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6月27日，國(guo)家發展改革委(wei)就全(quan)面(mian)(mian)放(fang)開經營性電(dian)力用(yong)(yong)戶發用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計劃(hua)發放(fang)通知（以下簡稱“通知”）。通知就全(quan)面(mian)(mian)放(fang)開經營性電(dian)力用(yong)(yong)戶發用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計劃(hua)、支(zhi)持中小(xiao)用(yong)(yong)戶參與市場化交易(yi)、健全(quan)全(quan)面(mian)(mian)放(fang)開經營性發用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計劃(hua)后的價格(ge)形成機制、切實(shi)做好公益性用(yong)(yong)電(dian)的供應保(bao)障(zhang)及規(gui)劃(hua)內清潔電(dian)源的發電(dian)消(xiao)納保(bao)障(zhang)等工作(zuo)進行了具體部(bu)署。

通知旨在(zai)通過市場化(hua)交(jiao)易降成本，提升(sheng)制造業(ye)(ye)競爭力，推動用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量增長。經營(ying)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)發用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)計劃是繼2018年放開煤炭、鋼(gang)鐵、有(you)色、建材4個行業(ye)(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)發用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)計劃后(hou)，推動除(chu)居民、農業(ye)(ye)、重要公(gong)用(yong)(yong)事(shi)業(ye)(ye)和公(gong)益性服(fu)務等(deng)行業(ye)(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)以(yi)及電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力生產供應所必需的廠用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和線損之外的其他電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)的全電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量與交(jiao)易。

具體看，通知的目的有二：

一是深化電力改革，擴大電力市場化交易。2016年國(guo)家發改委(wei)曾制定2018年放(fang)開全(quan)部工業(ye)用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)電(dian)量(liang)，2020年放(fang)開全(quan)部商業(ye)用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)電(dian)量(liang)的(de)目標。然而(er)，截至2018年年底，全(quan)國(guo)電(dian)力市(shi)場交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)電(dian)量(liang)(含發電(dian)權交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)電(dian)量(liang))合計為20654億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，約(yue)占全(quan)國(guo)工業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)的(de)44%，距離(li)100%放(fang)開的(de)目標差價甚遠。因(yin)此，政府力圖推動電(dian)量(liang)市(shi)場化進程，使更多用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)通過市(shi)場化交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)享受電(dian)力成本下降的(de)紅利。

二是通過建立市場化價格形成機制降成本。中美貿(mao)易摩擦背景(jing)下，降能源成(cheng)本(ben)有利于提(ti)振(zhen)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)競爭(zheng)(zheng)力。通知規定鼓勵(li)電(dian)(dian)力用戶(hu)(hu)和(he)發電(dian)(dian)企業(ye)自主協商簽(qian)(qian)訂合同時(shi)，以(yi)靈活(huo)可(ke)浮動(dong)的(de)(de)形式確定具體價(jia)(jia)(jia)格。此舉意味著售(shou)電(dian)(dian)用戶(hu)(hu)可(ke)以(yi)簽(qian)(qian)訂長期浮動(dong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格合同降低(di)發電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)。同時(shi)，由(you)于通知涉及的(de)(de)放開的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)力用戶(hu)(hu)主要(yao)為電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)較(jiao)高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)一般工商業(ye)用戶(hu)(hu)，放開后(hou)電(dian)(dian)網不再(zai)享受這部(bu)分用戶(hu)(hu)的(de)(de)購(gou)銷差價(jia)(jia)(jia)，僅獲取輸配電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)，因此，減少電(dian)(dian)網的(de)(de)中間(jian)環(huan)節成(cheng)本(ben)將成(cheng)為用戶(hu)(hu)降成(cheng)本(ben)的(de)(de)重要(yao)來源。電(dian)(dian)力成(cheng)本(ben)下降有利于提(ti)升制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)競爭(zheng)(zheng)力，提(ti)振(zhen)下游用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增長，提(ti)高(gao)(gao)供電(dian)(dian)設備利用率。

經營性(xing)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)發用電(dian)計劃(hua)的(de)放(fang)開將(jiang)(jiang)在2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)帶來2000-3000億千瓦(wa)時市(shi)場化交易(yi)增量(liang)。由于直(zhi)購電(dian)交易(yi)供(gong)用電(dian)雙方簽訂合同執行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)，造成執行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)層面的(de)遲滯性(xing)。譬如2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)放(fang)開四大行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)發用電(dian)計劃(hua)的(de)總電(dian)量(liang)合計約(yue)12299億千瓦(wa)時，我們(men)任務上述四大行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)將(jiang)(jiang)在2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加約(yue)4000億度直(zhi)購電(dian)交易(yi)。根(gen)據2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)用電(dian)數據測算(suan)，全部經營性(xing)用戶用電(dian)量(liang)約(yue)38041億千瓦(wa)時，約(yue)占全社會用電(dian)量(liang)的(de)56%。

由于(yu)政(zheng)策(ce)下(xia)發(fa)在6月，增量(liang)用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶均為年(nian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)500萬千瓦(wa)時以下(xia)的用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶，鑒于(yu)參與(yu)電(dian)力交易需(xu)要(yao)專業(ye)人員，因此大部分用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶無法直(zhi)接(jie)開展交易，需(xu)要(yao)通(tong)過售(shou)電(dian)公司購(gou)電(dian)，根據我(wo)們對多家售(shou)電(dian)公司開發(fa)一(yi)般工商業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶的情況調(diao)研判斷，我(wo)們預計今年(nian)僅能(neng)增加(jia)直(zhi)購(gou)電(dian)交易量(liang)2000-3000億(yi)度。據此，我(wo)們認(ren)為2019年(nian)全國市(shi)場(chang)(chang)化交易電(dian)量(liang)約為2.6-2.8萬億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，經營性行業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)化爆發(fa)期或在2020-2021年(nian)。

未(wei)來用(yong)戶間或將(jiang)簽訂浮(fu)(fu)動(dong)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)協(xie)議，但價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)是否真正下(xia)浮(fu)(fu)由本(ben)地(di)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)供需及煤價(jia)(jia)成本(ben)決定(ding)。通知指出“全面放開經營性發(fa)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)計劃(hua)后的(de)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)形(xing)成機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)……價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)浮(fu)(fu)動(dong)方式由雙方事先(xian)約定(ding)。”我們預計通知發(fa)布(bu)后，政府將(jiang)大(da)力推(tui)行今年1月在江西試點“基(ji)準電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)+浮(fu)(fu)動(dong)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)”。電(dian)(dian)(dian)力市(shi)場化(hua)的(de)主要目的(de)是還原(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力的(de)商品屬(shu)性，由電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需平衡發(fa)現(xian)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)。我們預計浮(fu)(fu)動(dong)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)或將(jiang)使得(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)呈現(xian)淡季(ji)低價(jia)(jia)旺季(ji)高價(jia)(jia)的(de)格(ge)(ge)局，更好地(di)反映(ying)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需及發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成本(ben)。

保障清潔能源消納，降低(di)棄(qi)水(shui)、棄(qi)風(feng)(feng)、棄(qi)光(guang)。通(tong)知鼓勵經營(ying)性電(dian)力用戶與核電(dian)、水(shui)電(dian)、風(feng)(feng)電(dian)、太陽能發電(dian)等清潔能源開展(zhan)市(shi)場化交易，這(zhe)一(yi)措施利好具備外送條件的清潔能源消納，我們推(tui)薦華能水(shui)電(dian)，國(guo)投電(dian)力。

放開(kai)經(jing)營性行業發用電(dian)(dian)(dian)將導致電(dian)(dian)(dian)網利潤下降。本通知涉及(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)放開(kai)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)用戶(hu)主要為電(dian)(dian)(dian)價較高的(de)(de)一般(ban)工商業用戶(hu)，放開(kai)后電(dian)(dian)(dian)網不再享受(shou)這部分用戶(hu)的(de)(de)購銷(xiao)差(cha)價，在電(dian)(dian)(dian)網依(yi)然需要保(bao)障(zhang)居民與公(gong)益性用電(dian)(dian)(dian)供應及(ji)(ji)規劃內清潔電(dian)(dian)(dian)源消納情況下，電(dian)(dian)(dian)網利潤將進一步被削弱(ruo)。