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通過招標機制確定電價已成為國際可再生能源定價的趨勢，并帶動了風、光等已實現規模化、商業化應用的可再生能源成本和電價的大幅度下降。本文總結了近兩年國內外風電、太陽能發電招標定價機制的實施進展情況，對比分析了電價水平;利用調研數據，從資源條件、投資運維水平、稅收金融政策等方面分析了影響可再生能源發電成本的關鍵因素以及未來可能的降成本空間，并提出降低我國可再生能源發電成本的政策措施建議。

前言

近年(nian)(nian)(nian)來(lai)，全球風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)等(deng)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)技術不斷進步、產業快速發(fa)展、應用規(gui)(gui)模持續擴大(da)，使可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本顯著(zhu)下(xia)降。可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)支(zhi)持政策(ce)也從高保(bao)障性的(de)(de)固(gu)定上(shang)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)，向推進其(qi)參與市場競(jing)爭的(de)(de)拍賣(mai)招標、溢(yi)價(jia)(jia)補(bu)(bu)貼、綠色電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)證書等(deng)多樣化機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)轉變。2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)以來(lai)，招標機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)確定可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)上(shang)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)越來(lai)越多的(de)(de)國(guo)家和(he)地(di)(di)區采用，其(qi)實(shi)(shi)施帶動了(le)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)大(da)幅度下(xia)降，部分國(guo)家的(de)(de)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)招標電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)與常(chang)規(gui)(gui)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)相(xiang)比(bi)已經具備了(le)經濟性和(he)市場競(jing)爭力(li)。我(wo)國(guo)在2015～2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)通過光(guang)伏(fu)領跑基地(di)(di)進行光(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)和(he)開發(fa)企業招標，2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)又實(shi)(shi)施首批13個風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目的(de)(de)平(ping)價(jia)(jia)上(shang)網(即零電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)補(bu)(bu)貼)示范，但與國(guo)際水平(ping)相(xiang)比(bi)，國(guo)內成(cheng)本和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)水平(ping)相(xiang)對偏(pian)高。本文總結對比(bi)了(le)近兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)國(guo)內外可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)招標電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)水平(ping)，從資源(yuan)條(tiao)件、投資運(yun)行費用、稅收(shou)金融(rong)政策(ce)等(deng)方面分析了(le)影響可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)成(cheng)本的(de)(de)主要因素(su)，提出降低成(cheng)本和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)措施建議。

一、國內外可再生能源發電招標進展和電價水平情況

2017年，全球(qiu)40多個國家實施了可再生能源發電(dian)招標機制。分技術看，光(guang)伏(fu)發電(dian)招標應(ying)用的國家最多，其次(ci)是陸上風(feng)電(dian)、海上風(feng)電(dian)、光(guang)熱發電(dian)等。

(一)光伏發電

光伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)招標電(dian)價近年來屢創新低(di)，在(zai)一些太陽能資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)豐(feng)富的(de)國家(jia)如(ru)智利(li)、印度等，光伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)已(yi)成為(wei)所有新建(jian)電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)中電(dian)價最低(di)的(de)電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)。2016年底，阿(a)聯酋阿(a)布扎比117萬千(qian)(qian)瓦的(de)光伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)招標電(dian)價2.42美分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦時，考慮夏季獎勵電(dian)價后(hou)實際電(dian)價為(wei)2.92美分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦時，為(wei)當(dang)年全球最低(di)。

2017年10月，沙特阿(a)拉伯30萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)項目最(zui)低競標(biao)電(dian)價達到1.786美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)。2017年，印度招標(biao)電(dian)價最(zui)低為(wei)3.8美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，普遍在4～5美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)。美(mei)(mei)(mei)洲地區，阿(a)根廷(ting)中標(biao)電(dian)價在5.5美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)左右;智利中標(biao)電(dian)價達到2.91美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi);墨西哥(ge)由于有可再(zai)生能源(yuan)(yuan)綠色電(dian)力證書(shu)政策，2017年11月，中標(biao)電(dian)價低至1.77美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，即使加上可再(zai)生能源(yuan)(yuan)綠色電(dian)力證書(shu)收益(約3美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi))，光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)項目實際收益也(ye)(ye)僅折(zhe)合人(ren)民(min)幣(bi)0.3元/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)左右;美(mei)(mei)(mei)國光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)的(de)購電(dian)協議(PPA)電(dian)價也(ye)(ye)大多(duo)在5美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)左右。歐(ou)洲太陽能資源(yuan)(yuan)條件一般(ban)，但(dan)通過招標(biao)方(fang)式電(dian)價也(ye)(ye)有顯著下降(jiang)。德國光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)平均中標(biao)電(dian)價從2015年4月第一輪(lun)的(de)9.10歐(ou)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，逐步下降(jiang)至2017年10月第九輪(lun)的(de)4.91歐(ou)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，這一水平已經(jing)低于德國電(dian)網平均購電(dian)價格。

我(wo)(wo)國自2015年(nian)(nian)開(kai)始對光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)領(ling)跑(pao)基地實(shi)施招(zhao)標(biao)(biao)(biao)確定項目開(kai)發(fa)企業，自2016年(nian)(nian)對普通光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)電(dian)(dian)站和(he)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)領(ling)跑(pao)基金全面實(shi)施項目招(zhao)標(biao)(biao)(biao)確定開(kai)發(fa)企業和(he)上網電(dian)(dian)價(jia)。當年(nian)(nian)第二批光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)領(ling)跑(pao)基地項目的(de)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)有顯著下(xia)(xia)降，普遍低于(yu)同地區光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)標(biao)(biao)(biao)桿電(dian)(dian)價(jia)15%～35%，大(da)部(bu)分(fen)在0.50～0.75元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(折合7.5～11.5美分(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi))，最低價(jia)達到(dao)0.45元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)。光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)標(biao)(biao)(biao)桿電(dian)(dian)價(jia)近(jin)幾年(nian)(nian)也呈現(xian)逐年(nian)(nian)下(xia)(xia)降趨勢，年(nian)(nian)降幅在0.1元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)左右，2017年(nian)(nian)為0.65～0.85元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(折合10～13美分(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi))。無論是招(zhao)標(biao)(biao)(biao)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)還是標(biao)(biao)(biao)桿電(dian)(dian)價(jia)，我(wo)(wo)國光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)水平(ping)均(jun)高于(yu)大(da)部(bu)分(fen)國家(jia)的(de)招(zhao)標(biao)(biao)(biao)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)。

(二)光熱發電

2017年，國際光(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)招標(biao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價也進入(ru)了(le)快速下行軌道。6月和(he)9月，沙特阿拉伯電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力工程(cheng)公司(si)(ACWAPower)、上(shang)海電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣和(he)美(mei)(mei)國亮(liang)源組(zu)成的(de)(de)聯合(he)體中標(biao)迪拜20萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)和(he)70萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)塔式光(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價分別為9.45美(mei)(mei)分/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)和(he)7.3美(mei)(mei)分/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi);美(mei)(mei)國SolarＲeserve公司(si)8月以(yi)6美(mei)(mei)分/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)的(de)(de)價格中標(biao)南澳15萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)光(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)，10月又以(yi)低(di)于(yu)5美(mei)(mei)分/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價中標(biao)智利光(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)。我國在(zai)2016年啟(qi)動了(le)首批20個光(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)示范(fan)項目(mu)，總裝機(ji)134.5萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，通(tong)過競爭配置(zhi)確定的(de)(de)統一的(de)(de)示范(fan)項目(mu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價為1.15元/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)。

(三)陸上風電

巴西自2009年(nian)實(shi)施競(jing)標(biao)(biao)機制，2014年(nian)陸上風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)就達到(dao)(dao)5.6美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，其后繼續(xu)下降(jiang)。2017年(nian)，智利風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)達到(dao)(dao)4.52美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)且低于(yu)(yu)同期招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)的(de)(de)氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)、煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)、水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)。秘(mi)魯風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)3.7美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，低于(yu)(yu)同期招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)的(de)(de)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(4.6美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi))。此外，美(mei)(mei)(mei)國風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)PPA價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)也(ye)低至(zhi)2美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，大(da)部分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)項目在(zai)3美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)左右(you);加拿大(da)和墨西哥(ge)的(de)(de)最(zui)低電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)6.6美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)和3.62美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)。2017年(nian)10月，印度(du)100萬千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)項目的(de)(de)招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)4.1美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)。我國對(dui)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)實(shi)施標(biao)(biao)桿電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)政(zheng)策(ce)，2017年(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)為(wei)(wei)0.47～0.60元/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(折合7～9美(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi))，雖然在(zai)2017年(nian)6月開始實(shi)施首批13個風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)項目的(de)(de)平(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)上網(即零電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)補貼(tie))示范，但與國際水(shui)(shui)平(ping)相(xiang)比，總體上國內成(cheng)本和電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)偏高(gao)。

(四)海上風電

國(guo)際海(hai)上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)成本和電(dian)(dian)價(jia)下(xia)降迅速(su)。2017年，英(ying)(ying)國(guo)批準的將(jiang)于(yu)2022～2023年并網發電(dian)(dian)的海(hai)上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)為(wei)0.0575英(ying)(ying)鎊(bang)/千(qian)瓦時(shi)，且(qie)2017年英(ying)(ying)國(guo)新并網海(hai)上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)已經低于(yu)核(he)電(dian)(dian)。2016年11月，瑞典能源企(qi)業(ye)Vattenfall Vindkraft A/S中標丹麥海(hai)上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)項目，電(dian)(dian)價(jia)0.372丹麥克(ke)朗/千(qian)瓦時(shi)(折合5.39美分/千(qian)瓦時(shi))，成為(wei)截至當(dang)時(shi)全(quan)球海(hai)上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)最低電(dian)(dian)價(jia)。

2017年4月，德(de)國對4個總裝機為149萬千(qian)瓦(wa)的(de)海(hai)(hai)上風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目進行(xing)招標，丹麥東能(neng)源(yuan)公司(DONGEnergy)和(he)(he)德(de)國EnBW公司以(yi)最(zui)低投(tou)標價(jia)中標，其中東能(neng)源(yuan)的(de)投(tou)標價(jia)為0，即項(xiang)目無電(dian)(dian)價(jia)補(bu)貼，收益僅來自于電(dian)(dian)力市場售電(dian)(dian)。我國目前潮間(jian)帶風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)近海(hai)(hai)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)的(de)標桿電(dian)(dian)價(jia)水(shui)平分別(bie)為0.75元/千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)和(he)(he)0.85元/千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(折合11.5～13美分/千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi))。

二、國內外可再生能源發電成本和電價差異的主要因素分析

比(bi)(bi)較上述電價水(shui)(shui)平，可以看出，我國(guo)可再生能源電價與國(guo)際相比(bi)(bi)整體(ti)上處于偏高水(shui)(shui)平。表1列出了根據(ju)調研數據(ju)測算的(de)國(guo)內(nei)外部分光伏發(fa)電和(he)海上風(feng)電項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)的(de)平準化成(cheng)本(ben)及構成(cheng)。通(tong)過對(dui)比(bi)(bi)分析(xi)，影響可再生能源發(fa)電項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)成(cheng)本(ben)和(he)造成(cheng)國(guo)內(nei)外電價差異的(de)因素主要在以下幾個(ge)方面。

(一)資源條件

天然資源條件(jian)是(shi)(shi)影響風(feng)(feng)光(guang)等可再生(sheng)能(neng)源發電項(xiang)目成本(ben)(ben)和電價的(de)(de)最基本(ben)(ben)因素(su)，也(ye)是(shi)(shi)無法改(gai)變的(de)(de)基本(ben)(ben)條件(jian)。根據(ju)表(biao)1，阿根廷光(guang)伏發電項(xiang)目年(nian)(nian)太陽能(neng)總輻射量(liang)約2350千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時/平方米，是(shi)(shi)我國I類太陽能(neng)資源區的(de)(de)1.25倍(bei)，資源條件(jian)帶來的(de)(de)成本(ben)(ben)差距(ju)達(da)20%～30%。德國近(jin)海風(feng)(feng)電項(xiang)目的(de)(de)單(dan)位千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)投資、年(nian)(nian)單(dan)位千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)運維費分別是(shi)(shi)我國東部沿海地區近(jin)海風(feng)(feng)電項(xiang)目的(de)(de)2.3倍(bei)、2.6倍(bei)，但前者風(feng)(feng)電年(nian)(nian)等效(xiao)利用小時數是(shi)(shi)后者的(de)(de)1.9倍(bei)，最終(zhong)使兩個并網時間相差三年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)項(xiang)目的(de)(de)度電成本(ben)(ben)相差不大。

(二)初始投資

初(chu)(chu)始(shi)投(tou)資主要取決于(yu)設(she)備和原材(cai)料價格、土地成(cheng)本以(yi)(yi)及人工(gong)費用等。2017年(nian)(nian)下(xia)(xia)半(ban)年(nian)(nian)國內(nei)光伏(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)和風(feng)電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)初(chu)(chu)始(shi)投(tou)資水平(ping)在(zai)6500元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)和7200元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)左右，高(gao)于(yu)國外招標項目(mu)約10%。以(yi)(yi)阿(a)(a)聯(lian)酋(qiu)光伏(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)項目(mu)為例，其(qi)招標電(dian)(dian)價創(chuang)下(xia)(xia)了低于(yu)3美(mei)分/千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)2016年(nian)(nian)世界紀錄，其(qi)中一(yi)個(ge)關鍵因(yin)素(su)就是單位(wei)總投(tou)資折(zhe)合(he)人民幣(bi)低于(yu)5000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。阿(a)(a)聯(lian)酋(qiu)項目(mu)預(yu)期并網發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)時(shi)(shi)間為2019年(nian)(nian)上半(ban)年(nian)(nian)，而(er)2017年(nian)(nian)歐洲光伏(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)單位(wei)投(tou)資水平(ping)已(yi)經折(zhe)合(he)人民幣(bi)5000～5500元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，在(zai)未(wei)來一(yi)年(nian)(nian)多的(de)(de)時(shi)(shi)間內(nei)投(tou)資水平(ping)還有可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能下(xia)(xia)降，再加上阿(a)(a)聯(lian)酋(qiu)項目(mu)規模(mo)大(單體(ti)項目(mu)裝機117萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa))，因(yin)此(ci)低于(yu)5000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)的(de)(de)初(chu)(chu)始(shi)投(tou)資水平(ping)是可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)行(xing)的(de)(de)。降低初(chu)(chu)始(shi)投(tou)資可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)有效降低發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本和電(dian)(dian)價，僅(jin)按照國內(nei)現(xian)有的(de)(de)政策條件(jian)，若(ruo)光伏(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)單位(wei)初(chu)(chu)始(shi)投(tou)資從目(mu)前的(de)(de)6500元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)降低到(dao)5000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，我國I類地區的(de)(de)光伏(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)價可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)由目(mu)前的(de)(de)0.55元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)降至0.43元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)。

(三)政策

政策(ce)對可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)項目(mu)成本和價格的影響最(zui)大，具體(ti)包括(kuo)購電(dian)協議(yi)、貸款、稅收、土(tu)地、并(bing)網(wang)等政策(ce)。

一(yi)是購(gou)電(dian)(dian)協(xie)(xie)議期限(xian)。通常購(gou)電(dian)(dian)協(xie)(xie)議期限(xian)越(yue)長，平(ping)準化成本(ben)越(yue)低，目前國(guo)外項目的購(gou)電(dian)(dian)協(xie)(xie)議期限(xian)為15年至(zhi)25年不(bu)等，我(wo)國(guo)可再生(sheng)能(neng)源標桿電(dian)(dian)價的執行(xing)期限(xian)一(yi)般為20年，購(gou)電(dian)(dian)協(xie)(xie)議或電(dian)(dian)價政策執行(xing)期限(xian)帶來的國(guo)內(nei)外成本(ben)差距相對較小。

二是貸款(kuan)(kuan)利(li)率(lv)(lv)。貸款(kuan)(kuan)利(li)率(lv)(lv)對(dui)項(xiang)目成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)影響較(jiao)大(da)，墨西哥、阿聯(lian)酋、阿根廷以(yi)(yi)及歐洲一(yi)些國(guo)家的可(ke)(ke)再生能源項(xiang)目年貸款(kuan)(kuan)利(li)率(lv)(lv)普遍(bian)在2.5%以(yi)(yi)內，相應的光伏(fu)發電財(cai)(cai)務成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)折合(he)人民幣0.03～0.05元/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時。而我國(guo)目前15年長(chang)期貸款(kuan)(kuan)年利(li)率(lv)(lv)為4.9%，由(you)此帶來的財(cai)(cai)務成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)達(da)10分(fen)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時以(yi)(yi)上。若(ruo)我國(guo)15年長(chang)期貸款(kuan)(kuan)的年利(li)率(lv)(lv)在4.9%的基礎上下調1.5個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)，則(ze)可(ke)(ke)再生能源企業的財(cai)(cai)務成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)可(ke)(ke)下降1/4左(zuo)右;若(ruo)進一(yi)步下降至國(guo)際(ji)上2.5%左(zuo)右的水平，則(ze)相應的財(cai)(cai)務成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)控制在0.05元/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時左(zuo)右。

三(san)(san)是稅(shui)(shui)收政(zheng)策。以光(guang)伏發(fa)電為例(li)，國際上招標(biao)項目(mu)(mu)的(de)稅(shui)(shui)收水平折(zhe)合人民幣0.02～0.05元/千(qian)瓦(wa)時，阿布扎(zha)比招標(biao)項目(mu)(mu)更(geng)是完全免稅(shui)(shui)，而目(mu)(mu)前(qian)我國企業(ye)(ye)需繳納17%的(de)增值稅(shui)(shui)、10%的(de)增值稅(shui)(shui)附加以及25%的(de)企業(ye)(ye)所(suo)得(de)稅(shui)(shui)(可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源發(fa)電可享受“三(san)(san)免三(san)(san)減半”所(suo)得(de)稅(shui)(shui)優惠)，發(fa)電成本(ben)中各項稅(shui)(shui)負合計(ji)0.08～0.09元/千(qian)瓦(wa)時。目(mu)(mu)前(qian)我國對光(guang)伏發(fa)電實施增值稅(shui)(shui)50%即征(zheng)即退政(zheng)策，但這一優惠政(zheng)策將(jiang)于2018年底到期，即使考慮政(zheng)策可延續，各類稅(shui)(shui)負也至(zhi)少為0.06元/千(qian)瓦(wa)時，仍(reng)相對偏高。

四(si)是(shi)土(tu)地(di)(di)費用(yong)。目前國際上(shang)除阿布扎比(bi)招標項目免收土(tu)地(di)(di)使(shi)(shi)(shi)用(yong)費外，很多國家的土(tu)地(di)(di)費用(yong)折合成(cheng)本(ben)大(da)多在人民(min)幣(bi)0.01元(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)左右(you)，而我(wo)國的年(nian)(nian)土(tu)地(di)(di)使(shi)(shi)(shi)用(yong)費(按400元(yuan)/畝年(nian)(nian)考慮(lv))加上(shang)初始征地(di)(di)和植(zhi)被補償費用(yong)后(hou)可(ke)達0.02～0.03元(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，個(ge)別(bie)地(di)(di)區高至(zhi)0.05元(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)。土(tu)地(di)(di)使(shi)(shi)(shi)用(yong)費用(yong)對可(ke)再(zai)生能源發電(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)影響(xiang)較大(da)。若光(guang)伏發電(dian)年(nian)(nian)土(tu)地(di)(di)使(shi)(shi)(shi)用(yong)費由400元(yuan)/畝年(nian)(nian)降(jiang)至(zhi)200元(yuan)/畝年(nian)(nian)，我(wo)國I類地(di)(di)區光(guang)伏發電(dian)度(du)電(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)可(ke)下(xia)降(jiang)至(zhi)少0.01元(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)。

五是并(bing)網政(zheng)策。國(guo)(guo)際上(shang)可再(zai)(zai)(zai)生能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電項目支付(fu)的(de)(de)并(bing)網費(fei)用在(zai)總投資(zi)中的(de)(de)占(zhan)比約為1%～3%，而我(wo)國(guo)(guo)需要支付(fu)的(de)(de)并(bing)網費(fei)用占(zhan)總投資(zi)的(de)(de)5%左右。若嚴格執行《可再(zai)(zai)(zai)生能源(yuan)法(fa)》和相(xiang)關法(fa)規(gui)，清楚(chu)地(di)劃分可再(zai)(zai)(zai)生能源(yuan)開發(fa)(fa)企業和電網企業的(de)(de)投資(zi)責任，則我(wo)國(guo)(guo)可再(zai)(zai)(zai)生能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電的(de)(de)度(du)電成(cheng)本和電價可降低(di)0.01～0.02元/千(qian)瓦時。

整(zheng)體上(shang)看，在影響(xiang)(xiang)可再(zai)生能源(yuan)發(fa)電成本(ben)(ben)(ben)和(he)(he)造成國(guo)內外電價(jia)差異(yi)的(de)(de)各項因素(su)中，初始投(tou)資、運行(xing)費用、購電協議期限等帶來的(de)(de)差別不大，客(ke)觀上(shang)的(de)(de)自(zi)然資源(yuan)條(tiao)件差異(yi)對(dui)發(fa)電成本(ben)(ben)(ben)造成了(le)一定的(de)(de)影響(xiang)(xiang)，而貸款、稅收、土地(di)、并網等方面(mian)的(de)(de)支(zhi)持政策才(cai)是降低成本(ben)(ben)(ben)空間的(de)(de)主要因素(su)。以光(guang)伏發(fa)電為(wei)(wei)例，阿布扎比和(he)(he)我(wo)國(guo)I類地(di)區典型項目(mu)按(an)實際條(tiao)件測(ce)算(suan)的(de)(de)電價(jia)折合(he)人民幣分別為(wei)(wei)0.20元(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)瓦時(shi)、0.55元(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)瓦時(shi)，但若按(an)我(wo)國(guo)I類地(di)區的(de)(de)太陽能資源(yuan)條(tiao)件、2017年國(guo)內光(guang)伏發(fa)電投(tou)資和(he)(he)運維水平(ping)、阿布扎比項目(mu)的(de)(de)政策條(tiao)件進行(xing)測(ce)算(suan)，相應的(de)(de)電價(jia)則僅為(wei)(wei)0.31元(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)瓦時(shi)。

三、降低可再生能源發電成本政策措施建議

為切實降低國內可再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)的成(cheng)本和電(dian)價(jia)，需要重點(dian)從兩個方面(mian)入手:一是持續以技(ji)術進(jin)步和產業升(sheng)級推(tui)進(jin)成(cheng)本下降;二是實施與可再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)相(xiang)適應的政(zheng)策，盡快消(xiao)除附加在可再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)上的不(bu)合理(li)費用，清除不(bu)合理(li)政(zheng)策。具體政(zheng)策措施建議如下。

(一)持續實施競爭機制，推動技術進步與產業升級

對技(ji)術成(cheng)熟(shu)和實現規模化發展(zhan)的可再生能源技(ji)術采(cai)用競(jing)爭招標機(ji)制是國(guo)(guo)際(ji)趨(qu)勢，我國(guo)(guo)采(cai)用競(jing)爭招標機(ji)制有利(li)于(yu)穩(wen)定可再生能源的發展(zhan)節奏、優(you)化布局、達(da)成(cheng)國(guo)(guo)家2020年和2030年非化石能源發展(zhan)目標。通(tong)過招標可以了解成(cheng)本和價格需求，推進技(ji)術進步、產業升級(ji)、降低(di)(di)成(cheng)本，以更(geng)低(di)(di)的成(cheng)本實現清潔能源轉型。

建議根據2017年首(shou)批風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)無(wu)補(bu)(bu)貼試點實(shi)(shi)施效果，“十三五”期(qi)間持(chi)續(xu)實(shi)(shi)施風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)無(wu)補(bu)(bu)貼試點，擴大(da)試點范圍(wei)和規模，適時開展光(guang)伏發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)無(wu)補(bu)(bu)貼試點。推(tui)行以競爭機制降低(di)陸上(shang)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)、光(guang)伏發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)開發(fa)(fa)成(cheng)本，通過電(dian)(dian)價或補(bu)(bu)貼水(shui)平(ping)招標選擇項目業主，消除(chu)地方性的不合理費用，消除(chu)政策實(shi)(shi)施障礙。根據無(wu)補(bu)(bu)貼試點和競爭電(dian)(dian)價情況(kuang)，及時調整電(dian)(dian)價和補(bu)(bu)貼退坡幅度，實(shi)(shi)現(xian)2020年風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)與當地燃煤(mei)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)同平(ping)臺競爭、光(guang)伏發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)價水(shui)平(ping)在2015年基(ji)礎(chu)上(shang)下降50%以上(shang)以及在用電(dian)(dian)側實(shi)(shi)現(xian)平(ping)價上(shang)網的目標。

(二)規范政策實施，消除可再生能源發電非技術成本

風(feng)、光等可(ke)再(zai)生能源作為(wei)清潔和(he)運(yun)營期零(ling)碳的(de)(de)能源，在目前化石(shi)能源開(kai)采和(he)利用、碳排放(fang)和(he)污染物排放(fang)等負外部(bu)性未能完(wan)全(quan)納入成(cheng)(cheng)本的(de)(de)情況(kuang)下，應該得到(dao)差別(bie)化的(de)(de)電價政策支持。但另一方面(mian)(mian)，不能因為(wei)可(ke)再(zai)生能源發電得到(dao)了(le)國(guo)家政策支持，各個方面(mian)(mian)就將其視為(wei)“唐僧肉”，必須規范實施政策，消除附加在可(ke)再(zai)生能源發電成(cheng)(cheng)本上的(de)(de)不合理(li)因素，降低(di)非(fei)技術成(cheng)(cheng)本。

一是降(jiang)低并網成本(ben)，嚴(yan)格(ge)按照(zhao)《可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)法(fa)》和(he)相(xiang)關(guan)規定，劃分開(kai)發(fa)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)和(he)電(dian)網企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)投(tou)資(zi)責任(ren)。二是降(jiang)低用地(di)成本(ben)，嚴(yan)格(ge)執行國(guo)務院《促(cu)進光伏(fu)產業(ye)(ye)健康(kang)發(fa)展的(de)若干意見》等(deng)(deng)國(guo)家有關(guan)政策規定，結(jie)合(he)(he)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)土(tu)地(di)使(shi)用的(de)特殊性(xing)，細化土(tu)地(di)使(shi)用政策，明確土(tu)地(di)使(shi)用類別(bie)以(yi)及(ji)相(xiang)應的(de)征地(di)補償、年使(shi)用費(fei)(fei)用標(biao)準，并規范執行、加(jia)強監(jian)管。三是嚴(yan)格(ge)禁止地(di)方性(xing)不合(he)(he)理附加(jia)費(fei)(fei)用，如不能(neng)(neng)將可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)項(xiang)目(mu)本(ben)體投(tou)資(zi)外的(de)附加(jia)投(tou)資(zi)強加(jia)給開(kai)發(fa)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)，在與礦山(shan)等(deng)(deng)廢棄(qi)土(tu)地(di)治理的(de)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)中，土(tu)地(di)預處理及(ji)費(fei)(fei)用等(deng)(deng)需要在項(xiang)目(mu)開(kai)發(fa)之(zhi)前(qian)解決(jue)，不應由開(kai)發(fa)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)承擔。四是積極采(cai)取措施，逐步(bu)減少棄(qi)風棄(qi)光比例和(he)縮小棄(qi)風棄(qi)光范圍，切實落實可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)全額保障性(xing)收(shou)購制度(du)。對最(zui)低保障性(xing)小時數以(yi)內(nei)的(de)電(dian)量(liang)，電(dian)網企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)必(bi)須全額全價收(shou)購;保障性(xing)小時數以(yi)內(nei)的(de)限電(dian)電(dian)量(liang)，應要求電(dian)網企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)“照(zhao)付不議”支付電(dian)費(fei)(fei)。五(wu)是盡(jin)快解決(jue)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)價補貼拖欠問題(ti)。

(三)創新實施適合可再生能源發展的政策機制

一是結合電(dian)(dian)力(li)體制改革，落(luo)實和(he)做好分(fen)布式(shi)(shi)(shi)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)參(can)與市場(chang)化交易試點工作;二是創新信貸政(zheng)(zheng)策，克服融(rong)(rong)資(zi)障礙，解決民營(ying)開(kai)發(fa)企業和(he)分(fen)布式(shi)(shi)(shi)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)開(kai)發(fa)項目實際貸款利率偏(pian)高問題。降低(di)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)本，通過增信方式(shi)(shi)(shi)降低(di)分(fen)布式(shi)(shi)(shi)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)項目融(rong)(rong)資(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)本，采(cai)取(qu)綠(lv)色金融(rong)(rong)和(he)項目股權(quan)債權(quan)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)等方式(shi)(shi)(shi)降低(di)大型電(dian)(dian)站融(rong)(rong)資(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)本。三是實施(shi)稅收政(zheng)(zheng)策。如(ru)在經濟較為發(fa)達的東中部，探索實施(shi)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)所得稅減免(mian)或(huo)稅收返還，明確光伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)50%即征即退(tui)增值稅政(zheng)(zheng)策為長效政(zheng)(zheng)策。四是盡快(kuai)推出(chu)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)配(pei)額(e)制和(he)綠(lv)色證(zheng)書強制交易，近期(qi)緩解、中期(qi)最終解決可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)補貼(tie)資(zi)金缺(que)口以及限電(dian)(dian)問題，保障可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)價與成(cheng)(cheng)本同(tong)步下降并盡快(kuai)實現補貼(tie)政(zheng)(zheng)策退(tui)出(chu)。