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近日，中電聯發布2019-2020年度全國電力供需形勢分析預測報告，預計2020年底全國發電裝機容量21.3億千瓦，增長6%左右；非化石能源發電裝機合計9.3億千瓦左右，占總裝機容量比重上升至43.6%，比2019年底提高1.7個百分點左右。

報告全文如下：

2019年(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)電力生產(chan)運行(xing)平(ping)穩，電力供(gong)需總(zong)體平(ping)衡。全(quan)(quan)年(nian)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用電量(liang)7.23萬(wan)億(yi)千瓦時，比(bi)上年(nian)增長(chang)4.5%，第三產(chan)業和城(cheng)鄉居民生活(huo)用電量(liang)對全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用電量(liang)增長(chang)貢獻(xian)率為(wei)51%。2019年(nian)底(di)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)(quan)口徑發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機容(rong)量(liang)20.1億(yi)千瓦，電力延續綠色低(di)碳發(fa)(fa)展態(tai)勢，非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機容(rong)量(liang)占(zhan)比(bi)繼續提高(gao)；非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電量(liang)保(bao)持快(kuai)速(su)增長(chang)；跨(kua)區(qu)、跨(kua)省(sheng)送(song)電量(liang)實現兩位數增長(chang)。預計2020年(nian)，電力消費將延續平(ping)穩增長(chang)態(tai)勢，全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用電量(liang)增長(chang)4%-5%。預計年(nian)底(di)發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機容(rong)量(liang)21.3億(yi)千瓦，其中非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機比(bi)重(zhong)繼續上升。預計全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)電力供(gong)需總(zong)體平(ping)衡，局部(bu)地區(qu)高(gao)峰時段電力供(gong)應偏緊。

一、2019年全國電力供需情況

（一）全社會用電量平穩增長，第三產業和城鄉居民生活用電的拉動效果明顯

2019年，全(quan)(quan)國全(quan)(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)電量(liang)7.23萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，比上年增(zeng)長4.5%。全(quan)(quan)國人均(jun)(jun)用(yong)電量(liang)5161千(qian)瓦(wa)時，人均(jun)(jun)生活用(yong)電量(liang)732千(qian)瓦(wa)時。各季度全(quan)(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)速分(fen)別為5.5%、4.5%、3.4%和4.7%。電力消費主要(yao)特點有：

一(yi)(yi)是第一(yi)(yi)產業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)平穩增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。2019年，第一(yi)(yi)產業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)780億千瓦時(shi)，比上年增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.5%。其中(zhong)，漁(yu)業(ye)、畜牧業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)8.2%和5.0%。第一(yi)(yi)產業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)對(dui)全社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的貢獻率(lv)為(wei)1.1%，拉動全社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)0.05個百分點。

二(er)是第(di)二(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)及(ji)其(qi)制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)保持(chi)中(zhong)低(di)速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)，第(di)二(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)4.94萬億千瓦時，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.1%；各季度增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)分別為(wei)(wei)3.0%、3.1%、2.7%和3.5%。第(di)二(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)占全社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重為(wei)(wei)68.3%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)降低(di)0.9個百分點(dian)(dian)。第(di)二(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)對全社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的貢獻率為(wei)(wei)47.9%，拉動2.1個百分點(dian)(dian)。制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.9%，其(qi)中(zhong)，四大高載能行業(ye)(ye)[1]用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.0%，其(qi)中(zhong)建材行業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)5.3%，黑色行業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)4.5%，化工行業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)與上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)持(chi)平，有(you)色行業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)-0.5%；高技術及(ji)裝備制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)[2]用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.2%；消費品制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)[3]用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.2%；其(qi)他制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)[4]用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.3%。

三是第(di)三產(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)保持較快(kuai)增長。2019年(nian)，第(di)三產(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)1.19萬億千瓦時(shi)，比上(shang)年(nian)增長9.5%，各季度增速(su)分別為10.1%、8.6%、7.7%和(he)(he)(he)11.8%。其中，信息(xi)傳(chuan)輸/軟件和(he)(he)(he)信息(xi)技術服(fu)(fu)務(wu)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增長16.2%，租賃和(he)(he)(he)商務(wu)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)業(ye)(ye)、房地產(chan)業(ye)(ye)、批發和(he)(he)(he)零售業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增速(su)均(jun)在10%以(yi)上(shang)。

四是(shi)城鄉(xiang)(xiang)居(ju)(ju)民(min)(min)生活用電量中速增(zeng)長。2019年，城鄉(xiang)(xiang)居(ju)(ju)民(min)(min)生活用電量1.02萬億(yi)千瓦時，比上(shang)年增(zeng)長5.7%；各季度增(zeng)速分(fen)別為(wei)11.0%、7.7%、1.2%和(he)3.7%。分(fen)城鄉(xiang)(xiang)看，城鎮居(ju)(ju)民(min)(min)、鄉(xiang)(xiang)村居(ju)(ju)民(min)(min)用電量分(fen)別比上(shang)年增(zeng)長5.5%和(he)5.9%。

五是(shi)第(di)三(san)(san)產業(ye)(ye)和城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鄉(xiang)居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)對全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)的貢(gong)(gong)獻(xian)率合計超過50%。2019年，第(di)三(san)(san)產業(ye)(ye)和城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鄉(xiang)居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活用(yong)電(dian)(dian)分別拉動(dong)全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)1.5和0.8個百(bai)分點(dian)。第(di)三(san)(san)產業(ye)(ye)和城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鄉(xiang)居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)對全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)的貢(gong)(gong)獻(xian)率分別為33.1%和17.9%，兩者合計達到51.0%，其中第(di)三(san)(san)產業(ye)(ye)貢(gong)(gong)獻(xian)率比上年提(ti)高(gao)10.1個百(bai)分點(dian)。

六是西(xi)部地區用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增速領先。2019年，東、中、西(xi)部和東北地區全社會用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)分(fen)別比上年增長(chang)3.6%、4.5%、6.2%、3.7%，占全國比重(zhong)分(fen)別為47.2%、18.7%、28.3%、5.8%，全國共有28個省份用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)實(shi)現正增長(chang)。

（二）電力延續綠色低碳發展趨勢，非化石能源發電裝機和發電量均保持較快增長

截(jie)至2019年(nian)(nian)底，全國全口徑發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機容(rong)(rong)量(liang)20.1億千瓦(wa)，比上(shang)年(nian)(nian)底增(zeng)(zeng)長5.8%，其(qi)中全國全口徑非化石能源發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機容(rong)(rong)量(liang)8.4億千瓦(wa)，比上(shang)年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)長8.7%，占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)機容(rong)(rong)量(liang)的(de)比重為41.9%，比上(shang)年(nian)(nian)底提高1.1個百分點。2019年(nian)(nian)，發電(dian)(dian)設備利用(yong)小(xiao)時3825小(xiao)時，比上(shang)年(nian)(nian)降(jiang)低54小(xiao)時。全國主(zhu)要電(dian)(dian)力企(qi)業合(he)計完成投(tou)資7995億元，比上(shang)年(nian)(nian)下降(jiang)2.0%。

電力供應主要特點有：

一是全國(guo)(guo)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量突破(po)20億千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。截至2019年(nian)(nian)底，全國(guo)(guo)全口徑(jing)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量20.1億千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長5.8%。分(fen)類型看，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)3.6億千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)4874萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、并網(wang)(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)2.1億千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、并網(wang)(wang)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)2.0億千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)11.9億千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量中，煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)10.4億千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、氣(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)9022萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。2019年(nian)(nian)，全國(guo)(guo)新增(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量10173萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，比(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)少投產(chan)(chan)2612萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)；其中新增(zeng)(zeng)非化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量6389萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，占新增(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)總(zong)容量的62.8%。全國(guo)(guo)新增(zeng)(zeng)并網(wang)(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)2574萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)和(he)(he)2681萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，分(fen)別(bie)比(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)多投產(chan)(chan)447萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)和(he)(he)少投產(chan)(chan)1844萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。新增(zeng)(zeng)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、氣(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)2989萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)和(he)(he)629萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，分(fen)別(bie)比(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)少投產(chan)(chan)67萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)和(he)(he)255萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。

二是核電(dian)、風電(dian)和(he)太(tai)陽(yang)能發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)快速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)(quan)口徑發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)為7.33萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.7%。全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)非化(hua)石能源發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)2.39萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)10.4%，占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)比(bi)(bi)重為32.6%，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)高1.7個百(bai)分(fen)點，其中(zhong)，水電(dian)、核電(dian)、并(bing)網風電(dian)和(he)并(bing)網太(tai)陽(yang)能分(fen)別(bie)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)5.7%、18.2%、10.9%和(he)26.5%。全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)(quan)口徑火電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)5.05萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.4%；其中(zhong)，煤(mei)電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)4.56萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)1.7%。

三(san)是(shi)水電和太陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電設備利用小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提高。2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，水電發(fa)電設備利用小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)3726小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提高119小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)；并(bing)網太陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電1285小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提高55小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)；并(bing)網風(feng)電2082小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)降(jiang)(jiang)低21小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)；核電7394小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)降(jiang)(jiang)低149小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)；火電4293小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)降(jiang)(jiang)低85小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，其中煤(mei)電4416小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)降(jiang)(jiang)低79小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，氣電2646小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)降(jiang)(jiang)低121小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)。

四是農網(wang)升級(ji)改造及(ji)配網(wang)建設是電網(wang)投(tou)資(zi)重(zhong)(zhong)點，跨(kua)區跨(kua)省送(song)電量(liang)(liang)較快增長。2019年(nian)，全國(guo)(guo)電網(wang)工(gong)程建設完成(cheng)投(tou)資(zi)4856億(yi)(yi)(yi)元，其中110千(qian)伏(fu)(fu)及(ji)以(yi)下(xia)電網(wang)投(tou)資(zi)占(zhan)電網(wang)投(tou)資(zi)的比重(zhong)(zhong)為63.3%，比上(shang)年(nian)提高5.9個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點。全國(guo)(guo)基建新增220千(qian)伏(fu)(fu)及(ji)以(yi)上(shang)變電設備容(rong)量(liang)(liang)23042萬千(qian)伏(fu)(fu)安(an)，比上(shang)年(nian)多(duo)投(tou)產828萬千(qian)伏(fu)(fu)安(an)；新增220千(qian)伏(fu)(fu)及(ji)以(yi)上(shang)輸電線(xian)路(lu)長度34022千(qian)米，比上(shang)年(nian)少投(tou)產7070千(qian)米；新增直(zhi)流換流容(rong)量(liang)(liang)2200萬千(qian)瓦，比上(shang)年(nian)減少1000萬千(qian)瓦。2019年(nian)，全國(guo)(guo)跨(kua)區、跨(kua)省送(song)電量(liang)(liang)分(fen)(fen)別完成(cheng)5405億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦時和(he)14440億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦時，分(fen)(fen)別比上(shang)年(nian)增長12.2%和(he)11.4%。

五是電(dian)力燃料(liao)供應(ying)由緊平(ping)衡(heng)轉向總(zong)體(ti)平(ping)衡(heng)，電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)全(quan)年(nian)綜合(he)價(jia)超過綠色區間上限。煤(mei)(mei)礦優質產能逐步釋放，進(jin)口煤(mei)(mei)支撐作(zuo)用較好發揮，2019年(nian)電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)供應(ying)總(zong)體(ti)有保(bao)障。電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)格前高后低，震蕩幅度收窄(zhai)，全(quan)年(nian)綜合(he)價(jia)仍(reng)超過《關(guan)于印發平(ping)抑(yi)煤(mei)(mei)炭市場價(jia)格異(yi)常波動的備忘錄的通知(zhi)》（發改運行〔2016〕2808號）規(gui)定(ding)的綠色區間上限（500-570元/噸）。

（三）全國電力供需總體平衡，局部地區采取了有序用電措施

2019年(nian)，全國電力(li)供(gong)需總(zong)體平衡。東北(bei)、西(xi)北(bei)區(qu)域電力(li)供(gong)應(ying)能力(li)富(fu)余(yu)；華北(bei)、華東、華中(zhong)、南(nan)方區(qu)域電力(li)供(gong)需總(zong)體平衡，其中(zhong)，蒙西(xi)、冀北(bei)、遼寧、浙江(jiang)、江(jiang)西(xi)、湖北(bei)、海南(nan)等省級電網(wang)在部(bu)分(fen)時段采(cai)取了有序用電措施，蒙西(xi)電網(wang)從前幾年(nian)的電力(li)供(gong)應(ying)能力(li)富(fu)余(yu)轉(zhuan)為2019年(nian)以來的電力(li)供(gong)應(ying)偏(pian)緊。

二、2020年全國電力供需形勢預測

（一）電力消費延續平穩增長態勢

2020年(nian)(nian)在穩(wen)中求進工(gong)作總(zong)基調(diao)(diao)和國(guo)家宏(hong)觀政策逆(ni)周期調(diao)(diao)節的大背(bei)景下，2020年(nian)(nian)全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用電量(liang)將(jiang)延續平(ping)穩(wen)增長，在沒有(you)大范(fan)圍極端氣溫影響(xiang)的情(qing)況(kuang)下，預計2020年(nian)(nian)全(quan)國(guo)全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用電量(liang)比2019年(nian)(nian)增長4%-5%。

（二）非化石能源發電裝機比重將繼續提高

預計(ji)2020年(nian)全國基(ji)建新增(zeng)發電(dian)裝機容(rong)(rong)量1.2億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，其中(zhong)非化石(shi)能(neng)源發電(dian)裝機投產8700萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)。預計(ji)2020年(nian)底全國發電(dian)裝機容(rong)(rong)量21.3億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，增(zeng)長(chang)6%左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)；非化石(shi)能(neng)源發電(dian)裝機合計(ji)9.3億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，占總裝機容(rong)(rong)量比重上升至43.6%，比2019年(nian)底提(ti)高1.7個百分(fen)點左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)。

（三）全國電力供需保持總體平衡

預計全國電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)總體(ti)平(ping)衡。分區(qu)(qu)域(yu)看，預計華(hua)北(bei)、華(hua)中區(qu)(qu)域(yu)部分時段電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)偏緊；華(hua)東、南方區(qu)(qu)域(yu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)總體(ti)平(ping)衡；東北(bei)、西北(bei)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應能力(li)富(fu)余。

三、有關建議

2020年(nian)是“十三(san)五(wu)”規劃的(de)收官(guan)之年(nian)，也是實(shi)現“兩個翻番(fan)”目標、全面建成小康社(she)會的(de)關鍵之年(nian)。電(dian)力行(xing)業要認真貫徹落(luo)實(shi)中央經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)工(gong)作會議(yi)(yi)及全國發展(zhan)改革工(gong)作會議(yi)(yi)和全國能(neng)源工(gong)作會議(yi)(yi)精神，為推動經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)社(she)會持續健康發展(zhan)、打好三(san)大攻堅戰、精準脫貧提供電(dian)力保(bao)障，切實(shi)助力實(shi)體(ti)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發展(zhan)，結合當前經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)形勢及電(dian)力供需(xu)分(fen)析與預測(ce)研究，提出有關建議(yi)(yi)如下：

（一）多措并舉，提升電力高質量可持續保供能力

一(yi)是更多以市(shi)場(chang)方(fang)式降低(di)(di)社會總體(ti)用能成本(ben)。進一(yi)步加(jia)強(qiang)全國統(tong)一(yi)電(dian)力市(shi)場(chang)的頂層設(she)計和統(tong)籌協調，科學規劃(hua)設(she)置不同范疇(chou)的交(jiao)易品種(zhong)，發揮市(shi)場(chang)對資源配置的決定(ding)性(xing)作用；結合各(ge)地電(dian)網發展(zhan)階(jie)段、電(dian)網運行(xing)特性(xing)、電(dian)價(jia)承受能力等實際情況，差(cha)異化(hua)核(he)定(ding)第二(er)監管(guan)周(zhou)期輸配電(dian)價(jia)水平；合理確定(ding)關鍵核(he)價(jia)參數，科學修訂輸配電(dian)價(jia)定(ding)價(jia)辦法(fa)，在降低(di)(di)社會用能成本(ben)的同時(shi)，保障電(dian)網企業可(ke)持續安全保供和履(lv)行(xing)社會責任(ren)的能力。

二(er)是推動(dong)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板塊穩步轉(zhuan)型。利用國內國際兩(liang)個(ge)市(shi)場穩定電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)供應(ying)，平抑電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)價格；建立完(wan)善(shan)容(rong)量(liang)市(shi)場及輔助(zhu)服務補償機制，逐步由單一(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價向(xiang)兩(liang)部(bu)制電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價過渡，運用市(shi)場化(hua)手段(duan)推動(dong)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)企業(ye)轉(zhuan)型發(fa)(fa)展；同時，給予煤(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)企業(ye)一(yi)定的專項資金和專項債轉(zhuan)股政(zheng)策支持，保(bao)障火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)企業(ye)更好為全(quan)社會服務，發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)系統調節(jie)兜底(di)保(bao)供的基礎作(zuo)用和集中供暖供熱的保(bao)民(min)生作(zuo)用。

三是(shi)合理引導新能源產(chan)業健康發展。保(bao)持產(chan)業政策(ce)連(lian)續性，控制補貼退坡的節奏和速度(du)，確保(bao)風電、光伏(fu)等產(chan)業鏈平穩(wen)運行發展。發揮金(jin)融市場(chang)作用，開發針對(dui)清潔能源的融資品種，將應收補貼款(kuan)納入流貸支持范(fan)圍(wei)，解決(jue)全行業補貼資金(jin)缺口(kou)問(wen)題。

（二）協調發展，提高電力資源配置效率

一是統籌源(yuan)網荷儲(chu)發(fa)展(zhan)。推進建設(she)發(fa)展(zhan)分布式(shi)與集中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)式(shi)的清潔能(neng)源(yuan)供(gong)能(neng)方式(shi)，充分發(fa)揮電(dian)力(li)在能(neng)源(yuan)轉型中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心作用和電(dian)網的樞紐作用，聚焦用戶需求，通過智能(neng)化電(dian)力(li)設(she)備(bei)及調節手段實(shi)現源(yuan)、網、荷、儲(chu)的整體優化，進一步提高(gao)能(neng)源(yuan)資源(yuan)的配置能(neng)力(li)。

二是(shi)提(ti)高電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統調節(jie)能力(li)，破解風電(dian)(dian)、光伏等新(xin)能源(yuan)大規模并網及電(dian)(dian)力(li)輸送問題，保障(zhang)新(xin)能源(yuan)消(xiao)納。通(tong)過建立完(wan)善配(pei)套政策(ce)和市場機制，提(ti)高企(qi)業(ye)積(ji)極性，推動氣電(dian)(dian)、抽蓄等系統靈活性調節(jie)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)建設，同時，要加快完(wan)成“十三五(wu)”煤電(dian)(dian)靈活性改(gai)造(zao)目標，推動煤電(dian)(dian)企(qi)業(ye)轉型升級。

（三）政策引導，促進電力高效利用

一(yi)是進一(yi)步推(tui)進電(dian)(dian)能(neng)替(ti)(ti)(ti)代(dai)。在需求(qiu)側領域合理實施電(dian)(dian)能(neng)替(ti)(ti)(ti)代(dai)，不斷創新替(ti)(ti)(ti)代(dai)方式和(he)內容，進一(yi)步擴大電(dian)(dian)能(neng)替(ti)(ti)(ti)代(dai)范(fan)圍和(he)實施規模，擴大電(dian)(dian)力(li)消(xiao)費市場，促(cu)進大氣污染治理。

二(er)是(shi)加強電(dian)力需求側管理，探索實(shi)施需求響應和精益化的(de)有(you)序(xu)用電(dian)；進一步(bu)完善峰谷(gu)分時電(dian)價機制，以及居民階梯(ti)電(dian)價等相關政策，不斷提高電(dian)力占終端(duan)能源消費比重(zhong)，全(quan)力推(tui)進電(dian)氣化進程(cheng)。

三是加大轉供電環(huan)節的清理(li)整頓，在(zai)降低企業用(yong)電成本以(yi)提升企業經營效益、提振實體(ti)經濟的政(zheng)策環(huan)境下，引導和幫助電力用(yong)戶用(yong)好政(zheng)策紅利，提升用(yong)電效率。