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近期，國聯證券發布氫能行業系列深度報告。以下為《綠氫風正帆懸平價在望》報告的要點內容。本篇報告重點探究了綠氫在深度脫碳領域發揮的作用，以及綠氫的降本路徑。

中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)承諾“雙碳(tan)”目(mu)標，推(tui)動綠(lv)氫(qing)在脫碳(tan)領(ling)域(yu)規模(mo)化應用：隨著我國(guo)(guo)“3060雙碳(tan)”目(mu)標的(de)(de)提(ti)出，全社會生產資料(liao)將向著低(di)碳(tan)化及(ji)凈零(ling)排放方向發展(zhan)，綠(lv)氫(qing)作為連接(jie)可再生能源與終端應用場景的(de)(de)綠(lv)色二次能源，將在工業、建筑、交通(tong)等領(ling)域(yu)扮演深度脫碳(tan)的(de)(de)重要(yao)角色。根據氫(qing)能聯盟數據，在碳(tan)中(zhong)和情(qing)形下，預計(ji)到(dao)2060年(nian)我國(guo)(guo)氫(qing)氣的(de)(de)年(nian)需求量(liang)將由(you)(you)目(mu)前的(de)(de)0.37億噸(dun)增至1.3億噸(dun)左右，在終端能源消費中(zhong)的(de)(de)占比(bi)由(you)(you)目(mu)前的(de)(de)5%提(ti)升至20%，工業及(ji)交通(tong)將是(shi)主要(yao)增量(liang)領(ling)域(yu)。

到2030年(nian)可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生綠氫(qing)(qing)或將實現(xian)與灰氫(qing)(qing)平(ping)價(jia)：從當前綠氫(qing)(qing)產業(ye)發(fa)展階段來看，整體處于(yu)產業(ye)導(dao)入階段，制約綠氫(qing)(qing)產業(ye)規模化發(fa)展的(de)核心(xin)因素在于(yu)制氫(qing)(qing)成本(ben)。通過(guo)對可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生電解水(shui)綠氫(qing)(qing)全(quan)生命(ming)周期成本(ben)的(de)拆解及(ji)預測，到2030年(nian)國內一些可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生資(zi)源(yuan)優勢(shi)區域，其綠氫(qing)(qing)成本(ben)將實現(xian)與灰氫(qing)(qing)（10元/kg左右）平(ping)價(jia)，到2040年(nian)則(ze)基本(ben)實現(xian)平(ping)價(jia)。

綠(lv)氫(qing)的(de)大規模(mo)應(ying)(ying)用或(huo)(huo)將(jiang)在(zai)2035-2040年(nian)實現(xian)：通過(guo)綠(lv)氫(qing)在(zai)各(ge)脫碳(tan)應(ying)(ying)用領域(yu)(yu)(yu)的(de)成(cheng)本競爭(zheng)力(li)分析，近(jin)5年(nian)綠(lv)氫(qing)將(jiang)率先在(zai)供熱(re)和(he)重(zhong)(zhong)卡(ka)行業(ye)得以應(ying)(ying)用；到2030年(nian)，部分可再生能源(yuan)(yuan)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)稟賦優勢區域(yu)(yu)(yu)，綠(lv)氫(qing)成(cheng)本可下探至與(yu)灰氫(qing)平(ping)價的(de)水(shui)平(ping)，氫(qing)能在(zai)重(zhong)(zhong)型運(yun)輸(shu)領域(yu)(yu)(yu)可實現(xian)價格競爭(zheng)力(li)；到2035年(nian)后(hou)，綠(lv)氫(qing)或(huo)(huo)將(jiang)作為極具競爭(zheng)力(li)的(de)能源(yuan)(yuan)在(zai)主流工(gong)業(ye)領域(yu)(yu)(yu)和(he)交通領域(yu)(yu)(yu)大規模(mo)推廣應(ying)(ying)用。

以下(xia)為本報(bao)告第(di)四(si)章《氫(qing)能(neng)脫碳核心制(zhi)約——平價綠氫(qing)何時(shi)到(dao)來？》一章的主要內容，轉發供參考。

一、可再生能源電解水制氫是氫脫碳路線成立的重要組成

目(mu)前，氫(qing)的(de)制(zhi)取主要有三種較為(wei)成熟的(de)技術路線：一是以(yi)煤(mei)炭、天然氣(qi)為(wei)代表的(de)化(hua)石能(neng)源重整制(zhi)氫(qing)；二是以(yi)焦爐煤(mei)氣(qi)、氯(lv)堿尾氣(qi)、丙烷脫氫(qing)為(wei)代表的(de)工業副產(chan)氣(qi)制(zhi)氫(qing)，三是電解水制(zhi)氫(qing)。從(cong)供應結構來看(kan)，化(hua)石能(neng)源制(zhi)氫(qing)是我國(guo)獲(huo)取廉價及穩定供應氫(qing)氣(qi)的(de)最主要來源，其次為(wei)工業副產(chan)氫(qing)，而電解水制(zhi)氫(qing)占比極小。

從各制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)氫路(lu)線(xian)的(de)(de)特點來看，傳統制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)氫工(gong)業(ye)中以煤炭、天然氣(qi)(qi)等化(hua)石能(neng)源為(wei)原料(liao)，制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)氫過程產(chan)(chan)生CO2排放，制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)得氫氣(qi)(qi)中普遍(bian)含有(you)硫、磷(lin)等有(you)害雜(za)質，對(dui)提純及碳捕(bu)獲有(you)著(zhu)較高(gao)的(de)(de)要求。焦爐煤氣(qi)(qi)、氯堿尾氣(qi)(qi)等工(gong)業(ye)副(fu)產(chan)(chan)提純制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)氫，能(neng)夠避免尾氣(qi)(qi)中的(de)(de)氫氣(qi)(qi)浪(lang)費，實現氫氣(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)高(gao)效利用，但(dan)從長遠看無法作為(wei)大規模集中化(hua)的(de)(de)氫能(neng)供(gong)應來看；電解水制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)氫純度等級高(gao)，雜(za)質氣(qi)(qi)體少(shao)，考慮減排效益(yi)，與可再生能(neng)源結合電解水制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)“綠(lv)氫”被認為(wei)是(shi)實現氫脫碳的(de)(de)最(zui)佳(jia)途徑。

堿(jian)(jian)性(xing)電解(jie)與(yu)PEM電解(jie)將是未(wei)來電解(jie)水(shui)主流工(gong)藝路線電解(jie)槽是利用(yong)(yong)可再(zai)(zai)生能源生產綠氫的關鍵設備(bei)。目前(qian)電解(jie)水(shui)制(zhi)氫主要有堿(jian)(jian)性(xing)電解(jie)、質(zhi)子交換(huan)膜（PEM）電解(jie)、固體氧化物（SOEC）電解(jie)這三種技術路線，根據各自(zi)技術特點(dian)以及(ji)商業化應用(yong)(yong)程度，堿(jian)(jian)性(xing)電解(jie)水(shui)制(zhi)氫路線及(ji)PEM電解(jie)水(shui)制(zhi)氫將是未(wei)來與(yu)可再(zai)(zai)生能源結合的主流電解(jie)水(shui)制(zhi)氫工(gong)藝路線。

堿性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)。該(gai)技術已實(shi)(shi)現(xian)大規模工業(ye)(ye)化應(ying)(ying)用(yong)，國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)關(guan)鍵設(she)(she)備(bei)主要(yao)性(xing)能指標均(jun)接(jie)近(jin)國(guo)(guo)際先進水平(ping)，設(she)(she)備(bei)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)低(di)，單槽電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)制(zhi)氫量(liang)較(jiao)大，易適(shi)用(yong)于電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)制(zhi)氫。PEM電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)。該(gai)技術國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)較(jiao)國(guo)(guo)際先進水平(ping)差距較(jiao)大，體現(xian)在(zai)技術成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)熟度、裝置(zhi)規模、使(shi)用(yong)壽命、經(jing)濟(ji)性(xing)等(deng)方面，國(guo)(guo)外已有通過(guo)(guo)多模塊(kuai)集成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)百兆瓦級PEM電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)水制(zhi)氫系統(tong)應(ying)(ying)用(yong)的(de)(de)項目案例。其運行靈活(huo)性(xing)和(he)(he)(he)反應(ying)(ying)效(xiao)率較(jiao)高(gao)，能夠以(yi)最低(di)功率保持待機模式，與(yu)波動性(xing)和(he)(he)(he)隨(sui)機性(xing)較(jiao)大的(de)(de)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)(he)光伏具有良好的(de)(de)匹配(pei)性(xing)。SOEC電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)。該(gai)技術的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)耗低(di)于堿性(xing)和(he)(he)(he)PEM電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)技術，但尚未廣泛商業(ye)(ye)化，國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)僅在(zai)實(shi)(shi)驗(yan)室規模上完(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)驗(yan)證示范。由于SOEC電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)水制(zhi)氫需要(yao)高(gao)溫(wen)環(huan)境，其較(jiao)為(wei)適(shi)合產生(sheng)高(gao)溫(wen)、高(gao)壓蒸汽的(de)(de)光熱發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)等(deng)系統(tong)。目前來看，堿性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)較(jiao)低(di)，經(jing)濟(ji)性(xing)較(jiao)好，市場份額(e)較(jiao)PEM電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽高(gao)一些。不(bu)過(guo)(guo)隨(sui)著燃料(liao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)技術的(de)(de)不(bu)斷(duan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)熟，質(zhi)子交換膜國(guo)(guo)產化的(de)(de)不(bu)斷(duan)加速突(tu)破，長期來看，PEM電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽的(de)(de)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)和(he)(he)(he)市場份額(e)將逐漸提高(gao)，與(yu)堿性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽接(jie)近(jin)持平(ping)，并根據各(ge)自與(yu)可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)的(de)(de)適(shi)配(pei)性(xing)應(ying)(ying)用(yong)在(zai)光伏、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)領域。

“灰(hui)氫(qing)”+CCUS技(ji)術近中期將(jiang)幫(bang)助“綠(lv)氫(qing)”實(shi)(shi)(shi)現過度雖然可再生能源電(dian)解(jie)水制氫(qing)是(shi)我國實(shi)(shi)(shi)現氫(qing)脫碳的(de)(de)終極之路，但從中國的(de)(de)國情來看，由于規模化(hua)(hua)、低成本的(de)(de)可再生能源電(dian)解(jie)水制氫(qing)產業(ye)尚未形成，因(yin)此已有(you)規模化(hua)(hua)、產業(ye)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)煤制氫(qing)路線仍將(jiang)長(chang)期存在，但是(shi)需要(yao)疊(die)加(jia)CCUS技(ji)術（碳捕集(ji)和封存利用(yong)）將(jiang)“灰(hui)氫(qing)”變為“藍(lan)氫(qing)”，補充氫(qing)能的(de)(de)供應，“灰(hui)氫(qing)”+CCUS技(ji)術近中期將(jiang)幫(bang)助“綠(lv)氫(qing)”實(shi)(shi)(shi)現過度。發展CCUS面臨的(de)(de)最大挑戰(zhan)是(shi)綜合成本相對過高。

二(er)、2030年可(ke)再生綠氫(qing)或將實現與灰(hui)氫(qing)平價低成(cheng)本(ben)可(ke)再生氫(qing)的(de)(de)(de)實現路徑對(dui)于氫(qing)氣(qi)未來能(neng)不(bu)能(neng)實現平價應(ying)用至關重要(yao)。目前(qian)(qian)，通過(guo)可(ke)再生能(neng)源(yuan)發電制取“綠氫(qing)”主(zhu)要(yao)面臨成(cheng)本(ben)高的(de)(de)(de)問題。一(yi)方面，當前(qian)(qian)階段以風(feng)電光伏(fu)為代表的(de)(de)(de)可(ke)再生能(neng)源(yuan)發電成(cheng)本(ben)還比較高；另一(yi)方面，電解槽(cao)的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)耗和(he)初始(shi)投(tou)資成(cheng)本(ben)較高，規(gui)模還較小(xiao)。因此，未來提高“綠氫(qing)”經濟性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)有效途(tu)徑將主(zhu)要(yao)依靠(kao)可(ke)再生能(neng)源(yuan)發電成(cheng)本(ben)的(de)(de)(de)下降，電解槽(cao)能(neng)耗和(he)投(tou)資成(cheng)本(ben)的(de)(de)(de)下降以及碳稅等(deng)政(zheng)策(ce)的(de)(de)(de)引導。

電解氫(qing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)主要(yao)受電力(li)(li)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)、電解槽投(tou)資成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)影響。電解氫(qing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)主要(yao)由3部分組(zu)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)：1）電力(li)(li)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)。依(yi)靠風電、光伏(fu)等(deng)可再生能(neng)源(yuan)產生的電力(li)(li)，將水電解成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)氫(qing)氣和(he)氧氣。2）投(tou)資成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)（CAPEX）。主要(yao)為(wei)電解槽系統成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)。3）運維成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)（OPEX）。因此，綠(lv)氫(qing)全生命周期成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)（LCOH）=電力(li)(li)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)+投(tou)資成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)（capex）+運行(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)（opex）。

以歐(ou)洲100MW規(gui)模(mo)綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)電解(jie)(jie)裝置為(wei)例，從(cong)該綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)制備(bei)的全生(sheng)命周期(qi)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)來看，可(ke)再生(sheng)電力成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)占(zhan)據綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)全生(sheng)命周期(qi)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)的56%，電解(jie)(jie)槽(cao)系統(tong)投(tou)(tou)資成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)占(zhan)據38%。因此(ci)，電價水平以及電解(jie)(jie)槽(cao)系統(tong)初始投(tou)(tou)資成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)的高低(di)直接影響最(zui)終綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)，同時影響綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)在各應用領域脫碳的節奏和進(jin)度。

為(wei)(wei)了探究(jiu)可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)水制氫(qing)何(he)時(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)夠實現與灰(hui)氫(qing)平(ping)(ping)價，我們對(dui)(dui)(dui)綠(lv)氫(qing)全(quan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)命周期(qi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)進(jin)行(xing)拆(chai)解(jie)及(ji)預(yu)(yu)測(ce)（僅(jin)對(dui)(dui)(dui)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)熟(shu)度(du)(du)水平(ping)(ping)較高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)堿性電(dian)(dian)解(jie)水制氫(qing)進(jin)行(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)拆(chai)解(jie)預(yu)(yu)測(ce)），對(dui)(dui)(dui)電(dian)(dian)力(li)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)、CAPEX、OPEX關鍵影響因素做出(chu)如下(xia)假設：（1）電(dian)(dian)力(li)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)平(ping)(ping)準化(hua)度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)（LCOE）。隨著(zhu)投資(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的(de)(de)下(xia)降以(yi)及(ji)技術的(de)(de)不(bu)斷進(jin)步(bu)，未來(lai)可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)將(jiang)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)(wei)一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費中的(de)(de)主體(ti)，可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)平(ping)(ping)準化(hua)度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)將(jiang)大幅下(xia)降，參考Hrdrogen council、IRENA、中國(guo)氫(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)聯盟以(yi)及(ji)發改委能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)所(suo)的(de)(de)預(yu)(yu)測(ce)，以(yi)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)為(wei)(wei)基準年(nian)(nian)(nian)，預(yu)(yu)計(ji)可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)綜合(he)度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)（包含光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)、風電(dian)(dian)）到2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)下(xia)降30%，到2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)下(xia)降60%。而部分(fen)(fen)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)、風電(dian)(dian)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)優(you)(you)質地區(qu)，其度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的(de)(de)降幅將(jiang)明(ming)顯快于(yu)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)水平(ping)(ping)，以(yi)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)例(li)，參考中國(guo)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)行(xing)業(ye)協(xie)會給出(chu)的(de)(de)數據，2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)國(guo)內(nei)部分(fen)(fen)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)利用小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數為(wei)(wei)1800h的(de)(de)地區(qu)，光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)已降低至(zhi)0.2元(yuan)/KWh，且未來(lai)仍有進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)下(xia)降空(kong)間(jian)。電(dian)(dian)解(jie)效(xiao)率(lv)。參考IRENA及(ji)IEA等(deng)權威機構(gou)數據，2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)國(guo)內(nei)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)水制氫(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)耗約為(wei)(wei)55kwh/kg-H2（對(dui)(dui)(dui)應65.7%的(de)(de)轉換(huan)效(xiao)率(lv)），未來(lai)隨著(zhu)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)槽工藝(yi)的(de)(de)不(bu)斷優(you)(you)化(hua)，特(te)別是改進(jin)交換(huan)膜(mo)、催化(hua)劑及(ji)系統(tong)集成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)，能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)效(xiao)將(jiang)進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)提高(gao)(gao)，預(yu)(yu)計(ji)到2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)國(guo)內(nei)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)效(xiao)率(lv)可(ke)以(yi)提升至(zhi)46kwh/kg-H2。

（2）CAPEX電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)初始投資(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)。影(ying)響電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)投資(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)的(de)主要因(yin)(yin)素(su)為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)制(zhi)(zhi)氫規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)，包括電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)堆規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)及電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)：1）電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)堆規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)化(hua)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)。當(dang)前(qian)(qian)單位電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)堆普遍為(wei)兆(zhao)瓦級規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)（目(mu)(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)全球(qiu)最(zui)大的(de)單一電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)堆電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)是位于(yu)(yu)日(ri)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)福島的(de)10MW電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)堆），根據IRENA權威機(ji)構(gou)數(shu)(shu)據，當(dang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)堆規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)由(you)1MW分別提升(sheng)至10MW、100MW時(shi)(shi)(shi)，相應電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)可(ke)分別降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)35%-45%、60%-70%；2）系(xi)(xi)統(tong)裝機(ji)量規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)化(hua)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)。當(dang)前(qian)(qian)全球(qiu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)約(yue)為(wei)20GWh，按(an)照IRENA機(ji)構(gou)給(gei)出的(de)能(neng)源方案中，保守(shou)情(qing)況下(xia)，到(dao)2030年(nian)(nian)全球(qiu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)將(jiang)(jiang)提升(sheng)至100GWh，屆時(shi)(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)將(jiang)(jiang)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)40%，樂觀情(qing)況下(xia)，到(dao)2030年(nian)(nian)全球(qiu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)將(jiang)(jiang)提升(sheng)至270GWh，屆時(shi)(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)將(jiang)(jiang)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)55%，到(dao)2050年(nian)(nian)，全球(qiu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)將(jiang)(jiang)進(jin)入(ru)TW時(shi)(shi)(shi)代，假設(she)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)達到(dao)1.7TWh，系(xi)(xi)統(tong)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)相較于(yu)(yu)目(mu)(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)將(jiang)(jiang)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)70。因(yin)(yin)此(ci)，綜合IRENA對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)化(hua)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)預(yu)期，另補充Hydrogen Council的(de)權威預(yu)測，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)隨著技(ji)術(shu)進(jin)步及規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)化(hua)到(dao)2030年(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)60-80%，隨后因(yin)(yin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)化(hua)因(yin)(yin)素(su)的(de)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)學習曲線率下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)，系(xi)(xi)統(tong)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)幅趨緩，但仍隨著技(ji)術(shu)的(de)進(jin)步不(bu)斷(duan)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)。資(zi)金(jin)(jin)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)（WACC）。目(mu)(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)的(de)加權平(ping)均(jun)資(zi)金(jin)(jin)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)假設(she)為(wei)10%，戶要考慮目(mu)(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)有關電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)水制(zhi)(zhi)綠氫項目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)相對(dui)風險(xian)較高。假設(she)2050年(nian)(nian)的(de)加權平(ping)均(jun)資(zi)金(jin)(jin)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)為(wei)6%，與目(mu)(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)投資(zi)可(ke)再生(sheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力水平(ping)相當(dang)。滿(man)載(zai)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)數(shu)(shu)（設(she)備利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)數(shu)(shu)）。滿(man)載(zai)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)數(shu)(shu)是指年(nian)(nian)度滿(man)負(fu)荷(he)(he)工作時(shi)(shi)(shi)間，由(you)于(yu)(yu)可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)側存在波動性，因(yin)(yin)此(ci)依靠可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)水制(zhi)(zhi)氫的(de)工作負(fu)荷(he)(he)將(jiang)(jiang)主要取決(jue)于(yu)(yu)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光伏等可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源自(zi)身發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)負(fu)荷(he)(he)的(de)提升(sheng)。參(can)考IRENA機(ji)構(gou)預(yu)測，假設(she)2020年(nian)(nian)滿(man)載(zai)負(fu)荷(he)(he)為(wei)3000小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)/年(nian)(nian)，到(dao)2050年(nian)(nian)提升(sheng)至4000小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)/年(nian)(nian)。

（3）OPEX固定(ding)運(yun)維(wei)。假設電解槽固定(ding)運(yun)維(wei)成(cheng)(cheng)本為電解槽初始投資成(cheng)(cheng)本的2%/年。

到2030年(nian)國(guo)內(nei)綠(lv)氫成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)可實現(xian)與(yu)灰(hui)氫平(ping)價(jia)通過對可再生(sheng)電(dian)解水綠(lv)氫全(quan)生(sheng)命周期成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的(de)拆解及預測(ce)，到2030年(nian)，隨著可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)LCOE以及電(dian)解槽系統成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的(de)快速下降，綠(lv)氫成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)將從2020年(nian)的(de)30.8元(yuan)(yuan)/kg快速降至(zhi)16.9元(yuan)(yuan)/kg。而2020年(nian)國(guo)內(nei)部分光伏利用小時數(shu)為(wei)1800h的(de)地區(qu)，光伏度(du)電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)已降低(di)至(zhi)0.2元(yuan)(yuan)/KWh，我們認為(wei)國(guo)內(nei)這(zhe)些可再生(sheng)資源(yuan)(yuan)優勢區(qu)域，其度(du)電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)到2030年(nian)將領先(xian)于行業平(ping)均水平(ping)達到0.1-0.15元(yuan)(yuan)/KWh，相(xiang)應(ying)的(de)綠(lv)氫成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)將率先(xian)實現(xian)與(yu)灰(hui)氫平(ping)價(jia)。

綠氫的大規模應用或將在2035-2040年實現

在碳中(zhong)和目(mu)標下，綠氫將(jiang)在工業(ye)、交(jiao)通(tong)、建筑(zhu)等碳排領(ling)域扮演重(zhong)要深度脫碳角色。通(tong)過綠氫在各(ge)脫碳應用(yong)領(ling)域的(de)成本競爭(zheng)(zheng)力(li)分(fen)析(xi)，近5年綠氫將(jiang)率先在供(gong)熱和重(zhong)卡行(xing)業(ye)得以應用(yong)，天然(ran)氣(qi)管網中(zhong)通(tong)過天然(ran)氣(qi)摻氫用(yong)于(yu)建筑(zhu)供(gong)熱，這將(jiang)是綠氫推廣的(de)首次商業(ye)應用(yong)。此外，由于(yu)政府和民(min)眾(zhong)在氫氣(qi)基礎設施建設方面(mian)的(de)支持，綠氫最(zui)早可(ke)能于(yu)2025年在為重(zhong)型車輛（如區(qu)域列車和重(zhong)卡）提供(gong)動力(li)方面(mian)具備競爭(zheng)(zheng)力(li)。

到(dao)2030年，部分可(ke)再生能(neng)源資源稟(bing)賦優勢(shi)區域(yu)(yu)，綠氫成本可(ke)下探至與灰氫平價(jia)的水平，即達到(dao)10-12元/kg，這意味著氫燃料(liao)可(ke)以取(qu)代(dai)柴油，也就標志著氫能(neng)在重型運輸(shu)領域(yu)(yu)極具(ju)價(jia)格競爭力的轉(zhuan)折。

到2035年后，綠氫或(huo)將作為極具競爭力的(de)能源在主(zhu)流(liu)工業領(ling)域和交通領(ling)域大規模(mo)推廣(guang)應用。