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從2014年(nian)6月(yue)13日(ri)習近平總(zong)書(shu)記(ji)提(ti)出“四(si)個(ge)革命、一(yi)個(ge)合(he)作”的(de)(de)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)新戰(zhan)略(lve)至今，已(yi)經過去了整整五(wu)個(ge)年(nian)頭(tou)。五(wu)年(nian)來，在(zai)(zai)這一(yi)戰(zhan)略(lve)指引下，我國能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)行業通過促(cu)進技術進步和深化改(gai)革，無論是在(zai)(zai)供給側還是消費(fei)側，以及國際合(he)作方面，都取得(de)了巨大的(de)(de)成績(ji)，產生了深刻的(de)(de)變化。在(zai)(zai)新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)生產等領域，革命性的(de)(de)轉折點已(yi)經顯(xian)現(xian)，非(fei)化石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)替代化石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)趨勢已(yi)不(bu)可阻擋(dang)，能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉型進入了一(yi)個(ge)全新的(de)(de)階段。今后一(yi)個(ge)時期，圍(wei)繞既定目標，面對(dui)新形勢，還需要(yao)各方協(xie)調(diao)、創新，共同推(tui)動新時代能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)革命的(de)(de)到(dao)來。

在供給側，非化石能源取代化石能源的條件初步具備

要實現(xian)非化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)對化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的大規模替代，最主要的是解決(jue)(jue)風、光(guang)等新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的經濟(ji)性和電力(li)供應的不穩定性問題。基(ji)地式規模化(hua)(hua)的開發、能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)技術的不斷進步、智能(neng)控制技術的廣泛應用，為(wei)我們提供可行(xing)解決(jue)(jue)方案。

“2毛(mao)錢(qian)(qian)”上(shang)網(wang)(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)生產大(da)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)清潔替(ti)代的(de)轉折(zhe)點。隨(sui)著(zhu)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)術的(de)不斷(duan)突破和日益成(cheng)熟，其開發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)成(cheng)本(ben)逐漸降低(di)(di)(di)。當上(shang)網(wang)(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)接(jie)近“2毛(mao)錢(qian)(qian)”時(shi)，新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)建(jian)設(she)及生產成(cheng)本(ben)優勢將更(geng)加(jia)明(ming)顯，非(fei)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)將加(jia)速替(ti)代傳統化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。根據(ju)(ju)國際可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)署（IRENA）數據(ju)(ju)顯示，2010年(nian)至2018年(nian)，可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)大(da)幅下(xia)降，其中(zhong)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)全(quan)球(qiu)平均(jun)(jun)成(cheng)本(ben)下(xia)降75.7%，陸上(shang)風(feng)(feng)力發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)下(xia)降25%。在世界某(mou)些地(di)區(qu)(qu)，陸上(shang)風(feng)(feng)能(neng)(neng)和太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)成(cheng)本(ben)可達(da)到(dao)每千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)0.04美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，巴西某(mou)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)最新(xin)中(zhong)標價(jia)(jia)(jia)格僅(jin)為(wei)(wei)1.75美(mei)分/千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，折(zhe)合(he)人民幣度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)僅(jin)為(wei)(wei)0.12元(yuan)(yuan)，“2毛(mao)錢(qian)(qian)”新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)上(shang) 網(wang)(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)已具備同火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)標桿電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)同臺競爭的(de)潛力。我國風(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)豐富，內蒙古、新(xin)疆等(deng)地(di)風(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)1/60，即可滿足全(quan)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力需求。相比于分布式能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)，大(da)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)集(ji)中(zhong)開發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，一方面(mian)可通(tong)過規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)效(xiao)應降低(di)(di)(di)造價(jia)(jia)(jia)，另一方面(mian)由(you)于大(da)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)開發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏能(neng)(neng)有效(xiao)互(hu)補，提升風(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)整體利(li)用效(xiao)率，實(shi)際生產效(xiao)益有所增加(jia)。2018年(nian)，我國陸上(shang)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)平均(jun)(jun)單(dan)位千(qian)瓦(wa)造價(jia)(jia)(jia)約為(wei)(wei)7100元(yuan)(yuan)，部分地(di)區(qu)(qu)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)單(dan)位千(qian)瓦(wa)造價(jia)(jia)(jia)已低(di)(di)(di)于6000元(yuan)(yuan)；光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏全(quan)年(nian)平均(jun)(jun)單(dan)位千(qian)瓦(wa)造價(jia)(jia)(jia)約5500元(yuan)(yuan)，部分光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站單(dan)位千(qian)瓦(wa)造價(jia)(jia)(jia)已低(di)(di)(di)于4500元(yuan)(yuan)。如在內外(wai)蒙選(xuan)取(qu)年(nian)利(li)用小時(shi)3000小時(shi)以上(shang)的(de)區(qu)(qu)域，建(jian)設(she)1～2億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)的(de)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，其風(feng)(feng)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)是充沛的(de)，上(shang)網(wang)(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)可達(da)0.2元(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)。又如在青藏高(gao)原(yuan)(yuan)、柴達(da)木盆地(di)等(deng)區(qu)(qu)域建(jian)5～10億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏，其光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)利(li)用小時(shi)數可達(da)到(dao)2000小時(shi)，單(dan)位造價(jia)(jia)(jia)也可實(shi)現(xian)4000元(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)瓦(wa)，原(yuan)(yuan)預測(ce)2023年(nian)可達(da)到(dao)的(de)0.2元(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)的(de)上(shang)網(wang)(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)，目(mu)(mu)前就可實(shi)現(xian)。

儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側管(guan)理可(ke)以有效改善新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不穩定性(xing)。近年來，儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技(ji)術的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)快(kuai)速(su)發展(zhan)及成(cheng)本(ben)持續(xu)下(xia)降(jiang)，使(shi)(shi)(shi)其(qi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)領域的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)應用越(yue)(yue)來越(yue)(yue)廣泛。它(ta)不僅能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)使(shi)(shi)(shi)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)更(geng)有效的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)利用，減少棄風棄光，還可(ke)以平抑發電(dian)(dian)(dian)出力，提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)質量，使(shi)(shi)(shi)更(geng)多(duo)(duo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“2毛錢”新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)得(de)到(dao)消納。同時(shi)，當新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)降(jiang)到(dao)“2毛錢”或更(geng)低(di)時(shi)，通(tong)(tong)過(guo)針對性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側管(guan)理，可(ke)以為新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不穩定性(xing)問(wen)題找到(dao)新(xin)(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)解決方案。如(ru)調整(zheng)峰谷(gu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)差(cha)，谷(gu)段(duan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)設定在(zai)(zai)(zai)0.1～0.2元/千瓦時(shi)，峰段(duan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)設定在(zai)(zai)(zai)0.9～1.0元/千瓦時(shi)。通(tong)(tong)過(guo)價(jia)格(ge)信(xin)號鼓勵需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)用戶(hu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)谷(gu)段(duan)多(duo)(duo)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)、峰段(duan)多(duo)(duo)放電(dian)(dian)(dian)，使(shi)(shi)(shi)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)、蓄熱、蓄冷、蓄氫等多(duo)(duo)種(zhong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)形式、多(duo)(duo)種(zhong)設備資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)得(de)到(dao)合理有效的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)利用。通(tong)(tong)過(guo)時(shi)間(jian)(jian)、空間(jian)(jian)兩個維度的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)調節，解決新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)出力與負荷(he)同時(shi)率(lv)差(cha)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)問(wen)題，進而(er)降(jiang)低(di)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)不穩定特性(xing)對能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供需(xu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響，促進新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)大規(gui)模利用。

智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)控制技術為能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉型提(ti)供(gong)了保障。大(da)數據、云計算、物(wu)聯網、移動(dong)互(hu)聯網等(deng)先進信(xin)息技術與能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)行業正在深(shen)度融合。各種智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)控制技術使得能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)配置更加靈活高效(xiao)，多能(neng)(neng)(neng)互(hu)補、智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)電網、車網互(hu)聯等(deng)技術在“源(yuan)(yuan)—網—荷—儲”各領域實(shi)現快速(su)突破，更加智(zhi)(zhi)慧(hui)、柔性更高的新一代電力系(xi)統(tong)正在加速(su)形成。同時(shi)，城市級(ji)、園區級(ji)、系(xi)統(tong)級(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)智(zhi)(zhi)慧(hui)控制系(xi)統(tong)也(ye)得到了廣泛(fan)應用，為能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電力系(xi)統(tong)帶來(lai)了“智(zhi)(zhi)慧(hui)大(da)腦”，使能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電力資源(yuan)(yuan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)在更大(da)范圍內實(shi)現靈活高效(xiao)配置，實(shi)現出力和負荷的動(dong)態匹配，促進了不穩定非化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的消納。

在消費側，大規模電能替代初具經濟性

在(zai)能(neng)源消費側，除了工業用(yong)戶，供暖和(he)交通是(shi)最(zui)主要(yao)的(de)(de)兩個終端用(yong)能(neng)領域。如上(shang)(shang)所述，在(zai)新能(neng)源上(shang)(shang)網電(dian)(dian)價下降的(de)(de)前(qian)提下，通過拉大峰谷電(dian)(dian)價差(cha)，特(te)別是(shi)降低谷電(dian)(dian)價格，如“2毛錢”，可以實現大規模電(dian)(dian)能(neng)替代(dai)，以電(dian)(dian)為(wei)核心的(de)(de)能(neng)源消費新時代(dai)將(jiang)加速(su)到來。

電(dian)供(gong)熱(re)可(ke)(ke)取(qu)代天(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣供(gong)熱(re)。1立方天(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣燃(ran)燒(shao)后的(de)熱(re)值約36兆焦，1度(du)電(dian)的(de)熱(re)值約為3.6兆焦，即10度(du)電(dian)產生的(de)熱(re)值與1立方天(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣熱(re)值相當(dang)。當(dang)采用(yong)天(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣鍋爐(lu)和直(zhi)熱(re)式電(dian)鍋爐(lu)進行供(gong)暖時(shi)，考(kao)慮管網及換熱(re)站(zhan)損失后，兩者系(xi)統供(gong)熱(re)效(xiao)率相當(dang)。以北(bei)京(jing)地區商(shang)業天(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣及銷(xiao)售(shou)電(dian)價(jia)估(gu)算，若(ruo)(ruo)以2毛錢清潔電(dian)力為熱(re)力生產原(yuan)料時(shi)，考(kao)慮輸(shu)配成本、稅(shui)收、線損折(zhe)價(jia)等因素(su)，其終端(duan)銷(xiao)售(shou)電(dian)價(jia)可(ke)(ke)控制在4毛錢以內，使直(zhi)熱(re)式電(dian)鍋爐(lu)供(gong)熱(re)具有同天(tian)(tian)然(ran)鍋爐(lu)氣供(gong)熱(re)相當(dang)的(de)經(jing)濟(ji)性，若(ruo)(ruo)采 用(yong)空氣源熱(re)泵(beng)等更(geng)先進技術，其經(jing)濟(ji)性將更(geng)加明顯。“2毛錢”的(de)用(yong)電(dian)價(jia)格可(ke)(ke)實(shi)現電(dian)供(gong)熱(re)對天(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣供(gong)熱(re)的(de)加速取(qu)代。

電(dian)制氫(qing)(qing)(qing)可(ke)實現燃油替代。若以“2毛(mao)錢”的(de)清潔電(dian)力制氫(qing)(qing)(qing)，平均60度電(dian)可(ke)制1公(gong)斤氫(qing)(qing)(qing)氣，1公(gong)斤氫(qing)(qing)(qing)氣可(ke)使氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能汽(qi)車(che)(che)實現100公(gong)里(li)續航里(li)程，考(kao)慮(lv)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)氣儲運、加氫(qing)(qing)(qing)設(she)備及加氫(qing)(qing)(qing)站運行維護成(cheng)本，1公(gong)斤氫(qing)(qing)(qing)氣的(de)終端使用價格約在40～50元左右，百(bai)公(gong)里(li)用能成(cheng)本約0.4～0.5元。因此，考(kao)慮(lv)技術成(cheng)熟度及各環節成(cheng)本下降趨勢，當制氫(qing)(qing)(qing)度電(dian)成(cheng)本為“2毛(mao)錢”時，氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能汽(qi)車(che)(che)則具有汽(qi)油汽(qi)車(che)(che)同樣(yang)的(de)經濟性，可(ke)大規模實現對(dui)燃油車(che)(che)的(de)替代。

能源轉型新階段的展望

新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)“2毛(mao)(mao)錢”上網電(dian)價(jia)和(he)(he)消費(fei)側(ce)“2毛(mao)(mao)錢”谷電(dian)價(jia)格，是能(neng)源(yuan)轉型進入(ru)新(xin)階段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)標志(zhi)。前者使(shi)(shi)供應(ying)側(ce)清潔(jie)(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)大規(gui)(gui)模替代(dai)化石能(neng)源(yuan)成(cheng)為可能(neng)，后者使(shi)(shi)消費(fei)側(ce)電(dian)能(neng)大規(gui)(gui)模替代(dai)化石能(neng)源(yuan)成(cheng)為變(bian)得可行。能(neng)源(yuan)轉型進入(ru)新(xin)階段(duan)，必將(jiang)(jiang)帶來能(neng)源(yuan)生(sheng)產方(fang)式(shi)、消費(fei)觀念和(he)(he)社會生(sheng)態的(de)(de)(de)變(bian)化。“清潔(jie)(jie)主導、電(dian)為主體”的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)源(yuan)格局是發展的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)向和(he)(he)趨(qu)勢。基地式(shi)規(gui)(gui)模化開發與(yu)儲能(neng)配合將(jiang)(jiang)成(cheng)為主要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)清潔(jie)(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)開發方(fang)式(shi)。利用遠(yuan)方(fang)輸(shu)送來的(de)(de)(de)清潔(jie)(jie)電(dian)力及本地開發的(de)(de)(de)分布式(shi)清潔(jie)(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)，氫(qing)能(neng)小鎮、零(ling)碳小鎮將(jiang)(jiang)大量出現，形成(cheng)無(wu)碳、無(wu)煤、無(wu)油、無(wu)天然氣城鎮能(neng)源(yuan)發展的(de)(de)(de)新(xin)模式(shi)、新(xin)思路。

當前，推動(dong)“2毛(mao)錢電價”新時代(dai)來臨，仍(reng)需(xu)從“源(yuan)—網—荷—儲”等方面進行“綜(zong)合配套改(gai)革”，以(yi)(yi)體制(zhi)機(ji)制(zhi)為(wei)保障，以(yi)(yi)各級政策為(wei)引導，以(yi)(yi)技術創新為(wei)手段，以(yi)(yi)市場競爭為(wei)動(dong)力(li)，才(cai)能實現能源(yuan)革命(ming)的“全面突破”，加(jia)速(su)能源(yuan)革命(ming)進程。