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●2023年年底(di)，全(quan)國(guo)可再生(sheng)能(neng)源發電(dian)裝(zhuang)機規模達14.5億千瓦，占全(quan)國(guo)發電(dian)總裝(zhuang)機的比(bi)例超(chao)過50%，歷史性(xing)超(chao)過火電(dian)裝(zhuang)機

●2023年新(xin)增(zeng)新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)發電裝機2.9億千瓦，超過全國(guo)電源(yuan)(yuan)裝機新(xin)增(zeng)規模的80%

●我國風(feng)電(dian)、太陽能發電(dian)裝機規模已多年(nian)位居世界第(di)一，利用率(lv)水平連(lian)續(xu)五年(nian)保持在(zai)95%以上(shang)

根據(ju)2024年全國能(neng)源(yuan)工作(zuo)會(hui)議公(gong)布的數據(ju)，2023年年底(di)，我(wo)國可(ke)再生能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機規模達(da)到14.5億千瓦(wa)，占全國發電(dian)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機的比例超(chao)過50%，歷史性超(chao)過火電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機。這(zhe)在推動能(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)力轉型(xing)(xing)(xing)、構建新(xin)型(xing)(xing)(xing)電(dian)力系統(tong)、建設新(xin)型(xing)(xing)(xing)能(neng)源(yuan)體(ti)系、實現“雙碳”目標的過程中，寫下了濃墨重(zhong)彩(cai)的一筆。

近(jin)年(nian)(nian)來，我(wo)國(guo)能源(yuan)(yuan)清(qing)潔低碳轉型加速：從(cong)可再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電裝機(ji)規模來看(kan)，從(cong)1億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)增長到(dao)5億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)用(yong)了11年(nian)(nian)時(shi)(shi)間(jian)，從(cong)5億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)到(dao)10億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)用(yong)了6年(nian)(nian)時(shi)(shi)間(jian)，而從(cong)10億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)到(dao)14.5億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)僅用(yong)了2年(nian)(nian)時(shi)(shi)間(jian)；從(cong)我(wo)國(guo)可再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電裝機(ji)占(zhan)比來看(kan)，從(cong)30%提(ti)升到(dao)40%用(yong)了6年(nian)(nian)時(shi)(shi)間(jian)，從(cong)40%提(ti)升到(dao)50%僅用(yong)了3年(nian)(nian)時(shi)(shi)間(jian)；我(wo)國(guo)風電、太陽能發(fa)電裝機(ji)均(jun)已多(duo)年(nian)(nian)位居世界第一(yi)，利(li)用(yong)率水平(ping)連續五年(nian)(nian)保持在(zai)95%以(yi)上。我(wo)國(guo)成為全(quan)球可再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)的重要推動者(zhe)、持續引領者(zhe)和高(gao)質量貢獻者(zhe)。

我國可再生能源發電裝機占比過半，從以下幾方面反映了我國電力系統發展的特點和趨勢：

我(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結構清潔低碳(tan)(tan)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)取得了階(jie)段(duan)性成效。近日國(guo)(guo)家能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)局公(gong)布(bu)的(de)(de)(de)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)力工業統計數據(ju)顯示(shi)，2023年(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)新(xin)增新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)2.9億(yi)千瓦(wa)，超過(guo)2023年(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)初全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)工作會議(yi)預計規模（1.6億(yi)千瓦(wa)）的(de)(de)(de)1.8倍，超過(guo)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)新(xin)增規模的(de)(de)(de)80%，并(bing)且(qie)自2017年(nian)(nian)以(yi)來持續保持新(xin)增電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)主體地位，有(you)力地推動了我(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結構加(jia)(jia)快向(xiang)清潔低碳(tan)(tan)方向(xiang)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)。同時，相對于(yu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，在(zai)稟賦(fu)特性上(shang)分布(bu)更為(wei)全(quan)(quan)面的(de)(de)(de)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，也推動著全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)各省份電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結構加(jia)(jia)速轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)。以(yi)2022年(nian)(nian)為(wei)例，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)可再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)占比(bi)達(da)到45.7%，占比(bi)超過(guo)50%的(de)(de)(de)省份已經達(da)到11個(ge)；新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在(zai)23個(ge)省份已成為(wei)第(di)一大(da)、第(di)二大(da)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，在(zai)青海、甘(gan)肅、河北等省份，新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)占比(bi)超過(guo)50%。

風光等可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)高(gao)質量發(fa)展(zhan)基礎進一步夯(hang)實(shi)。國(guo)家《清潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消納行動計劃(hua)（2018～2020年）》實(shi)施(shi)以來，政府主(zhu)管部門、發(fa)電(dian)(dian)企(qi)(qi)業、電(dian)(dian)網(wang)企(qi)(qi)業、用能(neng)(neng)企(qi)(qi)業緊密配(pei)(pei)合(he)(he)、聯合(he)(he)推(tui)動，在(zai)技術和政策(ce)領域多措并舉、共同(tong)施(shi)策(ce)，取得了全國(guo)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)利(li)用率水平(ping)連續(xu)五年保持在(zai)95%以上(shang)的(de)(de)優異成績。這(zhe)對實(shi)現新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)應發(fa)盡發(fa)、推(tui)動量率協同(tong)起(qi)到了關鍵支撐作用，也為新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)進入躍升式(shi)發(fa)展(zhan)階段(duan)提(ti)供了豐富(fu)有(you)效可(ke)借(jie)鑒的(de)(de)經驗(yan)。這(zhe)些經驗(yan)主(zhu)要包(bao)括：持續(xu)加快電(dian)(dian)網(wang)建設，持續(xu)提(ti)升能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)關鍵樞紐平(ping)臺優化(hua)(hua)配(pei)(pei)置能(neng)(neng)力(li)；持續(xu)推(tui)動靈活性資源(yuan)(yuan)建設，不(bu)斷提(ti)升電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統綜(zong)合(he)(he)調節能(neng)(neng)力(li)；持續(xu)優化(hua)(hua)系統調度(du)運行，提(ti)升源(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷儲協同(tong)互動水平(ping)；加快電(dian)(dian)力(li)市場(chang)建設，推(tui)動新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)在(zai)更大范(fan)圍內(nei)配(pei)(pei)置。

我國(guo)新(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)建(jian)設(she)加速推(tui)(tui)進。大規模高比(bi)例可再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)并網(wang)(wang)，特別是(shi)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)、光伏發電(dian)(dian)(dian)等(deng)(deng)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)并網(wang)(wang)，對電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)規劃建(jian)設(she)、運行管(guan)理和轉(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)升(sheng)級(ji)(ji)產生了廣泛(fan)而(er)深(shen)刻的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)。我國(guo)構建(jian)清潔(jie)低碳(tan)、安全充裕(yu)、經(jing)濟高效(xiao)、供需協同、靈活智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)，需要加大力(li)度應(ying)(ying)對電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)子化程度不斷加深(shen)帶(dai)來的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)穩(wen)定(ding)問(wen)題(ti)、同步(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機比(bi)重(zhong)持續減小(xiao)帶(dai)來的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)慣性(xing)下降挑戰(zhan)以及伴(ban)隨消納(na)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)形成(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)成(cheng)本(ben)疏導(dao)問(wen)題(ti)等(deng)(deng)，全力(li)攻關電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)穩(wen)定(ding)機理、故障(zhang)防御、調度控制(zhi)等(deng)(deng)核心技(ji)術，創新(xin)(xin)性(xing)解決“雙(shuang)高”特征下的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)供需時(shi)空不均衡難題(ti)，順(shun)應(ying)(ying)數字化智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)化時(shi)代發展趨(qu)勢(shi)，打造數智(zhi)(zhi)化堅強(qiang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)，推(tui)(tui)動傳(chuan)統(tong)(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)轉(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)升(sheng)級(ji)(ji)為新(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)，在發展中充分解決清潔(jie)低碳(tan)轉(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)過程中遇到的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)問(wen)題(ti)。

氣(qi)(qi)(qi)候天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)敏感(gan)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)發(fa)展壓力(li)(li)增大。電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)中(zhong)水電(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)、光伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)等氣(qi)(qi)(qi)候天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)敏感(gan)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)比(bi)重的增大，疊加空調(diao)負荷占(zhan)比(bi)持續(xu)提升，使電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)平衡面臨著源(yuan)荷兩(liang)側雙重不確定(ding)性(xing)加劇的挑戰。其中(zhong)，水電(dian)(dian)出力(li)(li)易受(shou)豐枯季影響，而我國不具備調(diao)節能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)的徑流(liu)式水電(dian)(dian)站裝機(ji)占(zhan)比(bi)偏(pian)高。以(yi)水電(dian)(dian)大省四川為例，具備年及以(yi)上(shang)調(diao)節性(xing)能(neng)(neng)的電(dian)(dian)站裝機(ji)占(zhan)比(bi)不到15%。而新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)天(tian)然具有強(qiang)隨機(ji)波動(dong)性(xing)、弱系(xi)統(tong)(tong)支撐性(xing)，在“極(ji)熱無風”“晚峰無光”等氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象條件下，其出力(li)(li)波動(dong)幅度大，系(xi)統(tong)(tong)平衡難度大。據統(tong)(tong)計(ji)，國家電(dian)(dian)網經營區(qu)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)日最大功率(lv)波動(dong)已突破2億千(qian)瓦，這對電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)頂峰調(diao)峰資源(yuan)優化(hua)配置、系(xi)統(tong)(tong)充(chong)裕(yu)性(xing)水平保障(zhang)提出更高要求(qiu)，根(gen)本(ben)上(shang)要求(qiu)統(tong)(tong)籌好新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)與(yu)常規能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)展，推動(dong)煤電(dian)(dian)與(yu)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)、新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)與(yu)調(diao)節電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)實現優化(hua)組合，持續(xu)提升電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)候彈性(xing)、安全(quan)韌性(xing)、調(diao)節柔(rou)性(xing)，確保傳統(tong)(tong)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)退出建立在新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)安全(quan)可靠替代的基礎上(shang)。

未(wei)(wei)來(lai)可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)發利用(yong)的(de)模式(shi)更(geng)加立體多元。從水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)來(lai)看(kan)，常規(gui)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)要加速從電(dian)(dian)(dian)量供應為(wei)主向(xiang)兼具頂峰(feng)調峰(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)方(fang)(fang)向(xiang)轉型，以水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)綜合(he)開(kai)發、存量水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站擴機(ji)、流域梯(ti)級水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)建設等(deng)(deng)為(wei)未(wei)(wei)來(lai)發展趨勢。同時(shi)，抽水(shui)(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)因其在(zai)保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)安(an)全、促進新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納(na)、提(ti)升運行性能(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)(deng)方(fang)(fang)面的(de)突出優勢，近年來(lai)成為(wei)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)規(gui)劃建設重點。從新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)來(lai)看(kan)，我國陸上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)、海(hai)上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)、光伏(fu)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)等(deng)(deng)開(kai)發類型都已進入(ru)“平價”時(shi)代(dai)，太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)光熱發電(dian)(dian)(dian)成本也在(zai)持續下降，海(hai)上(shang)光伏(fu)被多地納(na)入(ru)發展規(gui)劃，分布式(shi)光伏(fu)發展更(geng)是全面鋪開(kai)。未(wei)(wei)來(lai)，“集(ji)分陸海(hai)”并舉(ju)趨勢將持續加強。同時(shi)，可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)制(zhi)氫（氨、甲(jia)烷(wan)、甲(jia)醇、合(he)成燃料(liao)等(deng)(deng)）、可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)直接(jie)供熱等(deng)(deng)利用(yong)方(fang)(fang)式(shi)持續開(kai)拓，為(wei)實現可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)多元化消(xiao)納(na)提(ti)供了有(you)力(li)(li)支撐。

展望未來，以風(feng)光(guang)為(wei)代(dai)表的(de)可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)將(jiang)逐步(bu)從裝機(ji)(ji)主體(ti)向電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)主體(ti)過(guo)渡(du)，對(dui)傳(chuan)統能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)替(ti)代(dai)逐步(bu)從增(zeng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)替(ti)代(dai)向存量(liang)(liang)(liang)替(ti)代(dai)過(guo)渡(du)，進入躍升(sheng)式發(fa)(fa)展的(de)快軌。按(an)照2024年(nian)全國能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)工作會(hui)議預計，今年(nian)全國新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)規模(mo)將(jiang)達(da)2億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，累計發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)規模(mo)將(jiang)突(tu)破12億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，即(ji)提前6年(nian)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)了《國家發(fa)(fa)展改革委國家能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)局(ju)關于(yu)促進新(xin)(xin)(xin)時(shi)(shi)代(dai)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)高質量(liang)(liang)(liang)發(fa)(fa)展實(shi)(shi)施(shi)方案的(de)通知》提出(chu)的(de)“2030年(nian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)規模(mo)達(da)到12億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)以上”目(mu)標。伴隨著“沙戈荒”大型風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)光(guang)伏(fu)基(ji)地、分布式新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)以及海上新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開發(fa)(fa)，實(shi)(shi)現(xian)風(feng)光(guang)為(wei)代(dai)表的(de)可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)高效(xiao)消納成為(wei)重中之重。這更加需(xu)要(yao)我(wo)們在建設數智化堅強電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的(de)過(guo)程中，推(tui)動(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷儲各環節(jie)協同發(fa)(fa)展，持續提升(sheng)新(xin)(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統綜合調節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)，不(bu)斷夯實(shi)(shi)筑牢“全網(wang)統籌、保量(liang)(liang)(liang)穩率(lv)”量(liang)(liang)(liang)率(lv)協同創新(xin)(xin)(xin)理(li)念，及時(shi)(shi)推(tui)動(dong)合理(li)利用率(lv)考核管控機(ji)(ji)制出(chu)臺(tai)，同時(shi)(shi)也需(xu)要(yao)進一步(bu)統籌可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)利用和非電(dian)(dian)(dian)利用，科學(xue)有序實(shi)(shi)現(xian)跨能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)品(pin)種調節(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)引入，共同夯實(shi)(shi)可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)高質量(liang)(liang)(liang)發(fa)(fa)展的(de)軟硬件基(ji)礎，走出(chu)一條具(ju)有中國特色的(de)可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)高質量(liang)(liang)(liang)發(fa)(fa)展之路。

（作者系(xi)國網能源研究院有(you)限公司能源戰略與規(gui)劃研究所(suo)專家(jia)）