近(jin)日(ri)發布(bu)的我國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力情(qing)況(kuang)有這樣一段,“截至今年5月(yue)底,全國可再生能源發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)總(zong)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)容量達(da)到69956萬千瓦,占(zhan)全國規模以(yi)上(shang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)總(zong)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)容量的38.3%(加上(shang)核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),全部非化石能源裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)占(zhan)總(zong)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)比例為40.8%)。”
我(wo)一(yi)再(zai)強調過,現在把(ba)可再(zai)生能源(yuan),核電、火電、水電等其他(ta)能源(yuan)的裝機容量一(yi)并計算,得出我(wo)國電力裝機總(zong)容量,這個數字意(yi)義不是(shi)很大。
因為同樣(yang)的(de)(de)裝(zhuang)機容量可再生能源的(de)(de)發電(dian)(dian)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)數與核(he)電(dian)(dian)、火電(dian)(dian)相比小(xiao)(xiao)的(de)(de)可憐。風電(dian)(dian)年發電(dian)(dian)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)平均只(zhi)有(you)2000小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)左右,光伏1000多(duo)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi),而火電(dian)(dian)設(she)計標(biao)準(zhun)是年發電(dian)(dian)5500小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)。所以,同樣(yang)的(de)(de)裝(zhuang)機容量,風力發電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)發電(dian)(dian)量大概(gai)只(zhi)有(you)火力發電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)1/3,光伏只(zhi)有(you)火力發電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)1/5,核(he)電(dian)(dian)則(ze)可以到7000多(duo)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi),把不同發電(dian)(dian)方式的(de)(de)裝(zhuang)機容量簡單地(di)累加在一起(qi)沒有(you)什(shen)么可比性。
所以我(wo)建議,可(ke)參照標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)煤的(de)概念(同(tong)樣一噸煤因質(zhi)量(liang)(liang)不(bu)同(tong)發(fa)熱量(liang)(liang)差得很遠),引入標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)裝機容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)的(de)概念,即如果把(ba)火力發(fa)電5500小時作(zuo)為(wei)一個標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)發(fa)電容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang),則光伏按1/5折算成一個標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang),風(feng)電按1/3折算成一個標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang),核電應按1.4折算成一個標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)。當然,具體的(de)折算比例專(zhuan)家們可(ke)以商量(liang)(liang),這樣計算出的(de)全國電力裝機總容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)比較客觀。
我與電力(li)行(xing)業人(ren)士溝通,不少業內專家表示贊同,希(xi)望(wang)引入標(biao)準裝(zhuang)機容(rong)量(liang)的概念,客(ke)(ke)觀反(fan)映總裝(zhuang)機容(rong)量(liang)的規模(mo),也能更準確(que)反(fan)映可再生(sheng)能源發電和(he)核電在(zai)其(qi)中(zhong)所占的份量(liang)。按可再生(sheng)能源發電量(liang)在(zai)總發電量(liang)中(zhong)比例是(shi)一個準確(que)客(ke)(ke)觀的數據。