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5月20日(ri)，南方電力現(xian)貨(huo)市場發布國內首次(ci)電力現(xian)貨(huo)交易結(jie)算結(jie)果(guo)，包括190臺發電廠機組、123家(jia)售電公司、3家(jia)大用戶(hu)在內的廣東全(quan)部市場主(zhu)體參與本(ben)次(ci)結(jie)算。從最終結(jie)算電價(jia)來看(kan)，用戶(hu)平均節點電價(jia)0.263元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)，夜間低谷時(shi)期平均節點電價(jia)0.082元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)，負(fu)荷高峰時(shi)期平均節點電價(jia)0.362元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)。

市場化再進一步，電力的商品屬性逐步顯現

此次電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力現貨(huo)(huo)(huo)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)交易(yi)由發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)商自(zi)主(zhu)申報擬(ni)出售的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)和(he)(he)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)，由購電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)用(yong)戶自(zi)主(zhu)申報擬(ni)購買電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)，經過交易(yi)平臺競(jing)價(jia)(jia)撮合，并(bing)通過電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網運行安全檢驗，每15分(fen)(fen)鐘形成一(yi)個電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)。長期以(yi)來我(wo)國(guo)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行業受限于“市場(chang)(chang)(chang)煤計劃電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”，盈利能力受煤價(jia)(jia)波動影響較大(da)，并(bing)未體現出公用(yong)事業屬(shu)性。以(yi)美(mei)國(guo)PJM電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力市場(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)運行情況(kuang)為例，其電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)均由市場(chang)(chang)(chang)交易(yi)機制(zhi)決定(ding)，日前(qian)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)自(zi)調度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占比(bi)較高(gao)，占比(bi)25%左右的(de)實時(shi)現貨(huo)(huo)(huo)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)以(yi)5分(fen)(fen)鐘為周(zhou)期競(jing)價(jia)(jia)。美(mei)國(guo)PJM電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力市場(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)運營模式確保了電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力價(jia)(jia)格(ge)是由供(gong)需(xu)關系和(he)(he)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成本(ben)決定(ding)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力期貨(huo)(huo)(huo)及(ji)現貨(huo)(huo)(huo)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)使得電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力的(de)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)發(fa)(fa)現更加(jia)順暢。我(wo)們(men)認為此次我(wo)國(guo)首次電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力現貨(huo)(huo)(huo)交易(yi)結算落(luo)地標志著我(wo)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力市場(chang)(chang)(chang)化(hua)再(zai)進一(yi)步，現貨(huo)(huo)(huo)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)存在(zai)可以(yi)讓(rang)分(fen)(fen)時(shi)、分(fen)(fen)位置的(de)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)信號更充(chong)分(fen)(fen)地反映電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)情況(kuang)，實現電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力資源時(shi)間及(ji)空間的(de)優化(hua)配置。

短期內發電側仍以讓利為主，長期看有望實現優勝劣汰

從發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)側(ce)(ce)價(jia)格曲線來看，此次(ci)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)現貨(huo)市(shi)場(chang)仍以發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)側(ce)(ce)讓(rang)利為(wei)主。由于(yu)(yu)目前電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)現貨(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)占(zhan)(zhan)比較小(xiao)(占(zhan)(zhan)總(zong)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)2%左右)，發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)側(ce)(ce)普(pu)遍基于(yu)(yu)邊際(ji)成本(ben)報(bao)價(jia)，疊(die)加(jia)區域電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供需相(xiang)對(dui)較為(wei)寬松，我們認(ren)為(wei)短期(qi)內現貨(huo)市(shi)場(chang)仍將(jiang)以發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)側(ce)(ce)讓(rang)利為(wei)主。長(chang)期(qi)而言(yan)，隨(sui)著(zhu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)現場(chang)市(shi)場(chang)占(zhan)(zhan)比逐步提(ti)升(sheng)，其有望作為(wei)價(jia)格信號實時反(fan)映(ying)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)市(shi)場(chang)供求關系，改變以往中長(chang)期(qi)交易只考(kao)慮(lv)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)平衡的(de)局(ju)面(mian)。運營管理水平高、能耗低(di)的(de)先進(jin)機組有望搶(qiang)占(zhan)(zhan)更多的(de)市(shi)場(chang)份(fen)額，落后產能則可能以市(shi)場(chang)化的(de)手段(duan)被淘(tao)汰出清。對(dui)于(yu)(yu)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)側(ce)(ce)而言(yan)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)現貨(huo)市(shi)場(chang)有望進(jin)一步提(ti)升(sheng)用戶分(fen)時用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)積極性，從而降(jiang)低(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網的(de)峰谷偏差，實現全(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)最優解。

二線地方電力龍頭

電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)標(biao)的(de)(de)方(fang)(fang)面，我們認為(wei)第(di)二批降電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)政策(ce)的(de)(de)出臺預(yu)示著火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)標(biao)桿電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)調整(zheng)風(feng)險已(yi)經基(ji)本解除(chu)，增(zeng)值稅(shui)率調降的(de)(de)紅利(li)有(you)望(wang)(wang)得以保(bao)留。對于水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)及(ji)核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)而言，其非(fei)市場化(hua)交易電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量的(de)(de)增(zeng)值稅(shui)紅利(li)被用(yong)于降電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)，但不含稅(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)未有(you)不利(li)影響。可再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)消(xiao)納保(bao)障機制的(de)(de)健全建立(li)也有(you)望(wang)(wang)進一步改善水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)及(ji)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)消(xiao)納情況。目(mu)前我們繼(ji)續看(kan)好二線地方(fang)(fang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)龍頭，重點推(tui)薦(jian)長源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)、湖北能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)和(he)福能(neng)(neng)股份。另(ling)外(wai)，長江電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)各項指標(biao)表現良好、具有(you)裝機增(zeng)長與穩定高(gao)分紅屬(shu)性，繼(ji)續重點推(tui)薦(jian)。