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2022年1月27日，中國電力企業聯合會舉辦新聞發布會，中電聯秘書長、新聞發言人郝英杰發布《2021-2022年度全國電力供需形勢分析預測報告》，中央廣播電視總臺、經濟日報等近20家新聞媒體的記者參加發布會。

報告內容如下：

2021-2022年(nian)度(du)全國電(dian)力供需(xu)形(xing)勢分析預測報告

2021年，面對復雜嚴峻的國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際環境(jing)和國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內疫情散發(fa)(fa)等(deng)多(duo)重考驗，在以(yi)習近平同志為(wei)核心的黨(dang)中(zhong)(zhong)央(yang)堅(jian)強領導下，各(ge)地區(qu)各(ge)部(bu)門(men)認真貫徹(che)落(luo)實黨(dang)中(zhong)(zhong)央(yang)、國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)務院決(jue)策部(bu)署，堅(jian)持穩中(zhong)(zhong)求進(jin)工(gong)作總基調(diao)，科學統籌疫情防控(kong)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)民經(jing)濟持續(xu)恢復發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。全(quan)(quan)年電(dian)力(li)消費增速(su)實現兩位數增長，電(dian)力(li)裝機結構延續(xu)綠色低碳發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)態勢(shi)。受電(dian)煤供應緊(jin)張等(deng)多(duo)重因(yin)素影響，9、10月(yue)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)電(dian)力(li)供需總體偏緊(jin)，多(duo)地出現有序(xu)用電(dian)。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家高度重視并出臺(tai)一系(xi)列能(neng)源電(dian)力(li)保(bao)供措施。電(dian)力(li)行業認真貫徹(che)黨(dang)中(zhong)(zhong)央(yang)、國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)務院決(jue)策部(bu)署，落(luo)實相關部(bu)門(men)要求，全(quan)(quan)力(li)以(yi)赴保(bao)民生、保(bao)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)、保(bao)供熱(re)，采取有力(li)有效(xiao)措施提升(sheng)能(neng)源電(dian)力(li)安全(quan)(quan)穩定保(bao)障能(neng)力(li)。2021年11月(yue)7日起至2021年底，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)有序(xu)用電(dian)規模基本清零，僅個別省(sheng)份對部(bu)分高耗能(neng)、高污(wu)染企業主動執行有序(xu)用電(dian)。

一、2021年全國電力供需情(qing)況

（一）電(dian)力消費需(xu)求情況(kuang)

2021年(nian)(nian)，全(quan)國(guo)全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量8.31萬億千(qian)瓦時，同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長10.3%，用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量快(kuai)速(su)(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長主(zhu)要受(shou)國(guo)內經(jing)濟持(chi)續恢(hui)復發展、上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期低基(ji)數、外貿出(chu)口快(kuai)速(su)(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長等(deng)因素拉動。一(yi)、二、三、四季度(du)，全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量同比(bi)(bi)分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長21.2%、11.8%、7.6%和(he)3.3%，受(shou)同期基(ji)數由(you)低走高等(deng)因素影響，同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)逐季回落。2021年(nian)(nian)，全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)平(ping)均增(zeng)(zeng)長7.1%，各季度(du)兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)平(ping)均增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)分別(bie)為7.0%、8.2%、7.1%和(he)6.4%，總體保持(chi)平(ping)穩較(jiao)快(kuai)增(zeng)(zeng)長。

一(yi)是第(di)一(yi)產(chan)業(ye)用電(dian)量(liang)1023億(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)16.4%，兩年平均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)14.6%。各(ge)季度第(di)一(yi)產(chan)業(ye)用電(dian)量(liang)同(tong)比分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)26.4%、15.9%、16.4%和12.4%，保持兩位數增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。國家深入推進(jin)鄉村(cun)振(zhen)興戰(zhan)略，農村(cun)電(dian)網改造升(sheng)級持續推進(jin)，鄉村(cun)用電(dian)條(tiao)件持續改善，第(di)一(yi)產(chan)業(ye)電(dian)氣化水(shui)平逐步提升(sheng)，多(duo)重(zhong)因素拉動第(di)一(yi)產(chan)業(ye)用電(dian)量(liang)快速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。

二(er)是第二(er)產業用電量(liang)5.61萬億千瓦(wa)時，同比(bi)增(zeng)長9.1%，兩(liang)年平均(jun)增(zeng)長6.4%。各季度(du)(du)第二(er)產業用電量(liang)同比(bi)分別增(zeng)長24.1%、10.6%、5.1%和1.1%，受上年同期基(ji)數(shu)逐步提高影響，用電量(liang)同比(bi)增(zeng)速(su)逐季回(hui)落。各季度(du)(du)第二(er)產業用電量(liang)兩(liang)年平均(jun)增(zeng)速(su)分別為7.4%、7.3%、6.1%和5.4%，三、四季度(du)(du)增(zeng)速(su)回(hui)落受高載能行業增(zeng)速(su)回(hui)落的影響較大。

2021年(nian)，制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)9.9%，兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)7.2%。其(qi)(qi)中，四大高載能行(xing)(xing)業(ye)合(he)計用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)6.4%，兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)6.0%，均(jun)呈逐季回落態(tai)勢(shi)，四季度同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為-1.9%。2021年(nian)，消費品(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)合(he)計用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)12.6%，兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)6.1%，低于制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)1.1個百分點。2021年(nian)，其(qi)(qi)他制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)合(he)計用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)13.9%，兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)9.0%。2021年(nian)，高技術(shu)及裝備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)合(he)計用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)15.7%，兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)9.9%，占制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)比(bi)重同(tong)(tong)比(bi)提高1.1個百分點；其(qi)(qi)中部(bu)分新興制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)高速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，醫療儀器設備(bei)及器械制(zhi)造(zao)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)24.9%，風能原動(dong)設備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)25.4%，新能源車(che)整(zheng)車(che)制(zhi)造(zao)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)46.8%，光伏設備(bei)及元器件(jian)制(zhi)造(zao)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)91.3%，反映出(chu)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)延續轉型升級態(tai)勢(shi)。

三(san)是第(di)三(san)產業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)1.42萬億(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)比增長(chang)17.8%，兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均(jun)增長(chang)9.5%。第(di)三(san)產業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均(jun)增速已基本(ben)恢復(fu)至(zhi)疫情(qing)前的(de)水(shui)平，但(dan)存在結構(gou)性差異。得益于電(dian)動汽車的(de)持續迅猛發(fa)展，充換電(dian)服務業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均(jun)增速達到79.0%。各季(ji)度(du)(du)，第(di)三(san)產業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比分(fen)別增長(chang)28.2%、23.6%、13.1%和(he)(he)9.0%；兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均(jun)增速分(fen)別為(wei)7.9%、12.0%、9.4%和(he)(he)8.7%，受(shou)多(duo)地疫情(qing)散發(fa)等因素影響，三(san)、四(si)季(ji)度(du)(du)的(de)兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均(jun)增速有所回落(luo)。部分(fen)接觸型聚集型服務業(ye)(ye)受(shou)疫情(qing)的(de)影響相對較大，三(san)、四(si)季(ji)度(du)(du)交通運輸/倉儲和(he)(he)郵(you)政業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均(jun)增速分(fen)別回落(luo)至(zhi)6.7%和(he)(he)4.9%；住宿和(he)(he)餐飲業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均(jun)增速分(fen)別回落(luo)至(zhi)6.8%和(he)(he)7.3%。

四是城(cheng)鄉居民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)(huo)用(yong)(yong)電量1.17萬億千瓦(wa)時，同比增長(chang)7.3%，兩年(nian)平(ping)均增長(chang)7.0%。各季(ji)度，城(cheng)鄉居民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)(huo)用(yong)(yong)電量同比分別增長(chang)4.7%、4.2%、11.3%和8.0%；兩年(nian)平(ping)均增速分別為(wei)3.9%、7.9%、8.0%和8.8%。一季(ji)度用(yong)(yong)電量增速偏低，主要受1月中(zhong)旬之后氣溫偏暖因素影響(xiang)；二(er)、三、四季(ji)度，城(cheng)鄉居民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)(huo)用(yong)(yong)電量兩年(nian)平(ping)均增速已基本恢(hui)復至(zhi)近年(nian)來的正(zheng)常增長(chang)水平(ping)。

五(wu)是全國共有19個省(sheng)(sheng)份用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)超過(guo)10%，31個省(sheng)(sheng)份兩(liang)年(nian)平均增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)均為正增(zeng)(zeng)長。2021年(nian)，西(xi)藏、青海、湖北用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為22.6%、15.6%和(he)15.3%；江西(xi)、四川、福建(jian)、浙江、廣(guang)東(dong)、重(zhong)慶、陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)、安徽、海南、湖南、寧夏、江蘇、山(shan)西(xi)、上海、新(xin)疆、廣(guang)西(xi)16個省(sheng)(sheng)份用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)超過(guo)10%。2021年(nian)，西(xi)藏、四川、江西(xi)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量兩(liang)年(nian)平均增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為14.1%、11.5%和(he)10.1%；青海、山(shan)東(dong)、福建(jian)、安徽、云南、新(xin)疆、廣(guang)東(dong)、廣(guang)西(xi)、浙江、陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)10個省(sheng)(sheng)份兩(liang)年(nian)平均增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)位于(yu)8%-10%。

（二）電力生(sheng)產供應情況(kuang)

截至2021年(nian)底(di)，全(quan)國全(quan)口徑(jing)發(fa)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量23.8億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，同(tong)比(bi)增長7.9%；全(quan)國規(gui)模(mo)以(yi)上工業企業發(fa)電量8.11萬億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)增長8.1%。

一是電(dian)(dian)力(li)工程年(nian)度完成投(tou)資(zi)再次超過1萬(wan)億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長2.9%，新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)海(hai)上風電(dian)(dian)并(bing)網(wang)(wang)裝機(ji)1690萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)。2021年(nian)，重點調查企業電(dian)(dian)力(li)完成投(tou)資(zi)10481億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長2.9%。其(qi)(qi)中，電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)完成投(tou)資(zi)4951億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長1.1%。電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)完成投(tou)資(zi)5530億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長4.5%，其(qi)(qi)中，非(fei)化石能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)投(tou)資(zi)占(zhan)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)投(tou)資(zi)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重達到88.6%。2021年(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)17629萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，其(qi)(qi)中，新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)非(fei)化石能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)13809萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)總容量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重為78.3%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提高5.2個百分點。2021年(nian)是國(guo)家財政(zheng)補貼海(hai)上風電(dian)(dian)新(xin)并(bing)網(wang)(wang)項目的(de)最后(hou)一年(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)并(bing)網(wang)(wang)海(hai)上風電(dian)(dian)1690萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，創歷年(nian)新(xin)高。

二是全口徑(jing)非化石(shi)能源發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)達到11.2億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，首次(ci)超(chao)過煤(mei)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)規模。截至2021年底，全國全口徑(jing)火(huo)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)13.0億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增長4.1%；其(qi)中，煤(mei)電(dian)11.1億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增長2.8%，占總(zong)發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重為46.7%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)降低2.3個百分點。水電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)3.9億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增長5.6%；其(qi)中，常規水電(dian)3.5億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，抽水蓄能3639萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。核電(dian)5326萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增長6.8%。風(feng)(feng)電(dian)3.3億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增長16.6%；其(qi)中，陸(lu)上(shang)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)3.0億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，海上(shang)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)2639萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。太陽能發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)3.1億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增長20.9%；其(qi)中，集(ji)中式光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)2.0億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，分布式光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)1.1億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，光(guang)熱發(fa)電(dian)57萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。全口徑(jing)非化石(shi)能源發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)11.2億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增長13.4%，占總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重為47.0%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提高2.3個百分點，歷史上(shang)首次(ci)超(chao)過煤(mei)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重。

三是全(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)(jing)非化(hua)石能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)12.0%，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)占總發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重為(wei)60.0%。2021年，受汛期主要流域降水(shui)(shui)偏少(shao)等因(yin)素影(ying)響，全(quan)(quan)(quan)國規模(mo)以(yi)上工業企(qi)業水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)下降2.5%；受電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)消費快速增長(chang)(chang)、水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)負(fu)增長(chang)(chang)影(ying)響，全(quan)(quan)(quan)國規模(mo)以(yi)上工業企(qi)業火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)8.4%。核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)11.3%。全(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)(jing)并網(wang)太陽能發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)分(fen)別(bie)增長(chang)(chang)25.2%和(he)40.5%。全(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)(jing)非化(hua)石能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)2.90萬億千瓦時，同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)12.0%；占全(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)(jing)總發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)比(bi)(bi)重為(wei)34.6%，同比(bi)(bi)提高0.7個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。全(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)(jing)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)5.03萬億千瓦時，同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)8.6%，占全(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)(jing)總發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)比(bi)(bi)重為(wei)60.0%，同比(bi)(bi)降低(di)0.7個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。無論從(cong)裝機規模(mo)看還是從(cong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)看，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)仍然是當前我國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供應(ying)的(de)最主要電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)，也是保(bao)障(zhang)我國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)定(ding)供應(ying)的(de)基礎(chu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)。

四是核(he)電(dian)、火電(dian)和風(feng)電(dian)發電(dian)設(she)備利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)同(tong)比(bi)分別提(ti)(ti)高352、237、154小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。2021年，全國發電(dian)設(she)備利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)3817小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)高60小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。其中，水電(dian)設(she)備利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)3622小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)低203小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。核(he)電(dian)7802小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)高352小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。并(bing)網(wang)風(feng)電(dian)2232小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)高154小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。并(bing)網(wang)太陽(yang)能發電(dian)1281小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，與上年總體持平。火電(dian)4448小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)高237小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；其中，煤電(dian)4586小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)高263小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；氣電(dian)2814小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)高204小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。

五是跨區(qu)輸出電(dian)(dian)量同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.2%，跨省(sheng)輸出電(dian)(dian)量同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.8%。2021年(nian)，全國完(wan)成跨區(qu)送(song)電(dian)(dian)量6876億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.2%，兩年(nian)平均增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)12.8%；其中，西北區(qu)域外送(song)電(dian)(dian)量3156億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)14.1%，占全國跨區(qu)送(song)電(dian)(dian)量的(de)45.9%。全國完(wan)成跨省(sheng)送(song)出電(dian)(dian)量1.60萬(wan)億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.8%，兩年(nian)平均增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)5.4%。

六是(shi)電力市場(chang)(chang)交(jiao)易(yi)電量同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)20.1%。2021年，全(quan)國各電力交(jiao)易(yi)中心累計組織完(wan)成市場(chang)(chang)交(jiao)易(yi)電量37787億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)19.3%，占全(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)電量比(bi)重(zhong)為45.5%，同(tong)比(bi)提高3.3個百分點。其中，全(quan)國電力市場(chang)(chang)中長(chang)(chang)期電力直接交(jiao)易(yi)電量合計為30405億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)22.8%。

七是(shi)電煤(mei)(mei)供需階(jie)段性失(shi)衡，煤(mei)(mei)炭價格(ge)創(chuang)歷史新(xin)(xin)高，煤(mei)(mei)電企(qi)業全(quan)面虧(kui)(kui)損(sun)(sun)。2021年，全(quan)國原煤(mei)(mei)產量(liang)(liang)同比增(zeng)長(chang)4.7%。3-9月各月原煤(mei)(mei)產量(liang)(liang)接近(jin)零增(zeng)長(chang)或負增(zeng)長(chang)，四(si)季度原煤(mei)(mei)產量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速明顯回(hui)升，電煤(mei)(mei)供應(ying)緊張局勢得到(dao)(dao)緩(huan)解。全(quan)年進口煤(mei)(mei)炭3.2億(yi)噸，同比增(zeng)長(chang)6.6%。煤(mei)(mei)炭供應(ying)緊張導致(zhi)電煤(mei)(mei)價格(ge)屢創(chuang)歷史新(xin)(xin)高。由于電煤(mei)(mei)價格(ge)的非理性上漲，燃(ran)料成本大(da)(da)幅(fu)上漲，煤(mei)(mei)電企(qi)業和熱(re)電聯產企(qi)業持續大(da)(da)幅(fu)虧(kui)(kui)損(sun)(sun)。大(da)(da)致(zhi)測(ce)算(suan)，2021年因(yin)電煤(mei)(mei)價格(ge)上漲導致(zhi)全(quan)國煤(mei)(mei)電企(qi)業電煤(mei)(mei)采購成本額外增(zeng)加6000億(yi)元左右。8月以來大(da)(da)型發電集團煤(mei)(mei)電板(ban)塊(kuai)整(zheng)體虧(kui)(kui)損(sun)(sun)，8-11月部(bu)分集團的煤(mei)(mei)電板(ban)塊(kuai)虧(kui)(kui)損(sun)(sun)面達到(dao)(dao)100%，全(quan)年累計(ji)虧(kui)(kui)損(sun)(sun)面達到(dao)(dao)80%左右。2021年底的電煤(mei)(mei)價格(ge)水平仍顯著(zhu)高于煤(mei)(mei)電企(qi)業的承受能力。

（三）全國電力供需情況

2021年，全(quan)(quan)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需形(xing)勢總體(ti)偏緊(jin)，年初、迎峰(feng)度(du)夏以及9-10月部分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)緊(jin)張。1月，受寒潮天(tian)氣等(deng)因(yin)素(su)影(ying)響，江(jiang)蘇、浙(zhe)江(jiang)、蒙西(xi)(xi)(xi)、湖(hu)南(nan)、江(jiang)西(xi)(xi)(xi)、安(an)徽、新疆、四(si)川等(deng)8個(ge)省(sheng)級電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網，在(zai)部分(fen)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)高(gao)峰(feng)時(shi)段電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)緊(jin)張，采(cai)取(qu)了(le)有(you)序(xu)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)措(cuo)施。迎峰(feng)度(du)夏期(qi)間（6-8月），廣東(dong)、河(he)南(nan)、廣西(xi)(xi)(xi)、云南(nan)、湖(hu)南(nan)、貴州(zhou)、江(jiang)西(xi)(xi)(xi)、蒙西(xi)(xi)(xi)、浙(zhe)江(jiang)、重(zhong)慶(qing)、陜西(xi)(xi)(xi)、湖(hu)北等(deng)12個(ge)省(sheng)級電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網，在(zai)部分(fen)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)高(gao)峰(feng)時(shi)段電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)緊(jin)張，采(cai)取(qu)了(le)有(you)序(xu)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)措(cuo)施。9-10月，受電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤等(deng)燃(ran)料供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)緊(jin)張、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比減少(shao)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)消費需求(qiu)較(jiao)快增長(chang)以及部分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)加強(qiang)“能(neng)耗雙(shuang)控(kong)”等(deng)多重(zhong)因(yin)素(su)疊加影(ying)響，全(quan)(quan)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需總體(ti)偏緊(jin)，共有(you)超過20個(ge)省(sheng)級電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網采(cai)取(qu)了(le)有(you)序(xu)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)措(cuo)施，個(ge)別地區(qu)(qu)少(shao)數(shu)時(shi)段出現拉閘(zha)限(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。國家(jia)高(gao)度(du)重(zhong)視(shi)并出臺一(yi)系列能(neng)源電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)保供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)措(cuo)施，效果顯著，2021年11月7日起至2021年底，全(quan)(quan)國有(you)序(xu)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)規模(mo)基本清(qing)零，僅(jin)個(ge)別省(sheng)份(fen)對部分(fen)高(gao)耗能(neng)、高(gao)污染企業主動(dong)執(zhi)行有(you)序(xu)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。

二、全國電力供需(xu)形勢預測

（一）2022年全社會(hui)用電(dian)量同比增長5%-6%

中(zhong)央經(jing)濟(ji)工(gong)作(zuo)會(hui)議強調2022年經(jing)濟(ji)工(gong)作(zuo)要穩(wen)(wen)字當頭、穩(wen)(wen)中(zhong)求進，各(ge)方面要積(ji)極推(tui)出有利(li)于經(jing)濟(ji)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)的政(zheng)策，為2022年全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)(chang)提供(gong)了最主要支(zhi)撐。綜合考(kao)慮國內(nei)外經(jing)濟(ji)形勢、電(dian)能替(ti)代等(deng)帶(dai)動電(dian)氣化水平穩(wen)(wen)步提升(sheng)、上年基數前后變(bian)化等(deng)因(yin)素，并結合多種方法對(dui)全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)的預測(ce)，以及電(dian)力供(gong)需形勢分析預測(ce)專家的預判(pan)，預計2022年全年全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)8.7萬億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時-8.8萬億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，同比增長(chang)(chang)5%-6%，各(ge)季度全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增速總體呈逐季上升(sheng)態勢。

（二）2022年底非(fei)化(hua)石能源發電(dian)裝(zhuang)機占總裝(zhuang)機比重有望首次達(da)到50%

在新(xin)能源快速發(fa)(fa)展帶動下(xia)，預(yu)計2022年基建(jian)新(xin)增裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規模將(jiang)創(chuang)歷年新(xin)高，全年基建(jian)新(xin)增發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量2.3億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，其中非化石能源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)投產1.8億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)。預(yu)計2022年底全口徑發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量達到26億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，其中，非化石能源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)合計達到13億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，將(jiang)有望首次達到總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規模的一半(ban)。水電(dian)(dian)(dian)4.1億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)、并網風電(dian)(dian)(dian)3.8億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)、并網太陽能發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)4.0億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)5557萬千瓦(wa)(wa)、生物(wu)質(zhi)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)4500萬千瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)。煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量11.4億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)。

（三）全國電力供需(xu)總體平衡，迎峰度(du)夏和迎峰度(du)冬期間部分區域電力供需(xu)偏緊(jin)

隨(sui)著我國(guo)消(xiao)費結構及產業結構持續(xu)調(diao)整升級(ji)，負荷“冬(dong)夏(xia)”雙高峰(feng)(feng)(feng)特征(zheng)逐步呈現常態化。全(quan)(quan)球疫情(qing)仍在(zai)持續(xu)，外部形勢(shi)更加復雜多(duo)變，既要(yao)(yao)(yao)保障電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)應(ying)，又要(yao)(yao)(yao)積極推動能源轉型。宏觀(guan)經濟、燃料供(gong)(gong)應(ying)、氣溫、降(jiang)水等(deng)多(duo)方面(mian)因素均給電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)形勢(shi)帶來(lai)較大的不確(que)定性。根據電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)需(xu)求預(yu)測，基于對氣溫、來(lai)水、電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)供(gong)(gong)應(ying)等(deng)關鍵要(yao)(yao)(yao)素的分析，并綜合考慮新投產裝機、跨(kua)省跨(kua)區電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)交換、發電(dian)(dian)出力(li)(li)及合理備用等(deng)，預(yu)計2022年全(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)總(zong)體平衡，迎峰(feng)(feng)(feng)度夏(xia)、迎峰(feng)(feng)(feng)度冬(dong)期間部分區域電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)偏緊(jin)。

迎峰度夏期(qi)間(jian)，電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)總體(ti)平(ping)衡，高(gao)峰時段電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)偏(pian)(pian)緊；其中，華(hua)(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)、東北(bei)(bei)(bei)、西北(bei)(bei)(bei)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)(yu)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)基(ji)本平(ping)衡，華(hua)(hua)東、華(hua)(hua)中、南(nan)方區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)(yu)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)偏(pian)(pian)緊。迎峰度冬期(qi)間(jian)，電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)總體(ti)平(ping)衡，高(gao)峰時段電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)偏(pian)(pian)緊；其中，華(hua)(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)、東北(bei)(bei)(bei)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)(yu)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)基(ji)本平(ping)衡，華(hua)(hua)東、華(hua)(hua)中、西北(bei)(bei)(bei)、南(nan)方區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)(yu)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)偏(pian)(pian)緊。

三、有關建議

針對當前(qian)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)形勢、電(dian)力(li)行業(ye)可持續發(fa)展等方面提出有關建議如(ru)下：

（一(yi)）確保電力(li)燃料穩定供應，發揮煤電兜底作用，保障電力(li)供需(xu)平(ping)衡(heng)

一(yi)是加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)強能(neng)(neng)源安(an)全監(jian)(jian)測(ce)預(yu)(yu)警。提升(sheng)對(dui)電(dian)(dian)力(li)燃(ran)料運(yun)行(xing)和(he)發(fa)(fa)展趨(qu)勢(shi)的(de)監(jian)(jian)測(ce)能(neng)(neng)力(li)、對(dui)潛在能(neng)(neng)源供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)風(feng)險的(de)研判預(yu)(yu)警能(neng)(neng)力(li)，關注(zhu)重點(dian)時(shi)段(duan)重點(dian)區域的(de)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)形(xing)勢(shi)，及(ji)時(shi)發(fa)(fa)布監(jian)(jian)測(ce)預(yu)(yu)警信息，保(bao)障能(neng)(neng)源穩(wen)定運(yun)行(xing)。二(er)是繼續增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)國內煤(mei)炭供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)總量，并(bing)形(xing)成(cheng)煤(mei)礦應(ying)(ying)急生產(chan)能(neng)(neng)力(li)。堅定不(bu)移增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)國內煤(mei)炭供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)能(neng)(neng)力(li)，加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)大優質產(chan)能(neng)(neng)釋(shi)放(fang)力(li)度，增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)煤(mei)炭總供(gong)(gong)(gong)給。制(zhi)定煤(mei)礦保(bao)供(gong)(gong)(gong)與彈性生產(chan)辦法，優先組織滿足條件的(de)先進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)煤(mei)礦按(an)一(yi)定系(xi)數(shu)調增(zeng)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)，形(xing)成(cheng)煤(mei)礦應(ying)(ying)急生產(chan)能(neng)(neng)力(li)。加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)快(kuai)推進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)煤(mei)炭儲(chu)(chu)(chu)備(bei)(bei)能(neng)(neng)力(li)建(jian)設，多措并(bing)舉(ju)擴大煤(mei)炭儲(chu)(chu)(chu)備(bei)(bei)規(gui)(gui)模，提升(sheng)全國儲(chu)(chu)(chu)煤(mei)能(neng)(neng)力(li)。保(bao)持(chi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口電(dian)(dian)力(li)燃(ran)料政(zheng)策(ce)的(de)穩(wen)定性，通過市場(chang)手段(duan)調節(jie)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口煤(mei)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)，充分發(fa)(fa)揮進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口電(dian)(dian)力(li)燃(ran)料的(de)有(you)效(xiao)作用。三是推進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)中(zhong)長(chang)協簽訂(ding)及(ji)履約(yue)(yue)監(jian)(jian)管工(gong)作。進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)一(yi)步明確煤(mei)炭中(zhong)長(chang)期合(he)(he)(he)(he)同(tong)采用“基(ji)準價(jia)+浮動價(jia)”價(jia)格機制(zhi)的(de)基(ji)本(ben)要(yao)求，規(gui)(gui)范合(he)(he)(he)(he)同(tong)簽訂(ding)，不(bu)折不(bu)扣貫徹落實(shi)國家政(zheng)策(ce)。加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)強履約(yue)(yue)監(jian)(jian)管，明確監(jian)(jian)管范圍(wei)，所(suo)有(you)合(he)(he)(he)(he)規(gui)(gui)中(zhong)長(chang)期合(he)(he)(he)(he)同(tong)均應(ying)(ying)納入(ru)政(zheng)府監(jian)(jian)管，且(qie)標準要(yao)求一(yi)致；將中(zhong)長(chang)期履約(yue)(yue)評價(jia)納入(ru)企(qi)業(ye)信用體系(xi)，建(jian)立信用管理常態化(hua)機制(zhi)，對(dui)惡意(yi)違(wei)約(yue)(yue)、中(zhong)長(chang)期合(he)(he)(he)(he)同(tong)履約(yue)(yue)率(lv)過低的(de)責任方(fang)企(qi)業(ye)，實(shi)施失信聯合(he)(he)(he)(he)懲(cheng)戒。四是繼續給予火電(dian)(dian)企(qi)業(ye)金(jin)融(rong)等政(zheng)策(ce)支(zhi)持(chi)，保(bao)障企(qi)業(ye)燃(ran)料采購(gou)資金(jin)。對(dui)符合(he)(he)(he)(he)支(zhi)持(chi)條件的(de)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)、熱電(dian)(dian)等企(qi)業(ye)建(jian)立快(kuai)速響應(ying)(ying)機制(zhi)，開辟(pi)綠色(se)辦貸(dai)通道，優先安(an)排貸(dai)款審(shen)批投(tou)放(fang)；對(dui)符合(he)(he)(he)(he)支(zhi)持(chi)條件的(de)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)等企(qi)業(ye)和(he)項(xiang)目不(bu)違(wei)規(gui)(gui)抽貸(dai)、斷貸(dai)，維持(chi)企(qi)業(ye)資金(jin)鏈正常運(yun)轉，切實(shi)保(bao)障企(qi)業(ye)燃(ran)料采購(gou)資金(jin)到(dao)位，避免(mian)因資金(jin)短缺(que)(que)而出現缺(que)(que)煤(mei)缺(que)(que)氣停機問題。

（二(er)）發揮行政和市場兩種(zhong)調節手段，平抑電力產業鏈波動

一(yi)是(shi)合理(li)(li)(li)確(que)定(ding)(ding)(ding)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)中(zhong)長期(qi)合同(tong)基(ji)準(zhun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)。綜(zong)合考慮系(xi)(xi)統安(an)全及(ji)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)企業可(ke)持續(xu)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)生產，合理(li)(li)(li)確(que)定(ding)(ding)(ding)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)中(zhong)長期(qi)合同(tong)基(ji)準(zhun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)；強(qiang)化(hua)“基(ji)準(zhun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)+浮動(dong)(dong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)”機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)唯(wei)一(yi)性、嚴(yan)肅性，嚴(yan)禁各區域(yu)、各煤(mei)(mei)礦自行(xing)創設指數(shu)和(he)定(ding)(ding)(ding)價(jia)(jia)(jia)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，避免多種價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)和(he)捆綁搭售引起的(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)體(ti)系(xi)(xi)混亂。二是(shi)理(li)(li)(li)順市(shi)(shi)場(chang)環境下電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。進(jin)一(yi)步完善(shan)和(he)落實(shi)煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)(jia)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，引導煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)(jia)長期(qi)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)在合理(li)(li)(li)區間。督促各地加(jia)快落實(shi)《關于(yu)進(jin)一(yi)步深化(hua)燃(ran)煤(mei)(mei)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)上(shang)(shang)網(wang)(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)化(hua)改革的(de)(de)通知(zhi)》（發改價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)〔2021〕1439號）文件中(zhong)燃(ran)煤(mei)(mei)基(ji)準(zhun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)上(shang)(shang)下浮動(dong)(dong)20%的(de)(de)政(zheng)策，切實(shi)有(you)(you)效(xiao)疏導煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)上(shang)(shang)網(wang)(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)。穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)上(shang)(shang)下游價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)，防(fang)止(zhi)產業鏈(lian)波動(dong)(dong)推高(gao)終(zhong)端用能(neng)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本，控制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)燃(ran)料及(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本在社會(hui)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本可(ke)承受(shou)范圍(wei)之內，促進(jin)經(jing)濟健康可(ke)持續(xu)發展。三是(shi)加(jia)快全國統一(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)建設，完善(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)規則體(ti)系(xi)(xi)。深化(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)建設，加(jia)快建立現貨市(shi)(shi)場(chang)、輔(fu)助服務市(shi)(shi)場(chang)和(he)容量(liang)補償機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，完善(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，給予提(ti)(ti)供調(diao)頻、備用等(deng)輔(fu)助服務的(de)(de)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機組合理(li)(li)(li)補償，化(hua)解沉沒成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本，促進(jin)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)企業可(ke)持續(xu)發展。進(jin)一(yi)步明確(que)跨(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)區送電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)交易價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。四是(shi)深化(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)需求側(ce)管理(li)(li)(li)，加(jia)強(qiang)有(you)(you)序用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)執行(xing)管控。推動(dong)(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)需求側(ce)管理(li)(li)(li)向“市(shi)(shi)場(chang)化(hua)響應”轉變，拉大峰谷分(fen)時電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)差，調(diao)動(dong)(dong)各類負荷側(ce)資(zi)源參與系(xi)(xi)統調(diao)節，提(ti)(ti)高(gao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統運行(xing)效(xiao)率。建立健全分(fen)級有(you)(you)序用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)應急管理(li)(li)(li)工(gong)作機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，強(qiang)化(hua)有(you)(you)序用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)作措施。

（三）加快推進(jin)新(xin)型電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統建(jian)設，促(cu)進(jin)能源電(dian)力(li)結(jie)構轉型

一是(shi)加(jia)快(kuai)研發(fa)和突破新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)關鍵技術(shu)(shu)。集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)力(li)(li)量開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)復雜大(da)(da)(da)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)安(an)全穩定(ding)運行和控制(zhi)、大(da)(da)(da)容(rong)量風電(dian)(dian)、高效(xiao)光伏、大(da)(da)(da)容(rong)量儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)以及(ji)低(di)成(cheng)本CCUS等技術(shu)(shu)創(chuang)新(xin)。二是(shi)科學有序(xu)(xu)推(tui)動大(da)(da)(da)規模新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)建(jian)(jian)設(she)。持續(xu)優化(hua)(hua)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)布(bu)局，因(yin)地(di)制(zhi)宜發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，在(zai)東部地(di)區(qu)建(jian)(jian)立多能(neng)(neng)互(hu)補能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)體(ti)系(xi)，在(zai)西部北部地(di)區(qu)加(jia)大(da)(da)(da)風能(neng)(neng)、太陽能(neng)(neng)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)規模化(hua)(hua)、集(ji)約化(hua)(hua)開(kai)發(fa)力(li)(li)度(du)。針對(dui)(dui)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)配置儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)建(jian)(jian)立“統(tong)一調(diao)度(du)、共享(xiang)使用”的(de)協調(diao)運行機(ji)制(zhi)，最大(da)(da)(da)程度(du)發(fa)揮(hui)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)促進(jin)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消納、調(diao)峰調(diao)頻、功率支撐等多重(zhong)作用。三是(shi)科學有序(xu)(xu)推(tui)進(jin)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)清潔轉型，繼續(xu)發(fa)揮(hui)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)基礎性(xing)作用。在(zai)推(tui)進(jin)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)改造(zao)(zao)升級過(guo)程中(zhong)(zhong)，建(jian)(jian)議統(tong)籌考慮煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)節能(neng)(neng)改造(zao)(zao)、供(gong)熱(re)改造(zao)(zao)、靈活性(xing)改造(zao)(zao)及(ji)機(ji)組(zu)的(de)技術(shu)(shu)特性(xing)，對(dui)(dui)不同(tong)類(lei)型的(de)機(ji)組(zu)采用不同(tong)的(de)供(gong)電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)耗改造(zao)(zao)基準(zhun)線，不“一刀(dao)切”。建(jian)(jian)立合理的(de)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)機(ji)制(zhi)疏導“三改聯(lian)動”技改成(cheng)本。四是(shi)加(jia)快(kuai)構建(jian)(jian)大(da)(da)(da)規模源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷儲(chu)(chu)友(you)好(hao)互(hu)動系(xi)統(tong)。加(jia)大(da)(da)(da)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷儲(chu)(chu)協同(tong)互(hu)動，對(dui)(dui)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)柔(rou)性(xing)負荷進(jin)行策略(lve)引導和集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)控制(zhi)，充分利用用戶側資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，化(hua)(hua)解短時電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)需矛盾。將新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)設(she)備等多類(lei)型需求(qiu)響應資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)統(tong)籌納入電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)運行調(diao)度(du)，提高電(dian)(dian)網(wang)的(de)靈活性(xing)。

注釋：

兩年(nian)平(ping)均增長（增速(su)）是以2019年(nian)同期值為(wei)基數，采(cai)用幾何平(ping)均方法計算。

四(si)大(da)高載能行業包括：化(hua)學原料(liao)和(he)化(hua)學制品(pin)(pin)制造業、非金(jin)屬礦物制品(pin)(pin)業、黑(hei)色(se)金(jin)屬冶煉和(he)壓延加工業、有色(se)金(jin)屬冶煉和(he)壓延加工業4個行業。

高技術(shu)及(ji)裝(zhuang)備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)包括：醫藥制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)、金屬制(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)、通用(yong)設備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)、專用(yong)設備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)、汽車(che)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)、鐵(tie)路/船舶/航空航天和其他運輸設備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)、電氣機(ji)械和器材(cai)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)、計算機(ji)/通信和其他電子設備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)、儀器儀表制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)9個(ge)行業(ye)。

消費品(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)包括：農(nong)副食(shi)品(pin)(pin)加工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、食(shi)品(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、酒/飲料及精制(zhi)(zhi)茶制(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、煙草制(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、紡(fang)織業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、紡(fang)織服(fu)裝、服(fu)飾業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、皮革/毛(mao)皮/羽毛(mao)及其制(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)和(he)制(zhi)(zhi)鞋業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、木(mu)材加工(gong)和(he)木(mu)/竹/藤(teng)/棕/草制(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、家(jia)具制(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、造紙(zhi)和(he)紙(zhi)制(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、印(yin)刷和(he)記錄(lu)媒介(jie)復制(zhi)(zhi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、文教/工(gong)美/體育和(he)娛樂用品(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)12個行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。

其(qi)他(ta)(ta)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)為制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用電分(fen)類(lei)的31個(ge)(ge)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中(zhong)，除四大(da)高載能行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、高技(ji)術及裝備制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、消費品(pin)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)之外的其(qi)他(ta)(ta)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，包括：石(shi)油/煤炭及其(qi)他(ta)(ta)燃料加工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、化學纖維制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、橡膠(jiao)和塑(su)料制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、其(qi)他(ta)(ta)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、廢棄資(zi)源綜(zong)合利用業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、金屬制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)/機械和設(she)備修(xiu)理業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)6個(ge)(ge)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。

東(dong)部地區包括(kuo)北(bei)京、天津、河北(bei)、上海、江蘇、浙(zhe)江、福建、山(shan)東(dong)、廣(guang)東(dong)、海南10個(ge)省（市(shi)）；中(zhong)部地區包括(kuo)山(shan)西(xi)、安(an)徽(hui)、江西(xi)、河南、湖北(bei)、湖南6個(ge)省；西(xi)部地區包括(kuo)內(nei)蒙古、廣(guang)西(xi)、重慶(qing)、四川、貴州、云南、西(xi)藏、陜西(xi)、甘肅、青海、寧(ning)夏、新疆(jiang)12個(ge)省（市(shi)、自治區）；東(dong)北(bei)地區包括(kuo)遼寧(ning)、吉林(lin)、黑龍江3個(ge)省。