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內容提要：碳中和將深度改變未來能源系統，碳中和愿景下中國能源轉型的三大趨勢：一是能源系統電氣化，到2050年一次能源電能轉化的比重和電能占終端能源消費的比重預計將分別提高到80%和60%左右；二是電力系統低碳化，預計非化石能源發電比重將由當前的三分之一提高到2050年的84%-90%；三是能源電力系統去中心化，能源開發利用方式將由集中式轉向分布式，能源系統形態將發生深刻變革。

碳(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)愿景下能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)的(de)核心是(shi)零碳(tan)、低碳(tan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對高碳(tan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)逐(zhu)步替代，是(shi)非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費比重的(de)大(da)幅度提高，這將深(shen)度改變(bian)未來能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)。由(you)于非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)主要是(shi)通過(guo)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)為電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)供終端(duan)使用(yong)，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費比重的(de)提高必(bi)然(ran)會提高能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水平：一方面，一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)比重趨于提高；另一方面，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)占終端(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費的(de)比重趨于提高。對于電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)而(er)言，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費比重的(de)大(da)幅度提高則意味著電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結構發生深(shen)度改變(bian)，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)比重將在電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)中(zhong)(zhong)逐(zhu)步占據主導地(di)位(wei)。此外，考慮到(dao)非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)尤其(qi)是(shi)風(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)分(fen)散性(xing)和(he)(he)間歇(xie)性(xing)特征，能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)形(xing)態也必(bi)將發生深(shen)刻變(bian)革(ge)，需要集中(zhong)(zhong)式(shi)與分(fen)布式(shi)并舉開發利用(yong)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。因此，能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)低碳(tan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)和(he)(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)去中(zhong)(zhong)心化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)是(shi)碳(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)愿景下能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)的(de)三(san)大(da)趨勢，也是(shi)三(san)大(da)必(bi)由(you)之路。

一、碳中和愿景下中國能源轉型趨勢之一：能源系統電氣化

過去二十(shi)年(nian)(nian)間，隨著經(jing)濟社(she)會快(kuai)(kuai)速(su)發展(zhan)、城市化(hua)進程加速(su)和科技水平不斷進步(bu)，中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)電(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)水平穩步(bu)提升。電(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)水平在能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)生產側主要體現(xian)為一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)通過電(dian)能(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)的(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)，即一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)用于(yu)發電(dian)的(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)，在消(xiao)費(fei)側主要體現(xian)為電(dian)能(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)端能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)的(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)。如圖1所(suo)示：在生產側，一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)能(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)的(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)從2000年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)35%左右(you)逐步(bu)提高到2020年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)45%左右(you)；在消(xiao)費(fei)側，電(dian)能(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)端能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)的(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)從2000年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)不到15%逐步(bu)提高到2020年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)27%左右(you)。近年(nian)(nian)來(lai)，在能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)革命戰(zhan)略引領下(xia)，可再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)發展(zhan)和終(zhong)端電(dian)能(neng)(neng)替代(dai)取得了較快(kuai)(kuai)進展(zhan)，電(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)水平提升較快(kuai)(kuai)。

圖1 2000-2020年中國電氣化水平

注：2000-2019年數據(ju)來自(zi)《中國(guo)能源統計(ji)年鑒》；2020年數據(ju)來自(zi)國(guo)家能源局發布(bu)

碳中和愿景(jing)下能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統綠色低碳轉型，一方(fang)(fang)面(mian)，需(xu)要加快調整一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)結構(gou)，大(da)幅度提升非化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費比(bi)重；另一方(fang)(fang)面(mian)，需(xu)要加快改變終(zhong)端(duan)(duan)部(bu)門(men)用(yong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)方(fang)(fang)式(shi)，實施電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)替(ti)代。現階(jie)段工業(ye)、交通(tong)、建筑等(deng)終(zhong)端(duan)(duan)部(bu)門(men)的(de)化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費量(liang)和二氧(yang)化碳排(pai)放(fang)(fang)量(liang)仍居高位，隨(sui)著生(sheng)產側非化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)大(da)比(bi)例(li)接入電(dian)力系(xi)統，加強終(zhong)端(duan)(duan)部(bu)門(men)電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)替(ti)代將可(ke)以有效削減(jian)(jian)煤炭等(deng)化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費從而減(jian)(jian)少二氧(yang)化碳排(pai)放(fang)(fang)。在生(sheng)產側和消費側兩(liang)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)的(de)協同作用(yong)下，未來能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統電(dian)氣化水(shui)平必然會進一步提升。

在(zai)生產側，一(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)通(tong)過電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重為煤炭(tan)、石(shi)油、天然氣和(he)(he)(he)非(fei)(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)不同(tong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)品種(zhong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重的(de)(de)(de)加權平(ping)均(jun)，權重為一(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費結(jie)構(gou)。當前，中國(guo)(guo)煤炭(tan)用(yong)于(yu)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重為52%左(zuo)右(you)，而(er)在(zai)美國(guo)(guo)等發達國(guo)(guo)家煤炭(tan)用(yong)于(yu)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重超過90%；中國(guo)(guo)天然氣用(yong)于(yu)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重為14%左(zuo)右(you)，而(er)世界(jie)平(ping)均(jun)水(shui)平(ping)為30%左(zuo)右(you)①。可(ke)以預計，在(zai)碳中和(he)(he)(he)大背景(jing)(jing)下(xia)，一(yi)(yi)方面，煤炭(tan)等化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)消(xiao)費量將(jiang)(jiang)受到控制(zhi)而(er)逐步減少②；另一(yi)(yi)方面，化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)利用(yong)方式也會趨于(yu)清潔(jie)高效，通(tong)過電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重將(jiang)(jiang)逐步提高。本文假定(ding)(ding)到2050年煤炭(tan)和(he)(he)(he)天然氣用(yong)于(yu)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重分別提到95%和(he)(he)(he)35%③。非(fei)(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)方面，考慮到碳中和(he)(he)(he)背景(jing)(jing)下(xia)生物(wu)質燃料、地(di)(di)熱(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、光(guang)熱(re)等領域(yu)的(de)(de)(de)發展，假定(ding)(ding)非(fei)(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)通(tong)過電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重維持在(zai)90%左(zuo)右(you)。一(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費結(jie)構(gou)方面，本文參(can)照林衛斌(bin)和(he)(he)(he)吳嘉儀（2021）的(de)(de)(de)情景(jing)(jing)設(she)定(ding)(ding)，具體設(she)定(ding)(ding)如(ru)(ru)表(biao)1所示。根據上述情景(jing)(jing)設(she)定(ding)(ding)，可(ke)以推算出一(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重。如(ru)(ru)圖2所示，到2050年一(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)達到80%左(zuo)右(you)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力將(jiang)(jiang)在(zai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)供應中占(zhan)據絕(jue)對主(zhu)導地(di)(di)位。

表(biao)1能源消費結構情(qing)景設定

圖2電氣化水(shui)平變化趨勢研判

在消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)側(ce)，基于能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系統中一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)與終(zhong)端(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的平(ping)(ping)衡關系，可(ke)以(yi)推算(suan)出電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)端(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)。計算(suan)公(gong)式為(wei)：電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)端(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)=（一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)×電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)）/（一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)×電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)+一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)非電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)×加工轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)）。通(tong)過能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)平(ping)(ping)衡表計算(suan)可(ke)得(de)過去五年(nian)一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)約(yue)為(wei)38%，非電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)加工轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)約(yue)為(wei)98%。結合上(shang)文(wen)推算(suan)出的一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)，可(ke)以(yi)推算(suan)出電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)端(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)。如圖2所示，到2050年(nian)電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)端(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)提升(sheng)至60%左右，電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)將逐步成為(wei)終(zhong)端(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)主(zhu)體。

二、碳中和愿景下中國能源轉型趨勢之二：電力系統低碳化

當前，煤電(dian)(dian)在中國電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)中仍(reng)占主導地位，裝機容量比(bi)重近50%，發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量比(bi)重超過60%。這種以高碳能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)為(wei)主的(de)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)結構不可(ke)避(bi)免(mian)地造成二氧化(hua)碳的(de)大(da)量排(pai)放(fang)，難(nan)以滿足碳中和的(de)要求。未來隨(sui)著(zhu)電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)水平持續提升(sheng)，電(dian)(dian)力(li)需求不斷增加，電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)在能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)型和碳減排(pai)中的(de)作(zuo)用將(jiang)尤為(wei)凸顯(xian)。在能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)生產側，由于非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)主要通過發(fa)電(dian)(dian)進(jin)行轉(zhuan)化(hua)，非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)對煤炭等傳(chuan)統(tong)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)清潔(jie)替(ti)代將(jiang)有效作(zuo)用于電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)。隨(sui)著(zhu)非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)大(da)力(li)發(fa)展，電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)結構將(jiang)逐漸優化(hua)，電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)將(jiang)趨(qu)于綠(lv)色低(di)碳化(hua)。

對(dui)于(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統的(de)低碳化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)程度，可以(yi)用非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，即總發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量中(zhong)非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量的(de)占比(bi)(bi)(bi)進(jin)行衡量。具體公式為(wei)(wei)(wei)：非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)=（非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)×非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)）/一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)。考慮到非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)主要通過轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)為(wei)(wei)(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)而得(de)到利用，非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)用于(yu)(yu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)變化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)不會(hui)太(tai)大。因此，非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)變化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)將(jiang)(jiang)主要取決于(yu)(yu)非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)變化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)。以(yi)2020年為(wei)(wei)(wei)例，非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)15.9%，一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)約為(wei)(wei)(wei)45%。與(yu)此相對(dui)應地，非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)33%左右。未來非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)都(dou)將(jiang)(jiang)趨于(yu)(yu)提(ti)高(gao)，非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)也將(jiang)(jiang)隨之提(ti)高(gao)。

圖3非化石能源發電占(zhan)比趨勢

結合非(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)情景設定以(yi)(yi)及一(yi)次(ci)(ci)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)轉化(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)的(de)趨勢，可以(yi)(yi)研(yan)判非(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)。與(yu)非(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)高(gao)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)和低比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)兩種情景相(xiang)對(dui)應的(de)，存在非(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)高(gao)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)與(yu)低比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)兩種情景。如(ru)圖(tu)3所(suo)示，未來三十年(nian)，非(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)量占(zhan)總(zong)發電(dian)(dian)量的(de)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)將持(chi)續提(ti)升，到(dao)2050年(nian)，如(ru)果一(yi)次(ci)(ci)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)中非(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)達到(dao)75%-80%，則非(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)量比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)將高(gao)達84%-90%。非(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在成為一(yi)次(ci)(ci)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供應主體(ti)的(de)同時(shi)也將成為電(dian)(dian)力(li)供給的(de)主力(li)軍，電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)將呈現深度(du)低碳化(hua)(hua)(hua)特征(zheng)。

三、碳中和愿景下中國能源轉型趨勢之三：能源電力系統去中心化

滿足碳中(zhong)(zhong)和下能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉(zhuan)型要(yao)求的(de)(de)(de)(de)非化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)尤其是(shi)風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)開(kai)(kai)發利用要(yao)求能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)(tong)形態發生(sheng)深刻變(bian)(bian)革(ge)。由于風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等具有(you)間(jian)歇性的(de)(de)(de)(de)特征，在傳統(tong)(tong)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)式(shi)開(kai)(kai)發利用模(mo)式(shi)下，需要(yao)在大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)建(jian)設風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光伏電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)同時(shi)，配(pei)套建(jian)設相應的(de)(de)(de)(de)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)以滿足電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)(tong)靈活性要(yao)求，保障(zhang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供應安全。例如，“十三五”期間(jian)，中(zhong)(zhong)國風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量增加了3億多千(qian)瓦。與(yu)此(ci)同時(shi)，火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量也增加了2億多千(qian)瓦。長遠看，可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)與(yu)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)“比翼(yi)齊飛”式(shi)擴(kuo)張的(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉(zhuan)型之路無疑會不斷增加“冗余”，大(da)(da)幅提高系統(tong)(tong)成(cheng)(cheng)本并最(zui)終(zhong)體現為用能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)成(cheng)(cheng)本。因此(ci)，滿足碳中(zhong)(zhong)和要(yao)求的(de)(de)(de)(de)非化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)開(kai)(kai)發利用需要(yao)突破(po)傳統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)(tong)形態，突破(po)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)式(shi)、中(zhong)(zhong)心化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)開(kai)(kai)發利用模(mo)式(shi)，更多地(di)采(cai)取分布式(shi)、去(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)心化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)開(kai)(kai)發利用模(mo)式(shi)。正(zheng)如里(li)夫(fu)金在《第三次工(gong)業革(ge)命》一(yi)書(shu)中(zhong)(zhong)所構(gou)想的(de)(de)(de)(de)：每一(yi)棟樓都變(bian)(bian)成(cheng)(cheng)即時(shi)收集(ji)可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)資源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)微型發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)；在每一(yi)棟建(jian)筑采(cai)用氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和其他(ta)存儲(chu)(chu)技術，使建(jian)筑的(de)(de)(de)(de)每一(yi)部分都能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)存儲(chu)(chu)間(jian)歇性能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量；用互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網技術把電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網轉(zhuan)變(bian)(bian)成(cheng)(cheng)一(yi)個能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)夠實(shi)現能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)共享的(de)(de)(de)(de)互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網；逐步將交通車輛轉(zhuan)為電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動和燃料電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池汽車，并與(yu)智能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)互(hu)通（杰里(li)米(mi)?里(li)夫(fu)金，2012）。

可以(yi)預(yu)見的(de)是：開放互聯、多(duo)源協(xie)同、多(duo)能(neng)互補、能(neng)源與信息深度耦合的(de)能(neng)源互聯網將會是未來能(neng)源電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統的(de)主要(yao)形態(tai)特征，這種去中(zhong)心化的(de)能(neng)源電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統主要(yao)包(bao)括以(yi)下幾大關鍵元素：

一(yi)是可(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源資(zi)源的(de)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)開(kai)發(fa)利(li)用。與煤炭、石油等(deng)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源不同，風(feng)能(neng)(neng)、太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)的(de)分(fen)(fen)(fen)散性特征使其(qi)開(kai)發(fa)利(li)用無需再囿于一(yi)處，分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)開(kai)發(fa)、就(jiu)(jiu)地轉化(hua)和就(jiu)(jiu)近消(xiao)納(na)可(ke)(ke)以最(zui)大(da)程度地利(li)用可(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源。中國可(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源資(zi)源豐富、分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)較為(wei)廣泛，分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)新能(neng)(neng)源資(zi)源可(ke)(ke)開(kai)發(fa)潛力(li)巨(ju)大(da)，據評估(gu)可(ke)(ke)開(kai)發(fa)潛力(li)高達54億千瓦左右(you)（李瓊(qiong)慧等(deng)，2020）。隨著技(ji)術進(jin)步和成本下降，未來分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)新能(neng)(neng)源開(kai)發(fa)利(li)用形式(shi)將愈發(fa)多(duo)樣化(hua)。例如(ru)，發(fa)展(zhan)建筑(zhu)光伏一(yi)體化(hua)，將每一(yi)棟(dong)建筑(zhu)變成一(yi)個小(xiao)型發(fa)電廠；在農村推進(jin)風(feng)能(neng)(neng)、太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)、生物質(zhi)能(neng)(neng)等(deng)資(zi)源的(de)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)開(kai)發(fa)利(li)用，因地制宜(yi)建設(she)“農光互補”等(deng)復合光伏發(fa)電項目。

二是微(wei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)和(he)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)。高滲透率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)分布(bu)式可再生電(dian)(dian)源直(zhi)接接入配電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)會給電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)安全(quan)穩定(ding)運(yun)行帶來巨大挑戰(zhan)，而以(yi)(yi)分布(bu)式電(dian)(dian)源、配電(dian)(dian)設施、控制(zhi)設備(bei)、負(fu)荷以(yi)(yi)及儲能(neng)(neng)裝置等構成(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)微(wei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)既可以(yi)(yi)離網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)獨立運(yun)行，實現電(dian)(dian)力供需自(zi)平衡，也可以(yi)(yi)接入大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)，在(zai)電(dian)(dian)力短缺時(shi)從大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)購電(dian)(dian)，在(zai)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)過(guo)剩時(shi)為大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)提(ti)供調(diao)峰(feng)服務，這種(zhong)分布(bu)式能(neng)(neng)源組織(zhi)方(fang)式可以(yi)(yi)有(you)效降(jiang)低大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)(de)負(fu)擔，提(ti)高電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)安全(quan)可靠性。未來隨(sui)著(zhu)大數據、云計算、物聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)、移動(dong)互聯(lian)等先進信息(xi)技(ji)術(shu)和(he)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)術(shu)在(zai)電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)應用，電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)各個(ge)環節將全(quan)面智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)化(hua)、數字化(hua)、互動(dong)化(hua)。一個(ge)個(ge)微(wei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)通過(guo)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)相(xiang)互聯(lian)接，電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)中所有(you)節點之間的(de)(de)(de)信息(xi)和(he)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)都將可以(yi)(yi)實現雙向流動(dong)。

三是儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)。鑒于可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)間歇(xie)性的(de)(de)(de)(de)出力特性，儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)將(jiang)成為能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)力系統不可(ke)(ke)(ke)或缺的(de)(de)(de)(de)元素。儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)使(shi)用可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)突破電(dian)力發、輸、配、用同(tong)時連(lian)續(xu)進(jin)行的(de)(de)(de)(de)傳統模式(shi)，實現電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)“跨時間轉移”。因(yin)(yin)此，通(tong)過發展(zhan)“可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)+儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)模式(shi)可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)有效減少可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)出力波動及不確定性，有望成為未來主流的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展(zhan)方向。按照技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)原理(li)(li)，儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)主要有物理(li)(li)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)、化學(xue)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)和電(dian)磁儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)三類(lei)，其(qi)中物理(li)(li)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)典型代表抽水蓄(xu)(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)是當今最(zui)為成熟(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)，而化學(xue)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)如鋰離(li)子電(dian)池等(deng)目前技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)進(jin)步(bu)最(zui)快、最(zui)受關注。考慮(lv)到技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)行性、建設的(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)濟性、安全(quan)性等(deng)因(yin)(yin)素，能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉型前期(qi)抽水蓄(xu)(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)仍將(jiang)是最(zui)主要的(de)(de)(de)(de)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)形(xing)式(shi)，轉型后期(qi)隨著化學(xue)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)成熟(shu)以(yi)及成本的(de)(de)(de)(de)下降，電(dian)化學(xue)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)容量預(yu)計將(jiang)顯(xian)著增加。

四(si)是氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量密(mi)度大、轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)效(xiao)率高(gao)(gao)，具有(you)來(lai)源(yuan)(yuan)廣泛、用途(tu)多樣、既可(ke)(ke)運(yun)輸也可(ke)(ke)儲(chu)存的(de)(de)特性，是功能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)靈活的(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)載體和(he)燃(ran)料。當前氫(qing)(qing)氣(qi)主(zhu)要通(tong)(tong)過(guo)化(hua)石(shi)燃(ran)料制(zhi)取，制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)過(guo)程(cheng)會產生(sheng)(sheng)溫室(shi)氣(qi)體排放(fang)(fang)，有(you)悖(bei)于碳(tan)(tan)中和(he)要求。隨(sui)著風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)電(dian)價進一步下降(jiang)，電(dian)解(jie)水(shui)制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)成本降(jiang)低，可(ke)(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)解(jie)水(shui)制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)有(you)望成為(wei)氫(qing)(qing)氣(qi)制(zhi)取的(de)(de)主(zhu)要方(fang)(fang)式(shi)。通(tong)(tong)過(guo)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)解(jie)水(shui)制(zhi)取的(de)(de)氫(qing)(qing)氣(qi)可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)在(zai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)型中發(fa)揮多重作用：一方(fang)(fang)面風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、水(shui)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)的(de)(de)棄(qi)電(dian)可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)電(dian)解(jie)水(shui)制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)，以(yi)(yi)氫(qing)(qing)氣(qi)的(de)(de)形(xing)式(shi)進行儲(chu)存和(he)運(yun)輸，在(zai)電(dian)力不足時再(zai)以(yi)(yi)氫(qing)(qing)供(gong)電(dian)（曹軍文等(deng)，2021），通(tong)(tong)過(guo)電(dian)—氫(qing)(qing)之間(jian)的(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)效(xiao)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)，實(shi)現(xian)(xian)電(dian)氫(qing)(qing)協同，提高(gao)(gao)電(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)靈活性；另一方(fang)(fang)面，零(ling)碳(tan)(tan)的(de)(de)氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)多種能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量形(xing)式(shi)的(de)(de)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)，氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)應(ying)用有(you)助于終端(duan)用能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)部門實(shi)現(xian)(xian)深度脫(tuo)碳(tan)(tan)，例如在(zai)難(nan)以(yi)(yi)減(jian)碳(tan)(tan)的(de)(de)煉(lian)鋼領域，以(yi)(yi)氫(qing)(qing)氣(qi)代替焦炭作為(wei)還原劑(ji)可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)“零(ling)碳(tan)(tan)煉(lian)鋼”，在(zai)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)(fang)較(jiao)高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)交通(tong)(tong)運(yun)輸領域，應(ying)用氫(qing)(qing)燃(ran)料電(dian)池(chi)可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)“零(ling)污染”。

五是(shi)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)交(jiao)通(tong)。智能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技術(shu)以及新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)(de)使用(yong)是(shi)交(jiao)通(tong)行(xing)業低碳轉型的(de)(de)必然方向，未(wei)來傳統(tong)燃油車將逐步被(bei)清潔、智能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)化(hua)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車所替代(dai)。技術(shu)成熟時(shi)(shi)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)汽車可以作為(wei)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)設備(bei)，通(tong)過合理(li)機制的(de)(de)引導參與(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)調節，在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網負荷較低時(shi)(shi)進行(xing)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網負荷較高、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供應不足時(shi)(shi)為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網回輸(shu)(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。考慮到未(wei)來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車的(de)(de)廣泛(fan)使用(yong)，這種(zhong)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)資源(yuan)將具有巨大潛力，新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)交(jiao)通(tong)將成為(wei)去中心化(hua)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)不可缺少(shao)的(de)(de)部分。此外，隨著(zhu)以新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)為(wei)動(dong)(dong)力的(de)(de)運(yun)輸(shu)(shu)工具在(zai)交(jiao)通(tong)全(quan)域的(de)(de)廣泛(fan)應用(yong)，綠色(se)清潔的(de)(de)運(yun)輸(shu)(shu)體(ti)系(xi)逐步形成，這將極大助力碳中和的(de)(de)實現。

四、結語

滿足碳中(zhong)和(he)目標的能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型要(yao)求大幅度提(ti)(ti)高(gao)非(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)重(zhong)。隨著非(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)占一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)比(bi)重(zhong)逐(zhu)步提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)，一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)通(tong)過電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)的比(bi)重(zhong)和(he)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)占終端能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)的比(bi)重(zhong)將趨(qu)于提(ti)(ti)高(gao)，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)(tong)(tong)的電(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)水(shui)平(ping)將不(bu)斷(duan)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)。對于電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)(tong)(tong)而言，隨著非(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)重(zhong)和(he)生(sheng)產側電(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)水(shui)平(ping)的持續(xu)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)，非(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)比(bi)重(zhong)也將不(bu)斷(duan)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)，非(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結構中(zhong)將逐(zhu)步占據(ju)主導地位，電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)(tong)(tong)將呈(cheng)現深度低碳化(hua)特(te)征。為支撐非(fei)(fei)(fei)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)規模(mo)化(hua)發(fa)展，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)發(fa)利用模(mo)式需要(yao)由傳(chuan)統(tong)(tong)(tong)的集中(zhong)式轉(zhuan)(zhuan)向去(qu)中(zhong)心化(hua)模(mo)式，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)(tong)(tong)形態將迎(ying)來(lai)深刻變(bian)革。碳中(zhong)和(he)愿景下能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型將呈(cheng)現三大趨(qu)勢：能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)、電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)(tong)(tong)低碳化(hua)和(he)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)(tong)(tong)去(qu)中(zhong)心化(hua)。

①中(zhong)(zhong)國煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)和(he)天然氣用于發電(dian)的比(bi)重(zhong)根據《中(zhong)(zhong)國能源統計(ji)年鑒2020》計(ji)算，美國煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)用于發電(dian)的比(bi)重(zhong)和(he)天然氣用于發電(dian)比(bi)重(zhong)的世界平均水平根據IEA統計(ji)數(shu)據計(ji)算。

②相對低碳的天然氣在碳中和實現過程中作為一種過渡能源，其消費量可(ke)能先(xian)增后(hou)減。

③在中(zhong)國石油用于(yu)發(fa)電的比重(zhong)很小，因此(ci)忽略不計(ji)。

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