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煤電(dian)裝(zhuang)機占比首次降至40%以(yi)下，太(tai)陽能發電(dian)裝(zhuang)機突破(po)6億千瓦

中國(guo)(guo)電力企業聯合會30日發布的(de)《2023—2024年(nian)(nian)度全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)電力供(gong)需形勢分(fen)析(xi)預(yu)測報(bao)告(gao)》（以(yi)(yi)下簡稱《報(bao)告(gao)》）顯示：截至2023年(nian)(nian)底，全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)口徑發電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機容量29.2億千(qian)瓦，同比增長13.9%。人均發電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機容量自2014年(nian)(nian)底突破1千(qian)瓦/人后(hou)，在2023年(nian)(nian)首(shou)次突破2千(qian)瓦/人。煤電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機占(zhan)比降(jiang)至39.9%，首(shou)次降(jiang)至40%以(yi)(yi)下。煤電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機占(zhan)比首(shou)次降(jiang)至50%以(yi)(yi)下，是在2020年(nian)(nian)底。

2023年(nian)，電(dian)力行業綠(lv)色低碳轉(zhuan)型趨勢持(chi)續(xu)推(tui)進(jin)，新能(neng)源發(fa)展實(shi)現“三連跳”。先(xian)看裝機(ji)，全國并網風(feng)電(dian)和太(tai)陽能(neng)發(fa)電(dian)合計裝機(ji)規(gui)模從(cong)2022年(nian)底(di)的7.6億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，連續(xu)突破8億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、9億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、10億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)大關，于2023年(nian)底(di)達到(dao)(dao)10.5億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占總裝機(ji)容量比(bi)重為(wei)36%，同比(bi)提高6.4個百分點。其中，并網太(tai)陽能(neng)發(fa)電(dian)裝機(ji)規(gui)模從(cong)2022年(nian)底(di)的3.9億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，提高到(dao)(dao)2023年(nian)底(di)的6.1億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)。

再(zai)看(kan)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)，2023年，重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)調查(cha)企業電源完成投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長30.1%，其中非(fei)化石能(neng)源發(fa)電投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長31.5%，占電源投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)的比重(zhong)(zhong)達(da)89.2%。太陽能(neng)發(fa)電、風電、核(he)電、火(huo)電、水電投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同(tong)(tong)比分別增(zeng)長38.7%、27.5%、20.8%、15%和13.7%。

不(bu)過，從發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)看，2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占(zhan)總發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)比(bi)重接近六成，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)仍是(shi)當(dang)前我國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供應的主力電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)，有效彌補了當(dang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)出力下(xia)降(jiang)。2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)，年(nian)(nian)(nian)初主要(yao)水(shui)(shui)庫蓄水(shui)(shui)不(bu)足以(yi)及上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)(nian)降(jiang)水(shui)(shui)持續(xu)偏少，導致(zhi)上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)(nian)規(gui)模以(yi)上(shang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)22.9%。

《報告》預計，2024年新能源發電累計裝(zhuang)機(ji)規模(mo)將首次(ci)超過煤電裝(zhuang)機(ji)，占總裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量比重(zhong)上升至40%左右。隨著大規模(mo)新能源發電裝(zhuang)機(ji)持續(xu)接入(ru)電網，部分地區新能源消(xiao)納壓力凸顯。中國電力企業聯合會建(jian)(jian)議，加強風(feng)電、太陽能等新能源發展規劃(hua)，加快推進跨(kua)區跨(kua)省特高(gao)壓通道建(jian)(jian)設，繼續(xu)加強系統調峰能力建(jian)(jian)設。（丁怡婷）

轉自(zi)《人(ren)民日報(bao)》（2024年(nian)01月31日第02版）