国产精品视频一区二区三区无码,国产午夜精品无码,午夜天堂一区人妻,无遮挡色视频免费观看,中文字幕久热精品视频在线

近日(ri)，中信(xin)證券發布最新(xin)(xin)研(yan)報表示，新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)地(di)區(qu)新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)市(shi)場化改革(ge)實施方(fang)案出(chu)臺，存量項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)機(ji)制電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)保障性較(jiao)好，而增量項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)機(ji)制電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)下(xia)限較(jiao)低，預計(ji)后續(xu)實際(ji)向(xiang)0.150元/千瓦時下(xia)限靠攏(long)概率較(jiao)高；新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)地(di)區(qu)風光(guang)資源(yuan)稟賦優勢(shi)突(tu)出(chu)，在(zai)(zai)機(ji)制電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)明(ming)確(que)后，當地(di)新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)的盈利能力將(jiang)主要取(qu)決于限電(dian)(dian)(dian)率情況(kuang)；考慮現階段(duan)消納存在(zai)(zai)壓(ya)力且出(chu)力曲線分(fen)布極其不均，預計(ji)新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)增量光(guang)伏項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)所(suo)面臨壓(ya)力將(jiang)明(ming)顯(xian)高于風電(dian)(dian)(dian)。

全文如下：

公用環保(bao)｜新(xin)疆風光價改落(luo)地，增量光伏面臨電(dian)價壓力

新疆(jiang)地區新能(neng)源電(dian)價市場化(hua)改革實施方(fang)案出臺，存量項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)機(ji)(ji)制電(dian)價保障性較(jiao)好，而(er)增(zeng)量項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)機(ji)(ji)制電(dian)價下限(xian)較(jiao)低，我們預計(ji)后續實際向0.150元/千瓦時下限(xian)靠攏(long)概率較(jiao)高；新疆(jiang)地區風光(guang)資源稟賦優勢(shi)突出，在機(ji)(ji)制電(dian)價明(ming)確后，當地新能(neng)源項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)的(de)盈利能(neng)力將(jiang)主要取決于限(xian)電(dian)率情況(kuang)；考慮(lv)現(xian)階段(duan)消(xiao)納存在壓(ya)力且(qie)出力曲(qu)線分布(bu)極其不均，我們預計(ji)新疆(jiang)增(zeng)量光(guang)伏項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)所(suo)面臨壓(ya)力將(jiang)明(ming)顯高于風電(dian)。

▍事件：

近日(ri)，新疆發改(gai)(gai)委印發《自治區貫徹落實深化新能源上(shang)網電價(jia)市場化改(gai)(gai)革實施方案（試(shi)行）》，落實136號(hao)文，出臺省內新能源全面(mian)市場化具體細則。

▍存量(liang)及(ji)增量(liang)機(ji)制電價差異較(jiao)大，增量(liang)項目或更多向指導(dao)區(qu)間下限靠攏。

2025年6月(yue)1日前(qian)投(tou)產(chan)(chan)的(de)存量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)含(han)補項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)機(ji)(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)0.25元/千(qian)瓦時，機(ji)(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比例為(wei)其(qi)上網電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)30%；存量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)平價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)機(ji)(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)0.262元/千(qian)瓦時，機(ji)(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比例為(wei)其(qi)上網電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)50%。2025年6月(yue)1日及(ji)以后投(tou)產(chan)(chan)的(de)增(zeng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)，機(ji)(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)需通過(guo)競價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)形成(cheng)，機(ji)(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比例暫(zan)為(wei)其(qi)上網電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)50%，增(zeng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)采用邊際出(chu)清方式、風光(guang)分類型競價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)形成(cheng)機(ji)(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，競價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)區間暫(zan)定0.150~0.262元/千(qian)瓦時。目(mu)(mu)前(qian)新(xin)疆地區火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)基(ji)準電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為(wei)0.262元/千(qian)瓦時，存量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)含(han)補和平價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)機(ji)(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)略(lve)低于(yu)或者等于(yu)基(ji)準電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，考慮新(xin)疆現階段新(xin)能源消納壓力(li)較大，后續(xu)增(zeng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)機(ji)(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)在競價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)形成(cheng)過(guo)程中，其(qi)向(xiang)(xiang)區間下限靠攏(long)概率較高，其(qi)中光(guang)伏因出(chu)力(li)高度集中的(de)原(yuan)因而(er)向(xiang)(xiang)下限靠攏(long)更加突出(chu)。

▍電(dian)價機制明確(que)后，新疆(jiang)區域后續(xu)項(xiang)目盈利的(de)核心因素取決(jue)于限電(dian)率。

新(xin)疆(jiang)地(di)區(qu)(qu)風(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)資源(yuan)(yuan)稟賦優(you)勢(shi)突出(chu)，近年(nian)來新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)裝機增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)迅速，截止2024年(nian)底，新(xin)疆(jiang)地(di)區(qu)(qu)風(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)裝機規模已(yi)(yi)分(fen)(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)至4708/4872萬千瓦，風(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)上網電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別為(wei)708/380億千瓦時，風(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)在2024年(nian)新(xin)疆(jiang)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)中占比已(yi)(yi)經增(zeng)(zeng)至25.7%。受裝機高(gao)速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)影(ying)響，新(xin)疆(jiang)地(di)區(qu)(qu)新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)消納(na)(na)壓(ya)(ya)力已(yi)(yi)有(you)明(ming)顯抬頭，2025年(nian)4月(yue)，新(xin)疆(jiang)地(di)區(qu)(qu)的風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)利用(yong)率(lv)已(yi)(yi)經分(fen)(fen)別降(jiang)低(di)至88.9%/88.0%，雙雙跌破90%。考慮(lv)非(fei)機制電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)部分(fen)(fen)以(yi)及增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)的機制電(dian)(dian)(dian)價均(jun)取決于市場供需，且(qie)(qie)風(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)作為(wei)高(gao)經營杠桿行業對于利用(yong)小時極(ji)為(wei)敏感(gan)，在電(dian)(dian)(dian)價機制明(ming)確后(hou)，限(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)情況如何(he)將成(cheng)為(wei)區(qu)(qu)域內項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)盈利核(he)心的影(ying)響因(yin)素。因(yin)目(mu)前新(xin)疆(jiang)區(qu)(qu)域內消納(na)(na)已(yi)(yi)有(you)壓(ya)(ya)力且(qie)(qie)光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)出(chu)力曲線分(fen)(fen)布(bu)極(ji)其不均(jun)衡，我們預計新(xin)疆(jiang)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)所面臨(lin)壓(ya)(ya)力將明(ming)顯高(gao)于風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)。

▍風險因素：

整體(ti)用電(dian)需求受限；新(xin)能源消(xiao)納壓力上(shang)升；新(xin)能源市(shi)場交(jiao)易電(dian)價(jia)大幅下降、新(xin)能源投資(zi)成本上(shang)升等。

▍投資策略。

隨著新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)價(jia)市(shi)場化改(gai)革推進(jin)(jin)以及(ji)各省(sheng)市(shi)風(feng)光消(xiao)納壓(ya)力(li)普遍抬(tai)頭，電(dian)價(jia)改(gai)革過程(cheng)中將(jiang)伴隨著風(feng)光平均銷(xiao)售(shou)電(dian)價(jia)下(xia)降(jiang)和(he)新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)行業(ye)陣痛(tong)；與此(ci)同(tong)時(shi)，推動市(shi)場化改(gai)革的(de)推進(jin)(jin)也(ye)對(dui)(dui)行業(ye)恢復(fu)投資理性，更早回歸(gui)市(shi)場平衡帶(dai)來(lai)積極作用。估值(zhi)已經明顯破(po)凈、對(dui)(dui)于消(xiao)納風(feng)險已經有(you)較充分反應的(de)H股新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)運營商有(you)望(wang)隨著行業(ye)逐步(bu)出(chu)清而迎來(lai)配置機遇。與此(ci)同(tong)時(shi)，在(zai)新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)市(shi)場化過程(cheng)中，具備調(diao)節能力(li)的(de)火電(dian)、水電(dian)等電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)也(ye)有(you)望(wang)從中受(shou)益。