碳達峰、碳中和目標是我國能源安全和經濟轉型的內在需求和必然選擇,事關中華民族永續發展,對國際社會綠色低碳發展將起到促進作用,彰顯了負責任大國對構建人類命運共同體的使命與擔當。
在(zai)碳(tan)達峰、碳(tan)中(zhong)和目標指引下,預計(ji)到(dao)2060年(nian),我國風電(dian)(dian)、光伏等(deng)新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量占比(bi)將(jiang)達65%,未(wei)(wei)來的能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費比(bi)重(zhong)中(zhong),可再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)將(jiang)從能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力消費的增量補充變為增量主(zhu)體(ti)。這意味(wei)著在(zai)未(wei)(wei)來電(dian)(dian)力系統中(zhong)新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)將(jiang)成(cheng)為主(zhu)力電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),煤電(dian)(dian)等(deng)傳統化石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)將(jiang)退為輔助性(xing)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。
廣泛接入的(de)(de)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)將(jiang)(jiang)改(gai)變傳統電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統未來格(ge)局。在(zai)供給(gei)側,新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)呈集中(zhong)式(shi)和(he)分布(bu)式(shi)并(bing)存的(de)(de)局面(mian),且根據資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)特點(dian)、地(di)理(li)分布(bu)、建(jian)設條件等靈活布(bu)局,將(jiang)(jiang)出現(xian)“新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)+儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)”“新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)+氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)”“水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)+光伏+儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)”等多元協調電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)新(xin)模式(shi)。在(zai)需(xu)求(qiu)側,電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)占終端(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費的(de)(de)比重大(da)(da)幅提升,終端(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費“新(xin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)”進(jin)程加快,電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)替代將(jiang)(jiang)持續提高建(jian)筑(zhu)、交通(tong)、工業終端(duan)用能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)領域的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)占比。供給(gei)側和(he)需(xu)求(qiu)側的(de)(de)結構(gou)性變化(hua)將(jiang)(jiang)給(gei)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)網(wang)絡的(de)(de)安全穩定和(he)綠色(se)高效帶來重大(da)(da)挑戰。因此(ci),亟需(xu)開展(zhan)新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統建(jian)設,發(fa)(fa)揮其在(zai)全社會能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)優化(hua)配(pei)置中(zhong)的(de)(de)積極作用,促進(jin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)綠色(se)生產(chan)和(he)消(xiao)費,落實能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)戰略,支(zhi)撐“雙碳”目標實現(xian)。
新型電力系統具有綠色低碳、靈活柔性、數字智能三大特征
新(xin)型電力系(xi)統強調數(shu)字技術進步與用戶需求變(bian)革驅動(dong),以建設多樣(yang)互(hu)動(dong)的用電體(ti)系(xi)為目標,推動(dong)源網(wang)荷儲互(hu)動(dong)融合(he)和關(guan)(guan)鍵技術應用,更(geng)加關(guan)(guan)注電網(wang)數(shu)據(ju)價值發現和創造(zao),表(biao)現為綠色(se)低(di)碳、靈活柔性、數(shu)字智(zhi)能三大特(te)征。
綠色低碳:新能(neng)源占(zhan)主導地位,預計到(dao)“十四五”末(mo),我國(guo)可再生能(neng)源發電(dian)裝機占(zhan)比將超過50%,可再生能(neng)源在全社(she)會用電(dian)量增量中的(de)占(zhan)比將達2/3左(zuo)右(you),未來在新一輪科技革命(ming)推動(dong)下,電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)將向深度低碳或零碳電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)不斷(duan)演進。
靈(ling)活柔(rou)性:隨著新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)裝機規模迅速增加,電(dian)源(yuan)出力(li)特性愈發(fa)(fa)復雜,不確定性明顯。特高(gao)壓(ya)柔(rou)性直流輸電(dian)技術(shu)將(jiang)支撐大(da)規模新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)集中開發(fa)(fa)與跨省區高(gao)效(xiao)優化(hua)配置(zhi),數字化(hua)調控技術(shu)將(jiang)使電(dian)網(wang)更(geng)加靈(ling)活可控,可實現新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)靈(ling)活、安全、高(gao)效(xiao)廣泛接入電(dian)網(wang),以及分(fen)布式新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)高(gao)效(xiao)就地(di)消納。
數字智能(neng)(neng):新(xin)一代(dai)數字技術(shu)通過(guo)設備終端提升電網(wang)數據采集、分析和應用能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li),使(shi)電網(wang)具備超強(qiang)感知(zhi)能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)、強(qiang)大“算力(li)(li)(li)(li)+電力(li)(li)(li)(li)”能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)、智慧(hui)決策能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)和快速執行能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li),數字技術(shu)與傳統電力(li)(li)(li)(li)技術(shu)深度(du)融(rong)合促進(jin)電力(li)(li)(li)(li)系統上下游各環節(jie)智能(neng)(neng)化、智慧(hui)化,為源網(wang)荷儲一體化協調發展提供關鍵保障。
由此可見,新(xin)(xin)型(xing)電(dian)力系統作(zuo)為新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)優(you)化配置(zhi)平臺的(de)作(zuo)用將更加顯著(zhu),可提升(sheng)能源(yuan)消納(na)效率和經(jing)濟性。同時(shi),新(xin)(xin)一代數字技(ji)術使電(dian)網“可觀、可測(ce)、可控”成為現實。
高比例新能源特性將對可靠供電等帶來新挑戰
新(xin)型電力系統(tong)將呈現(xian)高比例新(xin)能源特性(xing),對可(ke)靠供電、安(an)全穩定和經濟運行等帶來新(xin)挑戰:
電(dian)(dian)力系統持續(xu)可靠(kao)供電(dian)(dian)面臨(lin)新(xin)挑(tiao)戰(zhan)。新(xin)能源隨機性(xing)、波動(dong)性(xing)、間歇性(xing)等(deng)特點對(dui)(dui)持續(xu)可靠(kao)供電(dian)(dian)帶來(lai)挑(tiao)戰(zhan),常規(gui)電(dian)(dian)源調節(jie)難以應對(dui)(dui)新(xin)能源日內功率波動(dong),新(xin)能源消納存在巨大挑(tiao)戰(zhan)。而且,風光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)不(bu)確(que)定(ding)性(xing)大,風電(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)主要集中在春(chun)冬兩(liang)季,光伏(fu)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)主要集中在夏秋兩(liang)季。同時,風電(dian)(dian)利(li)用(yong)(yong)小時數(shu)、光伏(fu)利(li)用(yong)(yong)小時數(shu)相差大,這對(dui)(dui)系統規(gui)劃提(ti)出了更高要求。
電(dian)力系統(tong)(tong)負荷(he)預(yu)(yu)測難(nan)度加大。作為清潔的終端(duan)能(neng)源,電(dian)能(neng)將成為主(zhu)要的能(neng)源消費品種(zhong),電(dian)力負荷(he)結構將更加多元化,電(dian)動汽車充電(dian)等消費側多樣(yang)性行為將導致電(dian)力負荷(he)預(yu)(yu)測和協調難(nan)度加大,源、網、荷(he)互動和交織將加劇電(dian)力系統(tong)(tong)波動。
大(da)(da)規(gui)模儲(chu)能增(zeng)加(jia)電(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)復雜(za)度。廣泛(fan)的(de)新能源并網消納需(xu)合理(li)配(pei)置大(da)(da)規(gui)模儲(chu)能,以提高系(xi)統(tong)的(de)可控性(xing)和靈活性(xing)。預計(ji)到2060年,全國儲(chu)能裝機容量將達7.5億千瓦(wa),大(da)(da)量電(dian)力電(dian)子變換器型(xing)儲(chu)能裝置增(zeng)加(jia)將使得系(xi)統(tong)的(de)復雜(za)度進一步增(zeng)加(jia)。
電網安(an)全(quan)穩定運行難(nan)度增大(da)。新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)具有廣泛的接入(ru)優勢,這使(shi)得電力(li)系統電壓穩定控(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)問題突出。大(da)規(gui)模新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)接入(ru)使(shi)電力(li)系統不確定性(xing)增加,對電網安(an)全(quan)構成威脅,而且,新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)存在(zai)發電單(dan)體容量(liang)小、數(shu)(shu)量(liang)多的問題。未(wei)來(lai),全(quan)國(guo)新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)發電單(dan)元將達(da)(da)數(shu)(shu)千萬級,氣象環境、運行控(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)等(deng)信號數(shu)(shu)量(liang)可達(da)(da)數(shu)(shu)十億,系統調度運行極(ji)其復雜,控(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)措(cuo)施(shi)配置和實施(shi)難(nan)度增大(da)。
需突破大規模新能源高效消納、先進儲能、氫能等關鍵核心技術
作(zuo)為保障國家能(neng)源安全的“國家隊”、黨和(he)人民信賴(lai)依靠(kao)的“大國重(zhong)器”,電(dian)網企(qi)業需(xu)發揮(hui)“引(yin)領者”作(zuo)用,堅持不懈推(tui)進(jin)科技進(jin)步與創新,在新型電(dian)力系統構建的關鍵(jian)核心技術領域取得(de)領先(xian)突(tu)破(po)。
大規(gui)(gui)模新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)高(gao)效消(xiao)納技(ji)(ji)術(shu)是新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統建設的關鍵,需(xu)集中突破新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)場(chang)站(zhan)和(he)集群精確建模技(ji)(ji)術(shu)、新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)監測與預測技(ji)(ji)術(shu)。在新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納方(fang)面,需(xu)突破源(yuan)(yuan)網荷(he)儲協調規(gui)(gui)劃技(ji)(ji)術(shu)、概率化電(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)平衡與全景運行(xing)模擬技(ji)(ji)術(shu),以提升電(dian)(dian)網大規(gui)(gui)模新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)承載能力(li)。
電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)子裝備接(jie)入電(dian)(dian)(dian)網的穩(wen)定運行控(kong)制技(ji)(ji)術。系(xi)統運行控(kong)制技(ji)(ji)術亟需變革創新(xin),需研究和(he)突破高(gao)比例電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)子化設備接(jie)入系(xi)統后的穩(wen)定性難題(ti)、特大(da)型交直流串并聯復(fu)雜大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網數字化調(diao)控(kong)技(ji)(ji)術、新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統安全(quan)穩(wen)定防控(kong)體系(xi)重(zhong)構技(ji)(ji)術,以及針對極端天氣和(he)外(wai)部攻擊的主動防御與(yu)快速(su)恢復(fu)技(ji)(ji)術。
先(xian)進(jin)儲(chu)能(neng)及應(ying)(ying)用技術(shu)。儲(chu)能(neng)是未(wei)來新型(xing)(xing)能(neng)源系(xi)統的重要應(ying)(ying)用技術(shu),其(qi)中,推(tui)進(jin)電(dian)(dian)動汽車規(gui)模(mo)化(hua)應(ying)(ying)用,有利于(yu)節能(neng)減排,實現(xian)用戶(hu)側調節電(dian)(dian)力(li)需求;進(jin)一步推(tui)動抽水蓄(xu)能(neng)電(dian)(dian)站、壓縮空氣(qi)儲(chu)能(neng)、超導(dao)磁(ci)儲(chu)能(neng)系(xi)統等(deng)技術(shu)應(ying)(ying)用,研究(jiu)和應(ying)(ying)用系(xi)統集成與調控技術(shu),將滿(man)足新型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統安(an)全(quan)穩(wen)定運行需求。
氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)相關技術(shu)。氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)是(shi)一(yi)種理想的零(ling)碳(tan)(tan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)。通過(guo)風(feng)光等新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)(qing),將氫(qing)(qing)與燃料電(dian)(dian)(dian)池結合發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian),以(yi)此形成(cheng)氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)產業生(sheng)(sheng)態圈(quan),有助于加快(kuai)構建低碳(tan)(tan)化的氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)供應體系(xi)。同時,發(fa)展電(dian)(dian)(dian)解水(shui)制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)技術(shu),利用(yong)棄風(feng)、棄光、棄水(shui)資源(yuan)制(zhi)(zhi)取(qu)“綠氫(qing)(qing)”,在碳(tan)(tan)中(zhong)和(he)進(jin)程中(zhong)與可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)無法發(fa)揮作用(yong)的領域實現互補。
下一步,南方電(dian)(dian)網公(gong)司(si)將加快推動新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)發(fa)展(zhan),以科技創(chuang)新支撐(cheng)新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)構建,助力實(shi)現(xian)碳(tan)達峰、碳(tan)中和(he)。