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7月10日，青(qing)海省發改委、能源局(ju)、西北(bei)電監局(ju)、青(qing)海省自然資(zi)源廳、林(lin)草(cao)局(ju)等五(wu)部(bu)門聯合發布(bu)《關于推(tui)動“十四五(wu)”光熱發電項(xiang)目規(gui)模化(hua)發展(zhan)的(de)通(tong)知》（下文簡稱“通(tong)知”），根據(ju)通(tong)知：

光熱(re)一(yi)體(ti)化項(xiang)目(指(zhi)光熱(re)與光伏(fu)、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)等新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的一(yi)體(ti)化項(xiang)目)可(ke)不配套其(qi)他調節(jie)能(neng)(neng)力設(she)(she)施。新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)與光熱(re)比例(li)最高為(wei)6∶1。納入2021、2022年建設(she)(she)方案并如期并網的光熱(re)項(xiang)目，上網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價按照煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基準電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價執行（青海(hai)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)標桿電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價為(wei)0.3247元/kWh，風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光伏(fu)執行0.2277元/kWh）。

2023年(nian)4月，國家(jia)能源局(ju)發布《國家(jia)能源局(ju)綜合司關于推動光(guang)熱(re)發電規模化發展有關事項的通知》，提出：力(li)爭“十四五(wu)“期間，全(quan)國光(guang)熱(re)發電每年(nian)新(xin)增開工規模達到300萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)右。暫按內蒙古80萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，甘肅70萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，青海100萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，寧夏10萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，新(xin)疆(jiang)20萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)配置。

2022年(nian)，新疆自治區(qu)曾下發大量“光伏：光伏=9:1”的(de)市場化并網項(xiang)目，通過配置一定比例光熱來調(diao)節光伏的(de)出力。

光熱發電優勢多，卻被成本攔住腳步

光(guang)熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)兼具調峰(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源和(he)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)雙(shuang)重功能(neng)。光(guang)熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機組配置儲(chu)(chu)熱(re)功能(neng)后，熱(re)量(liang)產(chan)生時并不(bu)全都用(yong)掉它們，而是(shi)利用(yong)加熱(re)熔(rong)鹽(yan)的(de)方式存儲(chu)(chu)一部分熱(re)量(liang)，保存在特(te)制的(de)保溫儲(chu)(chu)罐直到需(xu)要的(de)時候再取出來。存儲(chu)(chu)在熔(rong)鹽(yan)中的(de)熱(re)能(neng)可(ke)以(yi)維持發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)數(shu)個小時，理(li)論上甚至能(neng)達到數(shu)天。具備這種特(te)殊能(neng)力(li)的(de)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站，可(ke)實現用(yong)新能(neng)源調節(jie)、支撐新能(neng)源，為電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)提供(gong)更好(hao)的(de)長周(zhou)期調峰(feng)能(neng)力(li)和(he)轉動慣(guan)量(liang)，是(shi)新能(neng)源安全可(ke)靠(kao)替代傳統(tong)能(neng)源的(de)有效手(shou)段。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)規劃設(she)計總院以(yi)新疆電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網為例(li)模擬計算光(guang)熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)調峰(feng)作(zuo)用(yong)，結果發(fa)現，假定建設(she)100萬千瓦至500萬千瓦不(bu)同規模的(de)太陽能(neng)熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機組，可(ke)減少棄風棄光(guang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)10.2%至37.6%。

同時，光(guang)熱發(fa)(fa)電產業鏈長，可消化提升特種玻璃、鋼鐵、水(shui)泥、熔融鹽等傳統產業，還(huan)可帶(dai)動新(xin)材料、智能控制等新(xin)興產業發(fa)(fa)展，光(guang)熱發(fa)(fa)電規模化開(kai)發(fa)(fa)利用將成為我(wo)國新(xin)能源產業新(xin)的增(zeng)長點。

為推動(dong)我(wo)國(guo)光熱(re)(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技術(shu)(shu)產(chan)業(ye)化(hua)發(fa)展，國(guo)家能源局2016年啟動(dong)首批(pi)20個光熱(re)(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)示范項(xiang)目(mu)，裝(zhuang)機規(gui)(gui)模(mo)總量達(da)134.9萬(wan)(wan)千瓦(wa)，開(kai)(kai)啟了我(wo)國(guo)光熱(re)(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)商業(ye)化(hua)進程。通(tong)過首批(pi)示范項(xiang)目(mu)，帶動(dong)了相關(guan)企業(ye)自主創新，突(tu)破(po)了多(duo)項(xiang)核心技術(shu)(shu)，并(bing)形成了完整的(de)產(chan)業(ye)鏈，目(mu)前設備國(guo)產(chan)化(hua)率超過90%，為后續(xu)光熱(re)(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技術(shu)(shu)大規(gui)(gui)模(mo)發(fa)展奠定了堅實(shi)基(ji)礎。截至2022年底，我(wo)國(guo)并(bing)網發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)光熱(re)(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)示范項(xiang)目(mu)共9個，總容量55萬(wan)(wan)千瓦(wa)。對(dui)比“每年新增開(kai)(kai)工規(gui)(gui)模(mo)達(da)到300萬(wan)(wan)千瓦(wa)左(zuo)右”目(mu)標，光熱(re)(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)有望(wang)迎來高速增長。

但在實際發展(zhan)(zhan)中(zhong)，光熱發電(dian)(dian)規模(mo)已被光伏發電(dian)(dian)遠遠甩開(kai)。目前(qian)(qian)制約我(wo)國光熱發電(dian)(dian)可持續發展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)主要因素在于相關政(zheng)策缺(que)乏連續性，比如，2016年(nian)國家發展(zhan)(zhan)改革委核定太陽能熱發電(dian)(dian)標桿上(shang)網示(shi)范(fan)電(dian)(dian)價后，企業(ye)建設熱情高(gao)漲；2020年(nian)初出臺(tai)的(de)《關于促進非水可再生能源發電(dian)(dian)健康發展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)若(ruo)干意(yi)見》明確，新增光熱項(xiang)目不(bu)(bu)再納入中(zhong)央財(cai)政(zheng)補貼范(fan)圍，光熱發電(dian)(dian)的(de)良好發展(zhan)(zhan)勢頭受(shou)到明顯影響。政(zheng)策不(bu)(bu)明確導致當前(qian)(qian)我(wo)國光熱發電(dian)(dian)缺(que)乏市場發展(zhan)(zhan)空(kong)間，成本也無法通過(guo)規模(mo)化(hua)應用持續降(jiang)低，處于起步階段的(de)光熱發電(dian)(dian)產業(ye)舉(ju)步維艱。同時，現行融資(zi)環境、土地政(zheng)策、稅收政(zheng)策無法為(wei)光熱發電(dian)(dian)健康發展(zhan)(zhan)提供有力支撐(cheng)。

借著推動(dong)光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)規模化發(fa)(fa)(fa)展的東風(feng)，還需鼓勵(li)有條(tiao)件的省(sheng)份和地(di)區(qu)盡快研究(jiu)出臺財政(zheng)(zheng)、價(jia)格、土地(di)等(deng)支持(chi)光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)規模化發(fa)(fa)(fa)展的配套(tao)政(zheng)(zheng)策，提(ti)前規劃(hua)百萬千(qian)瓦、千(qian)萬千(qian)瓦級光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)基地(di)，率(lv)先打造光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)產(chan)業(ye)集群。內蒙(meng)古、甘肅、青海(hai)、新疆等(deng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)重點省(sheng)份（自治區(qu)）能源(yuan)主管部門要(yao)積極推進光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目規劃(hua)建設，根據研究(jiu)成果(guo)及(ji)時調整相關(guan)規劃(hua)或相關(guan)基地(di)實(shi)施(shi)方案，統籌(chou)協調光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏、光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)規劃(hua)布局(ju)，合理布局(ju)或預留光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)場址(zhi)，在本省(sheng)新能源(yuan)基地(di)建設中(zhong)同步推動(dong)光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目規模化、產(chan)業(ye)化發(fa)(fa)(fa)展。充分(fen)發(fa)(fa)(fa)揮(hui)光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)在新能源(yuan)占比(bi)逐(zhu)漸提(ti)高的新型電(dian)(dian)力系統中(zhong)的作用，推動(dong)光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)實(shi)現關(guan)鍵一躍。

光熱發電的技術路線

按照聚光方式(shi)(shi)來劃(hua)分(fen)，光熱發(fa)電分(fen)為(wei)塔(ta)式(shi)(shi)、槽(cao)(cao)式(shi)(shi)、線(xian)(xian)性菲(fei)(fei)涅(nie)爾式(shi)(shi)、碟式(shi)(shi)四種技(ji)(ji)術路線(xian)(xian)。其中塔(ta)式(shi)(shi)和碟式(shi)(shi)為(wei)點聚焦，槽(cao)(cao)式(shi)(shi)和線(xian)(xian)性菲(fei)(fei)涅(nie)爾式(shi)(shi)為(wei)線(xian)(xian)聚焦。目前，應用較(jiao)為(wei)廣泛的(de)為(wei)槽(cao)(cao)式(shi)(shi)和塔(ta)式(shi)(shi)技(ji)(ji)術路線(xian)(xian)。在全球主要國家(jia)和地區(qu)的(de)光熱發(fa)電裝機中，槽(cao)(cao)式(shi)(shi)占(zhan)(zhan)比77%，塔(ta)式(shi)(shi)占(zhan)(zhan)比20%；我國光熱裝機則(ze)采用塔(ta)式(shi)(shi)技(ji)(ji)術較(jiao)多，占(zhan)(zhan)比63%，槽(cao)(cao)式(shi)(shi)占(zhan)(zhan)比26%

1、槽式

槽(cao)式光熱(re)(re)發電技(ji)(ji)術是將平行于(yu)槽(cao)形(xing)拋物(wu)面主軸線的(de)太(tai)陽(yang)輻射聚焦到集(ji)(ji)熱(re)(re)管中，并(bing)將多個槽(cao)形(xing)拋物(wu)面聚光集(ji)(ji)熱(re)(re)器經過串并(bing)聯組合構成聚光集(ji)(ji)熱(re)(re)系統，以此吸收太(tai)陽(yang)輻射能，產生過熱(re)(re)蒸(zheng)汽驅動發電機組發電。槽(cao)式技(ji)(ji)術的(de)優點(dian)在于(yu)聚光與(yu)集(ji)(ji)熱(re)(re)系統部件簡(jian)單、能量收集(ji)(ji)跟蹤(zong)控制簡(jian)便，但其聚光較低(di)、散(san)熱(re)(re)面積較大，從而導致光熱(re)(re)轉化(hua)效率和系統工(gong)作溫度較低(di)。

槽(cao)式太(tai)陽(yang)能發電(dian)系統(tong)包括(kuo)導熱(re)油槽(cao)式太(tai)陽(yang)能發電(dian)系統(tong)和熔鹽(yan)槽(cao)式太(tai)陽(yang)能發電(dian)系統(tong)，其主(zhu)要區別在于傳熱(re)介(jie)質分別采用(yong)導熱(re)油和熔鹽(yan)。導熱(re)油的(de)工作溫度(du)在400℃左右，這決定(ding)了經(jing)過蒸(zheng)(zheng)汽(qi)發生系統(tong)后主(zhu)蒸(zheng)(zheng)汽(qi)的(de)溫度(du)在370-410℃，因(yin)此采用(yong)的(de)中溫高壓汽(qi)輪(lun)機熱(re)效(xiao)(xiao)率約為(wei)(wei)38%。而熔鹽(yan)的(de)最高使用(yong)溫度(du)可達(da)565℃，因(yin)此當傳熱(re)介(jie)質采用(yong)熔鹽(yan)時，主(zhu)蒸(zheng)(zheng)汽(qi)溫度(du)在535℃左右，此時汽(qi)輪(lun)機熱(re)效(xiao)(xiao)率提升(sheng)至45%。除(chu)此之外，油槽(cao)系統(tong)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)罐的(de)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)熱(re)溫差(cha)為(wei)(wei)90℃（290℃-380℃），鹽(yan)槽(cao)系統(tong)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)罐的(de)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)熱(re)溫差(cha)為(wei)(wei)260℃（190℃-550℃），故鹽(yan)槽(cao)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)罐比油槽(cao)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)罐具有更(geng)(geng)大的(de)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)熱(re)空間，在儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)罐容量(liang)相同的(de)情況下，儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能系統(tong)投資更(geng)(geng)少。因(yin)此，熔鹽(yan)槽(cao)式光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站更(geng)(geng)適合作為(wei)(wei)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)熱(re)型(xing)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站。

2、塔式

塔式發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)術是(shi)一(yi)種集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)型光熱(re)(re)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)術。通過將成千上(shang)萬臺定(ding)日(ri)鏡布局(ju)成圓周(zhou)形(xing)，并在鏡場(chang)中(zhong)(zhong)心安置(zhi)一(yi)座幾百米高(gao)的吸(xi)熱(re)(re)塔。定(ding)日(ri)鏡包含安裝在鋼(gang)結構支架上(shang)的反射鏡，以及(ji)俯(fu)仰角和(he)回轉角的跟(gen)(gen)蹤驅動(dong)。定(ding)日(ri)鏡場(chang)獨(du)立跟(gen)(gen)蹤太(tai)陽(yang)光，將太(tai)陽(yang)光聚(ju)(ju)集(ji)到(dao)吸(xi)熱(re)(re)塔頂部的接(jie)收器中(zhong)(zhong)以產生高(gao)溫(wen)，加熱(re)(re)熔(rong)鹽(yan)，熔(rong)鹽(yan)與(yu)水換熱(re)(re)，產生高(gao)溫(wen)蒸汽，帶動(dong)汽輪(lun)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)做功發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)。塔式系(xi)統中(zhong)(zhong)，熔(rong)鹽(yan)為傳儲能介質(zhi)，換熱(re)(re)后主蒸汽溫(wen)度可達(da)550℃。除(chu)此之外，其(qi)聚(ju)(ju)光與(yu)集(ji)熱(re)(re)系(xi)統的控制(zhi)較為復雜，維護成本較高(gao)。但塔式系(xi)統聚(ju)(ju)光倍數(shu)高(gao)、光熱(re)(re)轉化效率高(gao)、熱(re)(re)量傳遞路徑短，非常適合大規模、大容量的商業化應用，因(yin)此塔式光熱(re)(re)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)系(xi)統被認為是(shi)未來主流技(ji)術路線，具備(bei)良好的發(fa)(fa)展前景。

線性菲(fei)(fei)涅(nie)爾(er)式(shi)的(de)(de)聚(ju)(ju)(ju)光(guang)(guang)(guang)系統由拋(pao)(pao)物面(mian)式(shi)聚(ju)(ju)(ju)光(guang)(guang)(guang)系統演化而來，其(qi)工作原理與槽式(shi)系統類似，但其(qi)鏡(jing)面(mian)無需保(bao)持拋(pao)(pao)物面(mian)形狀(zhuang)，而是采用了菲(fei)(fei)涅(nie)爾(er)結構的(de)(de)聚(ju)(ju)(ju)光(guang)(guang)(guang)鏡(jing)來代替拋(pao)(pao)物面(mian)。在運行(xing)過程中(zhong)，太陽(yang)輻射通過一次平面(mian)反(fan)(fan)射鏡(jing)聚(ju)(ju)(ju)焦到塔(ta)桿頂(ding)后再經二次反(fan)(fan)射鏡(jing)到線性集熱(re)器(qi)上，以(yi)此(ci)加(jia)熱(re)工質(zhi)，工質(zhi)與水換熱(re)后產生高溫蒸(zheng)汽，推動汽輪機發電(dian)。菲(fei)(fei)涅(nie)爾(er)式(shi)系統采用的(de)(de)菲(fei)(fei)涅(nie)爾(er)結構聚(ju)(ju)(ju)光(guang)(guang)(guang)鏡(jing)雖然(ran)降低了聚(ju)(ju)(ju)光(guang)(guang)(guang)鏡(jing)生產的(de)(de)技術難度和成本，但系統的(de)(de)總(zong)體效率有待提高。目(mu)前國內采用線性菲(fei)(fei)涅(nie)爾(er)式(shi)技術的(de)(de)光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站只有蘭州大成敦煌50MW的(de)(de)光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)發電(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)。

3、碟式

碟(die)式(shi)太陽(yang)(yang)能發(fa)(fa)電系(xi)統采用(yong)碟(die)式(shi)聚光(guang)系(xi)統，太陽(yang)(yang)輻射(she)(she)反射(she)(she)面布置為碟(die)形。太陽(yang)(yang)光(guang)將通過碟(die)形拋(pao)物面反射(she)(she)鏡反射(she)(she)聚焦到接收器上，產(chan)生的(de)(de)熱(re)(re)能通過推動安裝在(zai)焦點(dian)處的(de)(de)斯特林發(fa)(fa)動機(ji)做功發(fa)(fa)電。碟(die)式(shi)發(fa)(fa)電作為一種點(dian)聚焦的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)電技術(shu)路線，具(ju)有(you)高聚光(guang)比(bi)、高集熱(re)(re)溫度、集熱(re)(re)器損失小的(de)(de)特點(dian)，目(mu)前光(guang)電轉換效率最高可達30%左右。但其單機(ji)容量受制于價(jia)格因素(su)，單體發(fa)(fa)電容量規(gui)模較小，適(shi)用(yong)于分(fen)布式(shi)發(fa)(fa)電。

重新定位，光熱有望加速

由于光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏和(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)隨(sui)機(ji)性以及系(xi)統(tong)(tong)調(diao)峰能(neng)(neng)(neng)力的(de)(de)限(xian)制(zhi)，棄(qi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)、棄(qi)光(guang)(guang)(guang)的(de)(de)問題在風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)中(zhong)日益(yi)突出。光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)配有儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)，使得光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠在不增加風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏等新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源棄(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)率(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)情況(kuang)下(xia)，提(ti)升(sheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)(tong)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消納占比(bi)。具體(ti)內容包括(kuo)，一(yi)方面，利用(yong)光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏、風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)棄(qi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)棄(qi)光(guang)(guang)(guang)所產生(sheng)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力通(tong)過電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)加熱(re)(re)(re)器加熱(re)(re)(re)熔(rong)鹽儲(chu)熱(re)(re)(re)，即(ji)實(shi)現電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)向(xiang)熱(re)(re)(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)轉換；另一(yi)方面，根(gen)據熱(re)(re)(re)力學(xue)原理-朗肯循環，光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)的(de)(de)熔(rong)鹽儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)僅有40%左右的(de)(de)光(guang)(guang)(guang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)轉化(hua)(hua)效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)，所以一(yi)體(ti)化(hua)(hua)項目同時(shi)利用(yong)光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)鏡場聚熱(re)(re)(re)實(shi)現儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，達到(dao)補能(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)效(xiao)果，提(ti)高光(guang)(guang)(guang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)轉化(hua)(hua)效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)。近年來，我國相繼出臺一(yi)系(xi)列政(zheng)策文件(jian)，強調(diao)推動建(jian)設風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)儲(chu)一(yi)體(ti)化(hua)(hua)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源基地的(de)(de)重要(yao)性，為(wei)新時(shi)期我國光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)項目的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展指明了方向(xiang)。

除此之外，在(zai)光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)價補貼機制退出后(hou)，獨立的(de)(de)(de)光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)已(yi)不再具備經濟(ji)性，而風光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)儲的(de)(de)(de)一體化能夠降低光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)系統的(de)(de)(de)投資(zi)額(e)和(he)度電(dian)(dian)成本，提升(sheng)盈利空間(jian)。前文(wen)提到，定(ding)日鏡為光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)項目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)一大投資(zi)組成部(bu)分(fen)，在(zai)聚光(guang)(guang)鏡場的(de)(de)(de)面積和(he)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量呈(cheng)正比的(de)(de)(de)情況(kuang)下，光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)玻璃高昂的(de)(de)(de)成本是光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)裝機量難以(yi)快速提升(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)一大原因。在(zai)多(duo)能一體化項目(mu)中，光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)主要在(zai)晚高峰期間(jian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)，白天和(he)夜間(jian)低谷負(fu)荷期分(fen)別為光(guang)(guang)伏和(he)風電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)時間(jian)，相比于光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)全天獨立發(fa)電(dian)(dian)，此種情況(kuang)下光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量將有所(suo)減少，因此聚光(guang)(guang)鏡場可以(yi)適當縮小，減少項目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)投資(zi)額(e)。

從國家和地方的(de)(de)政策(ce)可以看出，再次提起光熱發電，它(ta)更(geng)多的(de)(de)是作為調峰資(zi)源出現，與大型(xing)風光發電項目配套發展。

鑒于(yu)光(guang)熱發電的投資成本(ben)，僅僅這一點增量市場，也是不容(rong)小覷(qu)的。

根據CSTA統計，2022年(nian)，在各(ge)地(di)政(zheng)府公布的大(da)型風電(dian)光伏基地(di)項目(mu)、新能(neng)源市場化并網以及直流外送等項目(mu)名單中，配置太(tai)陽能(neng)熱發電(dian)項目(mu)29個，總裝機容量約330萬(wan)千瓦(wa)，將在2023或2024年(nian)前投產。

光熱發電每千(qian)瓦(wa)投資成(cheng)本(ben)約為(wei)2.5-3.5億，單330萬千(qian)瓦(wa)裝機量已(yi)經是大幾百億的市場空間(jian)。

不過，參考(kao)光伏(fu)發展歷程(cheng)，規模化帶來的技術路(lu)徑優化、供應鏈完善，以及核心設備國產替代，使得光伏(fu)發電(dian)站的投資成(cheng)(cheng)本和度電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本快速下降，過去十年的降幅超80%。

隨著裝機規模增大，光熱發電(dian)也一定會經歷這個過程，只是未來能降本增效到什么(me)程度，仍需要時(shi)間(jian)給出答(da)案。

可以肯定的(de)是(shi)，只(zhi)有(you)完成降本增效，光熱(re)發電才可能獨立行走，換(huan)來更大的(de)市(shi)場。在此(ci)之前，光熱(re)發電或(huo)許更多飾演調峰配角。

測算模型(xing)：光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)裝(zhuang)機需求量(liang)=風(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)總體規(gui)劃*光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)容(rong)量(liang)比(bi)(bi)例(li)*配置光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)作為配套儲(chu)能的光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)容(rong)量(liang)比(bi)(bi)例(li)*光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)配置容(rong)量(liang)比(bi)(bi)例(li)。風(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)總體規(gui)劃：2030年(nian)風(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)大(da)(da)(da)基(ji)地(di)規(gui)劃約(yue)455GW（十(shi)四(si)五(wu)200GW、十(shi)五(wu)五(wu)255GW）（發(fa)改委、能源局《以(yi)沙漠、戈壁、荒漠地(di)區為重點的大(da)(da)(da)型(xing)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)基(ji)地(di)規(gui)劃布局方案》規(gui)劃）。風(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)大(da)(da)(da)基(ji)地(di)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)容(rong)量(liang)比(bi)(bi)例(li)：“十(shi)四(si)五(wu)”期間為56%，“十(shi)五(wu)五(wu)”期間為60%。從已公布的項(xiang)目(mu)中來看，光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)均與光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)形成配套，且(qie)在風(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)大(da)(da)(da)基(ji)地(di)中光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)的重量(liang)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)56%。考慮到未(wei)來光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)持續降(jiang)本、多能互補(bu)項(xiang)目(mu)中光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)比(bi)(bi)例(li)逐(zhu)漸提高，我(wo)們預計(ji)這一數字在“十(shi)五(wu)五(wu)”期間升至60%。

文(wen)章(zhang)來源：市值(zhi)風云客戶端(duan)，經濟日報(bao)，未來智庫，世紀(ji)新能(neng)源網