2018年,我國(guo)是世界(jie)第一能源生產(chan)國(guo)和消(xiao)費國(guo),同時還是第一煤炭生產(chan)國(guo)和消(xiao)費國(guo)、第一原油進(jin)口國(guo)(對外依存度71%)、第一天然(ran)氣進(jin)口國(guo)(對外依存度43%),此(ci)外還是第一電力生產(chan)國(guo)和消(xiao)費國(guo),擁有第一水電、風電、太陽能發(fa)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)。
我(wo)國(guo)要推動能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉型發(fa)展、保障國(guo)家能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全、參與國(guo)際(ji)(ji)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)治理,均離不(bu)開可(ke)(ke)(ke)用(yong)可(ke)(ke)(ke)信(xin)、可(ke)(ke)(ke)考可(ke)(ke)(ke)靠的(de)(de)(de)國(guo)際(ji)(ji)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)統計(ji)(ji)(ji)。當前,國(guo)際(ji)(ji)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)署(shu)、美國(guo)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)信(xin)息署(shu)、BP公司等(deng)在(zai)國(guo)際(ji)(ji)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)統計(ji)(ji)(ji)領域擁有較強(qiang)話(hua)語(yu)權,一(yi)些國(guo)際(ji)(ji)組(zu)織和行(xing)業協會在(zai)分品(pin)種、分部(bu)門能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)統計(ji)(ji)(ji)中(zhong)占據(ju)較大(da)優勢。因(yin)一(yi)手來源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)國(guo)際(ji)(ji)數據(ju)較難獲得(de),國(guo)際(ji)(ji)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)統計(ji)(ji)(ji)經常面臨“若不(bu)用(yong)此,別無(wu)其他”的(de)(de)(de)困境(jing)。然而(er),我(wo)國(guo)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)統計(ji)(ji)(ji)方法與國(guo)際(ji)(ji)常用(yong)方法不(bu)盡相同,還需(xu)進(jin)一(yi)步加強(qiang)融(rong)合對接,以便在(zai)對等(deng)透(tou)明的(de)(de)(de)環境(jing)下開展國(guo)際(ji)(ji)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對話(hua)與合作。
國網能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)研究院《全(quan)球(qiu)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)分析與展望》研究團隊多(duo)年持續開展全(quan)球(qiu)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)現狀(zhuang)數(shu)據(ju)的搜集整(zheng)理工作,本文(wen)簡要介(jie)紹(shao)主要國際(ji)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)統(tong)計(ji)的特點(dian),細分四個(ge)方面梳理對比其(qi)間(jian)異同(tong);結合實踐思考,總結中國能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)統(tong)計(ji)面臨(lin)的幾點(dian)挑(tiao)戰(zhan),并提出(chu)粗(cu)淺建議。
一、國際主要能源統計對比
當前(qian),國(guo)際(ji)能源(yuan)署、美國(guo)能源(yuan)信息(xi)署、BP公司等機構在國(guo)際(ji)能源(yuan)統(tong)計領域擁有較強話語(yu)權,其(qi)統(tong)計數(shu)據(ju)(ju)建立在科(ke)學扎實的統(tong)計制(zhi)度之上,統(tong)計指標系(xi)統(tong)全面(mian)、統(tong)計質量(liang)可(ke)信可(ke)靠、數(shu)據(ju)(ju)獲取規范(fan)便捷、數(shu)據(ju)(ju)展示豐(feng)富多樣。
具(ju)體來講(jiang),國(guo)際能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)署的統(tong)(tong)計(ji)數據(ju)最為權威,涉及(ji)絕大多數國(guo)家和(he)(he)地區,涵蓋所(suo)有能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)品(pin)種(zhong),深(shen)入部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)大類和(he)(he)具(ju)體行業,貫(guan)穿從(cong)生產(chan)(chan)貿易(yi)、加工轉換到終端消費(fei)的全鏈條,能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)夠提供嚴謹(jin)科學的能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)平(ping)(ping)衡表,只是數據(ju)時(shi)(shi)效性略(lve)差。美國(guo)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)信息(xi)署以美國(guo)國(guo)內能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)統(tong)(tong)計(ji)起家,國(guo)際能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)統(tong)(tong)計(ji)起步較(jiao)晚,僅涉及(ji)分(fen)區域重(zhong)點國(guo)家,未(wei)深(shen)入部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)和(he)(he)行業,指標限于(yu)儲量(liang)、產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、生產(chan)(chan)、貿易(yi)和(he)(he)消費(fei)等,時(shi)(shi)間上亦(yi)有所(suo)滯后。除國(guo)際能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)署統(tong)(tong)計(ji)外,BP能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)統(tong)(tong)計(ji)年(nian)鑒被(bei)引用次數最多,主(zhu)要(yao)是時(shi)(shi)效性高,全面覆蓋儲量(liang)、產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、生產(chan)(chan)、貿易(yi)、消費(fei)等方面,但主(zhu)要(yao)聚焦傳統(tong)(tong)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan),電力統(tong)(tong)計(ji)尚不細(xi)致,細(xi)分(fen)部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)仍(reng)待加強(qiang);由于(yu)部(bu)分(fen)數據(ju)為初(chu)步統(tong)(tong)計(ji)或估算結果,統(tong)(tong)計(ji)質量(liang)不可避免地成為了追求時(shi)(shi)效下的犧(xi)牲品(pin),品(pin)種(zhong)和(he)(he)部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)未(wei)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)相(xiang)互咬合致其無法編(bian)制能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)平(ping)(ping)衡表。
此外,聯合國經濟社會事務部及其他國際組織、某些(xie)能(neng)源(yuan)咨(zi)詢(xun)公司也擁(yong)有國際能(neng)源(yuan)統(tong)計(ji)數(shu)據庫,只(zhi)是影響較小、應用(yong)有限;國際可再(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)署、國際原子(zi)能(neng)機構等在具(ju)體品種統(tong)計(ji)上做了扎實工作;日本能(neng)源(yuan)經濟研究(jiu)所等研究(jiu)機構、埃克森美孚等能(neng)源(yuan)公司明(ming)確表示采用(yong)國際能(neng)源(yuan)署的統(tong)計(ji)數(shu)據,不再(zai)重復開展工作。
總(zong)體上,國際能源署、美國能源信(xin)息(xi)署、BP公(gong)司的統計數(shu)據(ju)在(zai)(zai)世界能源發展大趨(qu)勢上總(zong)體一(yi)致、出入(ru)較(jiao)小,但在(zai)(zai)能源單(dan)位、含(han)量假(jia)設、折算系數(shu)、品種分(fen)類等方面(mian)存在(zai)(zai)較(jiao)大差異(yi),并不適(shi)宜直接(jie)對比或(huo)交叉使用;在(zai)(zai)涉及到規模(mo)、增(zeng)速、占比等具體數(shu)值時,除了慎重(zhong)選擇(ze)數(shu)據(ju)來源,還(huan)需(xu)注(zhu)意區分(fen)和加(jia)以說明。
在(zai)能源(yuan)(yuan)單(dan)位(wei)方(fang)面,三家(jia)機(ji)構各(ge)選(xuan)擇(ze)了一個(ge)能源(yuan)(yuan)統計標準單(dan)位(wei),如國際能源(yuan)(yuan)署(shu)(shu)(shu)、BP公司選(xuan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)了百萬噸(dun)標準油(you)(mtoe)、美(mei)(mei)國能源(yuan)(yuan)信息(xi)(xi)(xi)署(shu)(shu)(shu)選(xuan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)了萬億(yi)英熱單(dan)位(wei)(qBtu)。針對(dui)具(ju)體能源(yuan)(yuan)品種,各(ge)機(ji)構結合(he)品種特點進行了個(ge)性化選(xuan)擇(ze):對(dui)于煤炭,美(mei)(mei)國能源(yuan)(yuan)信息(xi)(xi)(xi)署(shu)(shu)(shu)選(xuan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)了短噸(dun)(shortton,相當(dang)于0.9072噸(dun));對(dui)于石油(you),三家(jia)機(ji)構均(jun)(jun)選(xuan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)了百萬桶油(you)/天(tian)(tian)(mbd);對(dui)于天(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣,國際能源(yuan)(yuan)署(shu)(shu)(shu)選(xuan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)了十(shi)(shi)億(yi)立方(fang)米(mi)(bcm),美(mei)(mei)國能源(yuan)(yuan)信息(xi)(xi)(xi)署(shu)(shu)(shu)選(xuan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)了萬億(yi)立方(fang)英尺(tcf),BP公司選(xuan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)了十(shi)(shi)億(yi)立方(fang)英尺/天(tian)(tian)(bcfd);對(dui)于生物燃料,國際能源(yuan)(yuan)署(shu)(shu)(shu)、BP公司選(xuan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)了百萬噸(dun)標準油(you)/天(tian)(tian)(mboed),美(mei)(mei)國能源(yuan)(yuan)信息(xi)(xi)(xi)署(shu)(shu)(shu)選(xuan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)了百萬桶油(you)/天(tian)(tian)(mbd);對(dui)于電力,三家(jia)機(ji)構均(jun)(jun)選(xuan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)了十(shi)(shi)億(yi)千瓦時(TWh)。
表1:不(bu)同能(neng)源(yuan)統計機構使用(yong)的能(neng)源(yuan)單位
在含(han)量(liang)(liang)假(jia)設方面,三家(jia)機構統計方法的(de)不同(tong)主要(yao)(yao)體現在如何從實物量(liang)(liang)轉換至標(biao)準(zhun)量(liang)(liang)。因各機構采(cai)用(yong)的(de)能(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)含(han)量(liang)(liang)假(jia)設不同(tong),統計數值的(de)差異或(huo)達(da)10%左(zuo)右。具(ju)體地,美國(guo)(guo)能(neng)(neng)源信息署(shu)(shu)、BP公司(si)(si)對(dui)石(shi)油(you)、天(tian)然氣(qi)的(de)統計數值明顯高于國(guo)(guo)際能(neng)(neng)源署(shu)(shu),主要(yao)(yao)是(shi)美國(guo)(guo)能(neng)(neng)源信息署(shu)(shu)、BP公司(si)(si)采(cai)用(yong)了(le)熱(re)值的(de)“高線”,而(er)國(guo)(guo)際能(neng)(neng)源署(shu)(shu)采(cai)用(yong)了(le)熱(re)值的(de)“低線”。
在(zai)(zai)折算系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)方(fang)(fang)面,三家(jia)機(ji)構(gou)(gou)統(tong)計(ji)方(fang)(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)差(cha)異并(bing)不(bu)在(zai)(zai)煤炭、石油、天(tian)然氣等化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),而(er)(er)是(shi)在(zai)(zai)核(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。因(yin)為(wei)(wei)前者的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)含量(liang)(liang)相(xiang)對容易測量(liang)(liang),且(qie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供(gong)給消(xiao)費鏈也(ye)相(xiang)對容易追蹤;后(hou)者的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)量(liang)(liang)要么難以直(zhi)接測量(liang)(liang)得到,要么無法(fa)(fa)(fa)追蹤其(qi)產業鏈,通常的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)做法(fa)(fa)(fa)是(shi)首先獲得這些能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)所(suo)產生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng),然后(hou)除以折算系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)得到標準(zhun)單位(wei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)量(liang)(liang),而(er)(er)差(cha)異主要就在(zai)(zai)于各(ge)機(ji)構(gou)(gou)采用(yong)了(le)(le)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)折算系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)。在(zai)(zai)國(guo)際(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)署(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)統(tong)計(ji)中,核(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)折算系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)33%為(wei)(wei)典型(xing)核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站蒸汽(qi)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)器的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)假定效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)率(lv);水(shui)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)及其(qi)他能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(如潮汐能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng))采用(yong)了(le)(le)“捕(bu)獲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)思路,即只統(tong)計(ji)所(suo)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)含量(liang)(liang),或稱“電(dian)(dian)(dian)熱當量(liang)(liang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)”;地熱能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)折算系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)10%,體現了(le)(le)其(qi)較低的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)轉換(huan)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)率(lv);生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物質(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)選用(yong)35%,因(yin)其(qi)具有與化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)相(xiang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)燃性(xing)。在(zai)(zai)美國(guo)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)信息署(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)統(tong)計(ji)中,核(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)折算系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)與國(guo)際(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)署(shu)相(xiang)同(tong)(tong)(tong),為(wei)(wei)33%;水(shui)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、地熱能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等不(bu)可(ke)(ke)燃可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)選用(yong)了(le)(le)“化(hua)(hua)石燃料(liao)等效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)法(fa)(fa)(fa)”,折算系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)35%;生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物質(zhi)處理方(fang)(fang)式與國(guo)際(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)署(shu)類似,但折算系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)略高,為(wei)(wei)36%。在(zai)(zai)BP公(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)統(tong)計(ji)中,核(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)折算系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)均(jun)選用(yong)38%,為(wei)(wei)經合組(zu)織國(guo)家(jia)火(huo)力(li)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)平均(jun)值,全部采用(yong)“化(hua)(hua)石燃料(liao)等效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)法(fa)(fa)(fa)”。
表(biao)2:不(bu)同(tong)能源(yuan)統(tong)計機構使(shi)用的折算系數
在(zai)品種分(fen)(fen)類方面,主(zhu)要(yao)區別集中在(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)燃(ran)料(liao)、非(fei)(fei)電利(li)用(yong)、非(fei)(fei)商能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)三(san)個方面。就(jiu)生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)燃(ran)料(liao)而(er)言,差別主(zhu)要(yao)在(zai)于生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)乙醇和(he)生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you),區別是美國能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)信息署和(he)BP公(gong)(gong)司將其劃(hua)分(fen)(fen)為與石油(you)、天(tian)然氣類似的“液體燃(ran)料(liao)”范疇;而(er)國際能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)署將其劃(hua)分(fen)(fen)為生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)質(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)范疇。就(jiu)非(fei)(fei)電利(li)用(yong)而(er)言,BP公(gong)(gong)司只(zhi)統(tong)計(ji)可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的發電利(li)用(yong),而(er)不統(tong)計(ji)可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的直接發熱及其他利(li)用(yong),如太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)熱水器。就(jiu)非(fei)(fei)商能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)而(er)言,美國能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)信息署和(he)BP公(gong)(gong)司未將非(fei)(fei)市場(chang)(chang)化的生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)質(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)消費(傳統(tong)薪柴(chai)(chai)等)納入統(tong)計(ji),而(er)國際能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)署對非(fei)(fei)市場(chang)(chang)化的生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)質(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)消費進行了估計(ji)。
二、中國能源統計的挑戰與建議
中國能(neng)源統計經數十年發展(zhan),指標體(ti)系日臻(zhen)完(wan)善(shan)、數據(ju)質量持續提高、統計應用不斷深化(hua),有(you)力支撐了經濟增長、民(min)生改(gai)善(shan)和能(neng)源發展(zhan),但仍面臨一定挑(tiao)戰。
一(yi)是(shi)行(xing)(xing)業劃(hua)分(fen)、品種折(zhe)算(suan)(suan)與國(guo)際常(chang)用(yong)(yong)方式存在明(ming)顯差異。《中(zhong)國(guo)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)統計(ji)年(nian)鑒》中(zhong)部門劃(hua)分(fen)為(wei)三(san)次產(chan)業和居(ju)民生活,下列細(xi)分(fen)行(xing)(xing)業;而國(guo)際常(chang)用(yong)(yong)方式是(shi)分(fen)為(wei)工(gong)業、交通、建筑、其(qi)他等(deng),其(qi)中(zhong)建筑包(bao)(bao)括(kuo)居(ju)民消費(fei)、商業服務等(deng),其(qi)他中(zhong)還單(dan)列了非(fei)能(neng)(neng)利用(yong)(yong)。我國(guo)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)統計(ji)行(xing)(xing)業分(fen)類與經濟統計(ji)行(xing)(xing)業分(fen)類一(yi)致(zhi),具有鮮明(ming)的(de)國(guo)情特色,但無法直接與國(guo)際常(chang)用(yong)(yong)方式對應,給國(guo)際能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)合作交流帶來一(yi)定不便。此(ci)外,我國(guo)主要采用(yong)(yong)發電煤耗法將核能(neng)(neng)、可再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)折(zhe)算(suan)(suan)至一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)時還不包(bao)(bao)括(kuo)非(fei)市場(chang)化的(de)傳統生物質能(neng)(neng)。
二是(shi)數(shu)(shu)據獲(huo)取略有(you)不(bu)便,指標意義解(jie)釋(shi)較少(shao)。首先(xian),《中國(guo)能源(yuan)統(tong)(tong)計(ji)年(nian)(nian)鑒》每(mei)(mei)年(nian)(nian)以書籍和光盤的(de)形式進行發售,可線(xian)上查詢的(de)時間略有(you)滯后;其次,國(guo)家(jia)統(tong)(tong)計(ji)局(ju)每(mei)(mei)月(yue)(yue)公布能源(yuan)生產消(xiao)費(fei)情(qing)況,國(guo)家(jia)數(shu)(shu)據庫提供月(yue)(yue)度和季度數(shu)(shu)據,但(dan)以實物(wu)量(liang)為主,數(shu)(shu)據的(de)全局(ju)性和系(xi)統(tong)(tong)性受到影響;再(zai)次,能源(yuan)統(tong)(tong)計(ji)中有(you)關(guan)數(shu)(shu)據來源(yuan)、品(pin)種分(fen)類、折算系(xi)數(shu)(shu)等解(jie)釋(shi)說明較少(shao),在與行業內部(bu)統(tong)(tong)計(ji)出現差異時難以取舍決斷。
三是(shi)統(tong)計(ji)顆粒度大(da)、斷層(ceng)空(kong)白多(duo)(duo)。當前,我國能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)統(tong)計(ji)的(de)公開(kai)信(xin)息多(duo)(duo)是(shi)國家(jia)層(ceng)面,數據(ju)質(zhi)量總(zong)體較高,指標體系相對(dui)完(wan)善,在能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)戰略制定、國際能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)交流中得到(dao)廣泛(fan)應用。《中國能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)統(tong)計(ji)年鑒》中有(you)省(sheng)級能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)實物(wu)量,但(dan)沒有(you)標準量,公開(kai)數據(ju)未進行(xing)統(tong)一折算以(yi)方便使(shi)用。在省(sheng)級層(ceng)面,多(duo)(duo)數省(sheng)份未開(kai)展獨立的(de)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)統(tong)計(ji),一些省(sheng)份能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)統(tong)計(ji)質(zhi)量較差、變動頻繁、口徑不清,不便于進行(xing)橫向比較,也(ye)難以(yi)進行(xing)歷史追溯。此外,地級市及以(yi)下層(ceng)面的(de)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)統(tong)計(ji)空(kong)白較多(duo)(duo)。
基于工作實踐和(he)思考,我們(men)對中國能(neng)源統計(ji)發展提出三點粗淺建議,謹供(gong)參考。
一是提高數(shu)(shu)據(ju)質量,延伸統計(ji)層級(ji)。建議適當調(diao)整以(yi)(yi)工業生(sheng)產為主要思路的能(neng)源平(ping)衡表編制方式(shi),目前行業劃分需要繼續保留,但可(ke)探(tan)索以(yi)(yi)國際常用(yong)方式(shi)進(jin)行重構展示(shi);加強省級(ji)能(neng)源統計(ji)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)治理,進(jin)行標準化折算以(yi)(yi)便(bian)使用(yong);加強地級(ji)市及以(yi)(yi)下層面能(neng)源統計(ji)能(neng)力建設,探(tan)索開展城市能(neng)源統計(ji)。
二是創新獲取(qu)(qu)方式(shi),增強(qiang)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)權威。建議(yi)優化能(neng)源(yuan)統(tong)計數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)發(fa)布機制,及時提供可(ke)自行編輯、便(bian)于(yu)使用的月(yue)度(du)/年度(du)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju);以統(tong)計局國(guo)家數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)庫為依托公開發(fa)布能(neng)源(yuan)統(tong)計數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju),便(bian)于(yu)獲取(qu)(qu)、下(xia)載、處理和展示(shi);加強(qiang)與行業協(xie)會、能(neng)源(yuan)企業的交流協(xie)作,增強(qiang)國(guo)家能(neng)源(yuan)統(tong)計的權威性(xing)。
三(san)是深化開(kai)放(fang)合作,融入國際體(ti)系。建議增加(jia)能源(yuan)統(tong)計(ji)(ji)指標、方法(fa)、流程的(de)解(jie)釋說(shuo)明文件,便于進行國際對比(bi)和自行計(ji)(ji)算;參與由國際機構牽頭的(de)能源(yuan)統(tong)計(ji)(ji)協調機制,以更加(jia)開(kai)放(fang)的(de)姿態共(gong)同(tong)打(da)造國際能源(yuan)統(tong)計(ji)(ji)規(gui)范,有(you)力支撐新時(shi)代全方位(wei)開(kai)放(fang)背(bei)景下的(de)能源(yuan)高質量發展。