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近年來，我國新能源快速發展，風電和太陽能發電量占總發電量的比例從2010年的1.2%提高至2021年的11.7%，風光電量占比已超過全球平均水平。在積極應對氣候變化的背景下，加快發展風電和太陽能發電等新能源成為我國能源綠色低碳轉型的必然選擇，也是實現“雙碳”目標的先手棋。未來，既要為新能源發展開山鋪路，也要推動新能源承擔更多責任義務，支撐構建新型電力系統。

新能源占比逐漸提高是大勢所趨

風(feng)光發(fa)展潛力(li)巨大。《中(zhong)共中(zhong)央國務院關于完整準確全面貫徹(che)新發(fa)展理念做好碳達(da)峰(feng)碳中(zhong)和工作的(de)意(yi)見》明確提(ti)出，2060年非化石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消費比重達(da)到(dao)80%以上。我國水電、核電可(ke)開(kai)發(fa)量有限(xian)(xian)，水電技術(shu)可(ke)開(kai)發(fa)裝(zhuang)機(ji)約6.9億(yi)千(qian)瓦，預計未(wei)來常規(gui)(gui)水電裝(zhuang)機(ji)可(ke)達(da)到(dao)5億(yi)千(qian)瓦左右。現有核電技術(shu)發(fa)展受限(xian)(xian)于廠址資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)和鈾資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)，預計2060年前很難實現大規(gui)(gui)模商業化應用(yong)。相(xiang)比之下，風(feng)能(neng)(neng)和太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)儲量極(ji)為豐富，隨著技術(shu)突破和產(chan)業規(gui)(gui)模化發(fa)展，風(feng)電和太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電成(cheng)本將持續降低(di)，在(zai)裝(zhuang)機(ji)結構中(zhong)的(de)比例將持續提(ti)高。

新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)向主(zhu)體(ti)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)應循序(xu)漸進。雖然目前(qian)(qian)(qian)陸(lu)上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和光伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)已(yi)實(shi)(shi)現平價上(shang)網(wang)，但還難以(yi)實(shi)(shi)現對傳統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)的安全可靠替代，發(fa)展規模還受電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)消納(na)能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)制約，短時間內大(da)幅度提高風光電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)比例面(mian)臨很(hen)大(da)困難。未來，新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)將在電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)結構、運(yun)行(xing)(xing)方(fang)式(shi)、底層邏輯等方(fang)面(mian)與當前(qian)(qian)(qian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)有(you)本(ben)質上(shang)的區別，推動(dong)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)成(cheng)為(wei)主(zhu)體(ti)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)不(bu)可能(neng)一蹴而就。根據國(guo)務院《2030年(nian)前(qian)(qian)(qian)碳達(da)峰行(xing)(xing)動(dong)方(fang)案(an)》，2030年(nian)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和太(tai)陽能(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機達(da)到(dao)12億千瓦以(yi)上(shang)，屆時風光發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占(zhan)比達(da)到(dao)20%左(zuo)右，仍然不(bu)能(neng)成(cheng)為(wei)主(zhu)體(ti)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)。根據研究(jiu)預測(ce)，到(dao)2050年(nian)以(yi)后，風光電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)有(you)望達(da)到(dao)50%以(yi)上(shang)，成(cheng)為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)主(zhu)體(ti)。除此(ci)之外，還應考量(liang)其能(neng)否承擔(dan)保障供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)安全的主(zhu)體(ti)責任(ren)。因此(ci)，新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)要成(cheng)為(wei)主(zhu)體(ti)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)還需要一個長(chang)期過程，應實(shi)(shi)事求是、循序(xu)漸進。

新能源高比例發展面臨挑戰

充(chong)分消納(na)。當前風(feng)電(dian)(dian)和光伏(fu)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)消納(na)依賴火(huo)電(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)等(deng)常規(gui)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)進行(xing)調節。隨(sui)著風(feng)光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)快速發(fa)(fa)展，常規(gui)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)占比將(jiang)持(chi)續下(xia)降，如果繼續沿用當前的(de)消納(na)模式，將(jiang)遠(yuan)(yuan)遠(yuan)(yuan)不(bu)能(neng)支撐新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)成長(chang)為主體電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)。另(ling)外(wai)，激勵新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)消納(na)的(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)體系還(huan)不(bu)完善，提升電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)靈(ling)活調節能(neng)力(li)(li)的(de)投資成本疏導機(ji)制還(huan)不(bu)健全，系統消納(na)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)的(de)潛力(li)(li)未(wei)能(neng)得(de)到充(chong)分發(fa)(fa)揮。

穩(wen)定供電(dian)。風電(dian)和太陽能(neng)發電(dian)出(chu)力受氣(qi)候、天(tian)氣(qi)影響很大，無法(fa)持續(xu)穩(wen)定供電(dian)或根據負(fu)荷需求調(diao)節發電(dian)出(chu)力。為(wei)保障電(dian)力供需平衡(heng)，實現穩(wen)定供應(ying)(ying)，既需要(yao)解決(jue)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)隨機(ji)性(xing)和波動性(xing)問(wen)題(ti)，實現穩(wen)定輸出(chu);又(you)需要(yao)解決(jue)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)與用電(dian)負(fu)荷峰谷(gu)變(bian)化(hua)的匹配問(wen)題(ti)，實現調(diao)峰運行(xing);還需要(yao)應(ying)(ying)對連續(xu)陰雨(yu)、多日(ri)無風等特殊天(tian)氣(qi)，解決(jue)較長(chang)時(shi)段(duan)的電(dian)量不足問(wen)題(ti)。

安全(quan)(quan)運行。風(feng)電和(he)(he)光伏(fu)發電與常規火電、水電、核電等(deng)同步發電機(ji)不同，廣泛(fan)采用整(zheng)流器(qi)、逆變器(qi)等(deng)電力(li)電子器(qi)件，轉動慣(guan)量低，運行特征復雜，調頻能力(li)和(he)(he)無功支撐(cheng)能力(li)不足，大規模并網將(jiang)顯著改變傳統(tong)(tong)電力(li)系統(tong)(tong)的運行規律和(he)(he)特性。數字化智能化程度提高在推動系統(tong)(tong)升級的同時，還可(ke)能帶(dai)來網絡安全(quan)(quan)等(deng)非傳統(tong)(tong)安全(quan)(quan)風(feng)險(xian)。

地域匹配(pei)。我國(guo)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)資源(yuan)和(he)(he)需(xu)(xu)求逆向分布，中東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地區用電(dian)(dian)負荷較(jiao)大，但新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發展(zhan)受(shou)資源(yuan)條件、土(tu)地、環保等因素制(zhi)約，即(ji)使充分考慮中東(dong)部(bu)(bu)積極(ji)發展(zhan)分布式新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)和(he)(he)海上風電(dian)(dian)，仍然難(nan)以通(tong)過本地新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)滿足(zu)自身用電(dian)(dian)需(xu)(xu)求，還需(xu)(xu)要繼續擴大“西電(dian)(dian)東(dong)送”規(gui)模(mo)，實現新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)資源(yuan)跨省區優化配(pei)置。但是，新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)大規(gui)模(mo)遠(yuan)距(ju)離輸送面臨(lin)通(tong)道走廊資源(yuan)緊張(zhang)、通(tong)道利用小時(shi)數低(di)、送端電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)支撐(cheng)能(neng)(neng)力(li)不足(zu)、交流(liu)網架不適應等諸多問題。

科學調度(du)(du)。當(dang)前(qian)調度(du)(du)系(xi)統建立在信息(xi)可(ke)(ke)預(yu)測、可(ke)(ke)控(kong)制的(de)基礎上，隨著風(feng)電(dian)(dian)和(he)太陽能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)快速發(fa)展，調度(du)(du)系(xi)統需(xu)要處理的(de)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)規模、元(yuan)件(jian)數量、分布范圍、各種時間尺度(du)(du)的(de)不(bu)確定(ding)信息(xi)將呈指數級(ji)增長(chang)，新型儲能、車網互動(V2G)、源(yuan)網荷儲一體化等新模式將使得(de)電(dian)(dian)力供需(xu)從單向流動轉(zhuan)為雙(shuang)向互動，現有調度(du)(du)體系(xi)難以(yi)滿足未來發(fa)展需(xu)要。

“十四五”推動新能源發展的舉措

加(jia)(jia)強電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)側(ce)調(diao)節能(neng)(neng)力建(jian)設。提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)側(ce)調(diao)節能(neng)(neng)力是(shi)優(you)化(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)側(ce)出力特性、緩(huan)解風電(dian)(dian)(dian)和太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)消(xiao)納問題、實(shi)現(xian)穩定供電(dian)(dian)(dian)的必(bi)要手段。《“十四(si)五”現(xian)代能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)體(ti)系(xi)規(gui)劃》(以下簡稱(cheng)《規(gui)劃》)并(bing)沒有把系(xi)統調(diao)節責任(ren)全部推給常規(gui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)，而是(shi)首先強調(diao)了(le)風光發電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)身的責任(ren)義務，要提高功(gong)率預測水(shui)平，完善并(bing)網標準(zhun)體(ti)系(xi)，建(jian)設系(xi)統友好型新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)場站(zhan)(zhan)。同(tong)時，也對其他電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)調(diao)節能(neng)(neng)力建(jian)設作(zuo)出了(le)要求，要全面實(shi)施煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)組靈活性改造(zao)，到2025年(nian)累計改造(zao)規(gui)模超過(guo)2億千(qian)瓦(wa);加(jia)(jia)快抽水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)建(jian)設，到2025年(nian)裝機(ji)容量達到6200萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)以上;因(yin)地制宜建(jian)設天然氣(qi)(qi)調(diao)峰(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)，“十四(si)五”新(xin)增氣(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)5000萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)左右;因(yin)地制宜發展(zhan)儲熱型太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)熱發電(dian)(dian)(dian);推動(dong)多種(zhong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)聯合(he)優(you)化(hua)運(yun)行等。

提(ti)(ti)(ti)升負(fu)荷側(ce)(ce)靈(ling)活互動(dong)能(neng)力(li)。通過(guo)加強(qiang)負(fu)荷側(ce)(ce)靈(ling)活互動(dong)能(neng)力(li)，可以(yi)(yi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)負(fu)荷與(yu)電源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)匹配程度(du)，有利(li)于更大規(gui)模(mo)(mo)的(de)(de)(de)風光發(fa)電消(xiao)納利(li)用(yong)。目前需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)(ce)響應(ying)(ying)(ying)主要針(zhen)對大用(yong)戶，響應(ying)(ying)(ying)類(lei)型以(yi)(yi)“削(xue)峰”為(wei)主，集(ji)中在(zai)迎峰度(du)夏、迎峰度(du)冬(dong)等特(te)定時段，轉移(yi)負(fu)荷“填谷(gu)”規(gui)模(mo)(mo)十分有限。響應(ying)(ying)(ying)方式(shi)以(yi)(yi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)前通知、計劃(hua)安排(pai)為(wei)主，用(yong)戶在(zai)實時價格信號(hao)的(de)(de)(de)激勵下主動(dong)參(can)與(yu)響應(ying)(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)(de)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)較(jiao)小，“源(yuan)(yuan)荷雙向互動(dong)”的(de)(de)(de)供需(xu)(xu)模(mo)(mo)式(shi)尚未形(xing)成。《規(gui)劃(hua)》提(ti)(ti)(ti)出，要高(gao)(gao)比例釋放居民、一(yi)般工商(shang)業(ye)用(yong)電負(fu)荷的(de)(de)(de)彈性(xing)，開(kai)展各(ge)類(lei)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)聚合的(de)(de)(de)虛擬電廠示范。上述舉措將進(jin)一(yi)步引(yin)導需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)(ce)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)參(can)與(yu)電力(li)市場交易，有利(li)于提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)系(xi)統靈(ling)活性(xing)和(he)新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納水平。

加快電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)結(jie)構(gou)(gou)模式(shi)變革。當(dang)前(qian)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)對新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)以及(ji)分布式(shi)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、微(wei)(wei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)、電(dian)(dian)動汽車等多(duo)元(yuan)主體的(de)(de)接納(na)能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)較弱，網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)架結(jie)構(gou)(gou)對大規(gui)模新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)并網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)支撐能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)不足，輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)通道傳輸(shu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)有限(xian)，現役跨省區特高壓輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)通道及(ji)部分點對網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)通道平均(jun)可再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)量占比僅30%左右。《規(gui)劃》明確(que)了電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)結(jie)構(gou)(gou)形態(tai)的(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)方向(xiang)，即(ji)微(wei)(wei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)與大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)兼容互補(bu)發(fa)展(zhan)。在配(pei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)和微(wei)(wei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)方面，要加快配(pei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)改造升級，提高配(pei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)接納(na)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和多(duo)元(yuan)化負荷的(de)(de)承載(zai)力(li)(li)(li)和靈活性，積極發(fa)展(zhan)以消(xiao)(xiao)納(na)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)為主的(de)(de)智能(neng)微(wei)(wei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)。在大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)方面，要完善主網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)架結(jie)構(gou)(gou)，推動電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)之間柔性可控互聯(lian)，提升電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)適應新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)動態(tai)穩定(ding)水平，科學推進新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)跨省區輸(shu)送，提高全網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)消(xiao)(xiao)納(na)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)。

推進能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)技(ji)術創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)突破。技(ji)術創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)是(shi)推動(dong)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發展的核心驅動(dong)力，儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技(ji)術是(shi)破解新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發展難題的重(zhong)要突破口(kou)。“十三五”時期鋰(li)離子電池、液(ye)流電池、壓縮空氣儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等已(yi)取得顯著進步，但經濟性和安全性仍然不(bu)(bu)夠理想。氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)可作(zuo)為新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消納存儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)的重(zhong)要能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量載體，但目前(qian)應(ying)(ying)用(yong)規模仍然比較小，產業鏈還不(bu)(bu)健全。《規劃》提出，強化氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等前(qian)沿科(ke)技(ji)攻關，推動(dong)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)成本持續下降和規模化應(ying)(ying)用(yong)，提升安全運行水平(ping)，著力攻克可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)制氫(qing)(qing)和氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)運、應(ying)(ying)用(yong)及燃料電池等核心技(ji)術。此外(wai)，《規劃》還強調發展模式的創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)，推動(dong)多能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)互補(bu)、源(yuan)網荷儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)一(yi)體化、新(xin)(xin)型電力系(xi)統(tong)、智慧能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)技(ji)術示(shi)范等。

加(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)配(pei)套體制(zhi)機(ji)制(zhi)變革。新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)快(kuai)(kuai)速發展(zhan)需要(yao)體制(zhi)機(ji)制(zhi)的(de)引(yin)導和(he)保障。當前新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發展(zhan)的(de)配(pei)套體制(zhi)機(ji)制(zhi)還(huan)存在不足(zu)，激(ji)(ji)勵(li)系(xi)統調節能(neng)(neng)(neng)力建(jian)設(she)和(he)共(gong)享收益(yi)的(de)市場機(ji)制(zhi)還(huan)不健全。《規劃(hua)》提出，要(yao)創新有利于非化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發電消納(na)的(de)電力調度(du)和(he)交易機(ji)制(zhi)，推(tui)動非化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發電有序參與(yu)電力市場交易，通過(guo)市場化方(fang)式拓(tuo)展(zhan)消納(na)空(kong)間，引(yin)導支持儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)設(she)施、需求側資源(yuan)參與(yu)電力市場，建(jian)立可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消納(na)責(ze)任(ren)權重引(yin)導機(ji)制(zhi)，研究制(zhi)定可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消納(na)增(zeng)量(liang)激(ji)(ji)勵(li)政策(ce)，推(tui)廣綠(lv)色電力證書交易，加(jia)強可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電力消納(na)保障等。隨著體制(zhi)機(ji)制(zhi)和(he)市場體系(xi)逐漸完善，將充(chong)分調動全社會(hui)開發利用(yong)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)積極性，促進新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)快(kuai)(kuai)速高質量(liang)發展(zhan)。