng)長，但是抽水蓄能、氣(qi)電(dian)裝機不達預(yu)期，煤(mei)電(dian)靈活性(xing)改造進展緩慢。同時(shi)，電(dian)力(li)(li)工業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展的新(xin)問(wen)題(ti)不斷暴露與激化(hua)，“短(duan)時(shi)缺(que)電(dian)力(li)(li)、全年富(fu)電(dian)量(liang)”，煤(mei)電(dian)行業(ye)(ye)大幅虧損，系統靈活性(xing)不足與新(xin)能源消納受限等等，都是電(dian)力(li)(li)行業(ye)(ye)結構性(xing)矛盾長期積累的體現。

“十四五(wu)”是電力低碳(tan)發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)戰(zhan)略“窗口期(qi)”，而電力供(gong)需形勢變化、能源革命目標、環保(bao)政策(ce)加碼(ma)、電力市場化改革、巴黎(li)協定(ding)溫控目標等(deng)多重因素使得(de)電力發(fa)展(zhan)“內外交困”，與(yu)以(yi)往(wang)“按需定(ding)供(gong)”的(de)(de)簡單總量平衡(heng)規劃(hua)相(xiang)比，“十四五(wu)”電力規劃(hua)須有新(xin)的(de)(de)內涵與(yu)定(ding)位，同時(shi)將更(geng)具(ju)有挑戰(zhan)性。

一、立足長遠，明確“十四五”電力規劃的價值觀與方法論。

電(dian)(dian)力(li)工業(ye)是國(guo)民(min)經濟(ji)(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的支柱(zhu)性產業(ye)，關乎國(guo)計民(min)生。在目(mu)前穩增長(chang)和調(diao)結構并(bing)行(xing)的經濟(ji)(ji)轉(zhuan)軌期，為(wei)更好(hao)地服務于國(guo)家(jia)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)戰略，“十四(si)五”電(dian)(dian)力(li)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)應堅(jian)持“安全為(wei)基礎(chu)，綠色(se)和經濟(ji)(ji)為(wei)約(yue)束”的價值觀(guan)，以“四(si)個能源革命”為(wei)方法(fa)論(lun)，發(fa)揮好(hao)向“兩(liang)個一(yi)百年”目(mu)標奮進(jin)的“窗口期”作用，根據2030/2035中期目(mu)標、2050年長(chang)期電(dian)(dian)力(li)低(di)碳轉(zhuan)型目(mu)標倒推近期電(dian)(dian)力(li)規劃目(mu)標，以保(bao)障(zhang)滿足人民(min)對更好(hao)生活要(yao)求的高質量、綠色(se)低(di)碳電(dian)(dian)力(li)服務為(wei)導向，避免電(dian)(dian)力(li)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的高碳路(lu)徑鎖定。

二、目標明確，“十四五”電力規劃要區分預期性、約束性和引導性指標。

“十(shi)四(si)五(wu)”電(dian)(dian)力(li)規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃(hua)的(de)(de)(de)目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)(biao)體系(xi)可(ke)分(fen)為(wei)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)、約(yue)束性(xing)(xing)(xing)和引(yin)導(dao)性(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)。預(yu)(yu)期(qi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)是(shi)(shi)經科(ke)學研判、預(yu)(yu)期(qi)會(hui)達到的(de)(de)(de)發展(zhan)目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)(biao)，主(zhu)要(yao)依靠市(shi)(shi)場主(zhu)體的(de)(de)(de)自主(zhu)行為(wei)來(lai)實現(xian)。約(yue)束性(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)，就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)在預(yu)(yu)期(qi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)基礎上，強化了必(bi)須(xu)履行的(de)(de)(de)職責，是(shi)(shi)必(bi)須(xu)實現(xian)、必(bi)須(xu)完成的(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)。引(yin)導(dao)性(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)，就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)指(zhi)在一定要(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)之下，可(ke)以根據標(biao)(biao)(biao)準定位(wei)和市(shi)(shi)場需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)具(ju)體情況靈(ling)活選用，并(bing)需(xu)要(yao)政(zheng)策推(tui)動鼓勵和市(shi)(shi)場機制引(yin)導(dao)的(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)。“十(shi)四(si)五(wu)”期(qi)間，建議設立的(de)(de)(de)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)包括全社會(hui)用電(dian)(dian)量、分(fen)類(lei)清(qing)潔可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)裝機容量、電(dian)(dian)氣化水平等；按照綠色低碳(tan)的(de)(de)(de)發展(zhan)要(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)，約(yue)束性(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)應包括電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應可(ke)靠性(xing)(xing)(xing)、煤電(dian)(dian)供(gong)電(dian)(dian)煤耗、非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)占比、電(dian)(dian)力(li)行業度電(dian)(dian)碳(tan)排放績效、棄風棄光(guang)率等；引(yin)導(dao)性(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)包括需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)響應規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)、煤電(dian)(dian)靈(ling)活性(xing)(xing)(xing)改造規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)、可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源平價上網時間、分(fen)布式能(neng)(neng)(neng)源利(li)用規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)、接(jie)入電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統的(de)(de)(de)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)、電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)替代規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)等。預(yu)(yu)期(qi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)為(wei)規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃(hua)指(zhi)引(yin)，約(yue)束性(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)為(wei)規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃(hua)保障，引(yin)導(dao)性(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)為(wei)規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃(hua)添力(li)，三者層次分(fen)明，共同構成“十(shi)四(si)五(wu)”電(dian)(dian)力(li)規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃(hua)的(de)(de)(de)目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)(biao)體系(xi)。

三、多維約束，明確“十四五”電力規劃的邊界條件。

邊界條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)可以理解為“要(yao)實現目標(biao)必須滿足(zu)的最(zui)低(di)條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)限(xian)制”，也就是(shi)基本(ben)原(yuan)則。電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)發展的邊界條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)包(bao)括安全可靠、低(di)碳減排、經(jing)濟適用(yong)等，這(zhe)些邊界條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)所對應(ying)的可量化指標(biao)分別(bie)為滿足(zu)最(zui)大(da)負荷水平與系統備(bei)用(yong)率、電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)碳排放強度、污染物排放總量、發電(dian)(dian)成本(ben)、電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應(ying)成本(ben)。

首(shou)先，規劃上不(bu)應(ying)(ying)以(yi)100%最(zui)大負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)(he)為負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)(he)平(ping)衡條(tiao)件，95%更(geng)為經(jing)(jing)濟、科學(xue)。我國經(jing)(jing)濟基本(ben)(ben)完成(cheng)工(gong)業化進程(cheng)、三產(chan)居民用電負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)(he)成(cheng)為新(xin)增(zeng)負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)(he)主體、疊加極端(duan)氣象因素，用電負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)(he)特性(xing)持續(xu)惡化，峰谷(gu)差拉(la)大、尖(jian)峰負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)(he)短而(er)高(gao)，如果繼(ji)續(xu)單(dan)純(chun)依靠增(zeng)加電源(yuan)來滿足100%的(de)負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)(he)需求(qiu)要付出極大的(de)代價；而(er)從(cong)滿足資源(yuan)充裕度要求(qiu)來看，需求(qiu)響應(ying)(ying)無需前期高(gao)昂的(de)建設(she)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)，是(shi)更(geng)為經(jing)(jing)濟的(de)選擇。與此(ci)同時(shi)，按照最(zui)大負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)(he)計算的(de)系統備(bei)用率也可(ke)相(xiang)應(ying)(ying)下(xia)調。

其次，低碳減排(pai)是應對全(quan)球氣候變化(hua)必須采取的(de)行動，而電(dian)(dian)力行業(ye)是重(zhong)中之(zhi)重(zhong)。我國以(yi)煤電(dian)(dian)為主的(de)電(dian)(dian)力結構碳排(pai)放強度很高(gao)，但(dan)未來提高(gao)發電(dian)(dian)效率、降低煤耗(hao)的(de)技術減排(pai)潛力不大，發展非(fei)化(hua)石能源(yuan)以(yi)及碳捕(bu)獲封存(cun)將是電(dian)(dian)力減排(pai)的(de)主要方式。為實現2050年全(quan)球兩(liang)度溫控(kong)和2030年碳排(pai)放達峰(feng)目(mu)標，有必要設定電(dian)(dian)力行業(ye)的(de)碳減排(pai)路(lu)線圖。

同時，發電(dian)資源的經濟性不應(ying)再停留在(zai)度(du)電(dian)成本層面，而應(ying)從系統(tong)角度(du)出發來衡量各(ge)類電(dian)源的價值，厘清電(dian)價的“權責關系”，用經濟激(ji)勵手段來引導各(ge)類電(dian)源有(you)序發展。

再(zai)有(you)，“十(shi)四五”電(dian)(dian)力(li)規劃(hua)必須具備峰(feng)值意識，提(ti)出明(ming)確的(de)涵蓋電(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)業尤其(qi)是與煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)相關的(de)峰(feng)值目標，例如電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)消費(fei)峰(feng)值總(zong)量/時間(jian)(jian)、煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)量（裝(zhuang)機(ji)）峰(feng)值總(zong)量/時間(jian)(jian)、電(dian)(dian)力(li)碳(tan)排放峰(feng)值總(zong)量/時間(jian)(jian)（須在(zai)2030年之前(qian)）。以峰(feng)值目標為重要節點，加快電(dian)(dian)力(li)低(di)碳(tan)轉(zhuan)型進程。

最后，須(xu)明(ming)確“十四(si)五”電力規(gui)劃(hua)邊界(jie)條件(jian)的邏輯關(guan)系，以安全可靠為(wei)首要目標，權衡(heng)低(di)(di)碳減排和經濟適(shi)用原則(ze)，不能片面追求低(di)(di)電價而(er)放(fang)緩新能源發(fa)展(zhan)（如大(da)部(bu)分發(fa)展(zhan)中國家(jia)），也不能因重(zhong)視新能源而(er)抬高電價（如德國），做(zuo)好(hao)經濟成本與環境(jing)效益的平衡(heng)，從(cong)而(er)劃(hua)定電力規(gui)劃(hua)“三角(jiao)形”的可行(xing)解(jie)范圍，并以宏(hong)觀能源經濟目標為(wei)依據，設(she)定具體的電力目標指引。

四、綜合優化，“十四五”電力規劃應著力解決復雜的系統問題。

“十四(si)(si)五”電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)形勢較(jiao)以(yi)往規(gui)劃(hua)期有很大不(bu)(bu)同。以(yi)往規(gui)劃(hua)期是(shi)按照(zhao)“以(yi)需定(ding)(ding)供(gong)(gong)(gong)”的(de)(de)(de)模式(shi)來設定(ding)(ding)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)目標，以(yi)應對(dui)全國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應不(bu)(bu)足的(de)(de)(de)主要(yao)矛(mao)盾，主體(ti)(ti)思路是(shi)加(jia)快部署電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)和完善輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網絡(luo)，這(zhe)符合當(dang)時(shi)(shi)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)階段的(de)(de)(de)特征要(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)。但新(xin)(xin)時(shi)(shi)期的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)矛(mao)盾不(bu)(bu)再(zai)是(shi)單一(yi)的(de)(de)(de)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需失衡，而是(shi)整個電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)結構性矛(mao)盾，集中表現為(wei)(wei)產能(neng)總體(ti)(ti)過剩與(yu)區域尖峰(feng)負(fu)荷(he)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應不(bu)(bu)足并存、靈活(huo)性資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)不(bu)(bu)足掣肘(zhou)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)、煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業虧損與(yu)中長(chang)期擱(ge)淺風(feng)險(xian)加(jia)劇，等(deng)等(deng)。單純依(yi)靠增(zeng)加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)已無法解決(jue)新(xin)(xin)時(shi)(shi)期的(de)(de)(de)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)(ti)，反而會加(jia)重結構性矛(mao)盾。“十四(si)(si)五”電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)面臨的(de)(de)(de)系(xi)統(tong)性問(wen)(wen)題(ti)(ti)是(shi)低碳轉型目標下如何進(jin)一(yi)步優化電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)結構來安全可靠地滿足新(xin)(xin)型用電(dian)(dian)(dian)需求(qiu)(qiu)及市場(chang)利益分配(pei)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)(ti)。具體(ti)(ti)來講，如何滿足高(gao)比例(li)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消納和負(fu)荷(he)特性惡(e)化對(dui)系(xi)統(tong)靈活(huo)性的(de)(de)(de)需求(qiu)(qiu)，如何調節煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)和新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)博(bo)弈關(guan)系(xi)，如何疏(shu)導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)成(cheng)本與(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價機(ji)(ji)制的(de)(de)(de)矛(mao)盾，如何推(tui)動(dong)(dong)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)功能(neng)定(ding)(ding)位調整等(deng)等(deng)，這(zhe)些問(wen)(wen)題(ti)(ti)應從更宏觀的(de)(de)(de)視(shi)角來考(kao)量(liang)。“十四(si)(si)五”電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)規(gui)劃(hua)不(bu)(bu)能(neng)一(yi)味(wei)“貪(tan)多求(qiu)(qiu)大”，要(yao)以(yi)擬解決(jue)的(de)(de)(de)關(guan)鍵(jian)系(xi)統(tong)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)(ti)為(wei)(wei)切入點，從系(xi)統(tong)優化角度(du)實現供(gong)(gong)(gong)需互(hu)動(dong)(dong)，側重市場(chang)引導(dao)，推(tui)動(dong)(dong)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)與(yu)防范風(feng)險(xian)并舉。

五、主體內容，“十四五”電力規劃明確各類電力資源的系統定位。

“十四五”電(dian)力規劃應減少規劃層次，多規合一，淡化總量平衡，突出重(zhong)大問題和政策(ce)引導。

首要(yao)問(wen)題是(shi)(shi)各(ge)(ge)類電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)定位(wei)。目前較為(wei)共識的(de)(de)(de)(de)觀點認為(wei)，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)要(yao)從(cong)(cong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)向電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉變(bian)，一定時期內(nei)保持主(zhu)體(ti)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)地位(wei)；為(wei)加速低碳轉型，新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)要(yao)從(cong)(cong)補充替代電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)成為(wei)主(zhu)體(ti)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)之(zhi)一，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)要(yao)持續穩(wen)步開發(fa)(fa)；重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)視儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)和需求響(xiang)應，強化供需耦合，改變(bian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統形態；跨區輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)是(shi)(shi)實現東(dong)西部(bu)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)互(hu)補的(de)(de)(de)(de)關鍵。其(qi)次是(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)布(bu)局問(wen)題，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)逐漸向中西部(bu)遷移，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)未來的(de)(de)(de)(de)開發(fa)(fa)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心放在(zai)西南地區，核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)在(zai)沿海地區和適宜的(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)陸選址布(bu)局，新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在(zai)三北富集區集中開發(fa)(fa)和在(zai)中東(dong)部(bu)地區分(fen)布(bu)式(shi)(shi)開發(fa)(fa)并(bing)舉開發(fa)(fa)。非常重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)，“十四五”規劃(hua)(hua)不應再是(shi)(shi)各(ge)(ge)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)品種簡(jian)單(dan)疊加的(de)(de)(de)(de)“拼盤式(shi)(shi)”規劃(hua)(hua)，而(er)是(shi)(shi)各(ge)(ge)類電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)定位(wei)明確(que)、功能(neng)(neng)互(hu)補；不應再是(shi)(shi)單(dan)純(chun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)規劃(hua)(hua)，而(er)是(shi)(shi)立足綜(zong)合資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)規劃(hua)(hua)，源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網荷儲(chu)用有機銜接的(de)(de)(de)(de)規劃(hua)(hua)；也不應再是(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業利(li)益主(zhu)張的(de)(de)(de)(de)規劃(hua)(hua)，而(er)是(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)（集中式(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開發(fa)(fa)+大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網）與區域和地方經濟社會發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)深(shen)度融合的(de)(de)(de)(de)規劃(hua)(hua)，為(wei)國家重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)區域發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)戰略落地提供新(xin)動能(neng)(neng)，為(wei)分(fen)布(bu)式(shi)(shi)可再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)留足空間，保持彈(dan)性互(hu)動。

面向(xiang)更為長遠的(de)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)目(mu)標，“十四五(wu)”電(dian)(dian)力(li)規劃有(you)必要(yao)出臺(tai)政(zheng)策(ce)引導電(dian)(dian)力(li)技術產(chan)業(ye)進(jin)步(bu)。其(qi)一(yi)、高度重(zhong)視(shi)節能(neng)(neng)(neng)優先戰略，強化(hua)能(neng)(neng)(neng)耗管(guan)理，推進(jin)“兩個替(ti)代”政(zheng)策(ce)和(he)分布(bu)式能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，減(jian)少(shao)散(san)燒煤，提高電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)水平和(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)自(zi)主性(xing)(xing)。其(qi)二、新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)還將大規模(mo)增長，需要(yao)繼續(xu)出臺(tai)補(bu)貼之外的(de)支(zhi)持性(xing)(xing)政(zheng)策(ce)保障(zhang)可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系統平價前的(de)“最后(hou)一(yi)公里”。其(qi)三、靈活(huo)性(xing)(xing)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)配置，依靠(kao)輔(fu)助(zhu)服務(wu)價格(ge)機制加快煤電(dian)(dian)定位轉型、CCGT建(jian)設和(he)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)部署，消(xiao)弭電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)側新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)波(bo)動(dong)和(he)需求側負荷(he)波(bo)動(dong)的(de)“兩極”疊加對電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統安(an)全的(de)影(ying)響。其(qi)四、核(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)開發(fa)按照“安(an)全、創(chuang)新(xin)、開放(fang)、市(shi)場導向(xiang)”的(de)原則，發(fa)揮規模(mo)建(jian)設的(de)效益優勢(shi)，縮減(jian)整體建(jian)設成本，構建(jian)可把控的(de)核(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)燃料(liao)產(chan)業(ye)鏈，做好核(he)燃料(liao)循環工(gong)作。其(qi)五(wu)、完(wan)善跨區輸電(dian)(dian)和(he)區域(yu)輸配電(dian)(dian)網建(jian)設，疏通(tong)區域(yu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)流通(tong)的(de)載能(neng)(neng)(neng)通(tong)道，實現不同資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)條件和(he)負荷(he)特性(xing)(xing)的(de)地域(yu)間跨時(shi)(shi)區凈負荷(he)時(shi)(shi)序互補(bu)。最后(hou)、鼓勵電(dian)(dian)力(li)新(xin)業(ye)態發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，例如綜(zong)合能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)服務(wu)、能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)互聯(lian)網、泛(fan)在物聯(lian)網等，著力(li)打造多能(neng)(neng)(neng)互補(bu)、能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與數(shu)字化(hua)深度融合，加速電(dian)(dian)力(li)低碳轉型進(jin)程。

六、機制建設，“十四五”電力規劃的實施要依靠“市場激勵+行政監管”。

單純(chun)依(yi)靠(kao)(kao)行政手段(duan)推(tui)動(dong)(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)工業(ye)(ye)快(kuai)速發(fa)(fa)(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)時期已經過去，現(xian)階段(duan)及以后應(ying)借助市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)規則來(lai)推(tui)動(dong)(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)高(gao)效(xiao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展，深化(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)化(hua)改(gai)革。從我國(guo)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)靈活(huo)性改(gai)造(zao)工作進程(cheng)緩慢可以看出，盡管“十三(san)五(wu)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)規劃(hua)明(ming)確制(zhi)定了(le)氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能、煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)靈活(huo)性改(gai)造(zao)的(de)(de)(de)目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)以提升系統靈活(huo)性，但市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)軔不足(zu)使(shi)得這些目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)均無(wu)法實現(xian)。國(guo)外(wai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)建(jian)設(she)的(de)(de)(de)成功經驗(yan)表明(ming)，采(cai)用“經濟激勵+行政監管”的(de)(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)化(hua)模式對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)資源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)配(pei)置效(xiao)率更高(gao)，更為符合電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)工業(ye)(ye)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展到一定水平(ping)后的(de)(de)(de)新階段(duan)要求。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展新形勢下(xia)，我國(guo)也應(ying)側重依(yi)靠(kao)(kao)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)手段(duan)引導(dao)(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展，將(jiang)(jiang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)體制(zhi)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)建(jian)設(she)納入到“十四(si)(si)五(wu)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)規劃(hua)中(zhong)，在政策目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)的(de)(de)(de)頂(ding)層設(she)計(ji)框架下(xia)，培育現(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)、輔助服(fu)務市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)和容量(liang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)，將(jiang)(jiang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)和電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)價值加以區分(fen)，通過合理的(de)(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)價格變化(hua)來(lai)釋放投資信號，引導(dao)(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)裝機(ji)(ji)、靈活(huo)性改(gai)造(zao)、儲能建(jian)設(she)、需求響應(ying)等，做到電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)競(jing)爭和電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)基礎(chu)設(she)施(shi)建(jian)設(she)“軟硬兼施(shi)”。因此，“十四(si)(si)五(wu)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)規劃(hua)既要明(ming)確一組關鍵指標(biao)(biao)來(lai)“總(zong)攬”未來(lai)五(wu)年電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)，還要“刻畫”出政策路線(xian)圖來(lai)“勾勒”體制(zhi)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)改(gai)革方向、明(ming)確改(gai)革成效(xiao)，始終以“問(wen)題(ti)導(dao)(dao)向”和“目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)導(dao)(dao)向”為準(zhun)繩，用順暢的(de)(de)(de)體制(zhi)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)為動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)驅動(dong)(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行業(ye)(ye)低碳(tan)轉型。

市場并不是“萬能(neng)鑰匙”，在(zai)市場建設(she)初期(qi)可能(neng)會出現運行(xing)(xing)效果和設(she)計初衷(zhong)有較(jiao)大(da)偏差的(de)情況，這是新機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)探索過程(cheng)中(zhong)必(bi)須考慮的(de)問題。“十四五”電(dian)力規(gui)劃(hua)應建立“需求場景+資源配置+市場機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)+政策保障”模式，構建靈活柔(rou)性的(de)規(gui)劃(hua)目標(biao)(biao)執行(xing)(xing)方(fang)式，約(yue)束性指標(biao)(biao)應有可執行(xing)(xing)的(de)落地(di)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)，預(yu)先(xian)設(she)定(ding)調(diao)控程(cheng)序，預(yu)留目標(biao)(biao)調(diao)整(zheng)空間；而預(yu)期(qi)性、引導(dao)性指標(biao)(biao)則主要通過機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)建設(she)，發(fa)揮市場的(de)決定(ding)性作用，建立合適(shi)的(de)激(ji)勵(li)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)由(you)市場力量來(lai)決定(ding)如何(he)發(fa)展。

“十四(si)五(wu)”電力規劃(hua)(hua)要從當前(qian)電力系統的(de)基本面出發(fa)，明(ming)確電力規劃(hua)(hua)的(de)主體思想(xiang)和理念——“安(an)全為首要命題(ti)，清潔和經濟為雙重約束(shu)”，以關鍵問題(ti)為切入點，側重市場引導手段，充分發(fa)揮好(hao)面向長遠(yuan)轉型目標的(de)戰略“窗口期”的(de)過渡作(zuo)用(yong)。