我國光伏發電產業從裝備制造到市場規模均處于全球領先水平。
中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發展(zhan)始于(yu)為解決電力供應(ying)的(de)(de)水(shui)電發展(zhan)和解決農村(cun)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供應(ying)的(de)(de)沼氣(qi)、薪炭林和太陽(yang)能(neng)利用(yong)。1973年石(shi)(shi)油危機后(hou),中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)工作者(zhe)開始追隨(sui)世界(jie)的(de)(de)潮流,探(tan)索研(yan)究應(ying)對(dui)后(hou)石(shi)(shi)油時代(dai)的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。2002年約翰內斯堡世界(jie)可(ke)(ke)持(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)發展(zhan)首腦會(hui)議之后(hou),全(quan)球的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)進(jin)入(ru)規(gui)模化(hua)發展(zhan)階段,中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)也開始進(jin)入(ru)規(gui)模化(hua)發展(zhan)起(qi)步階段。隨(sui)著《可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)法(fa)》的(de)(de)出臺,中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)也進(jin)入(ru)了規(gui)模化(hua)發展(zhan)的(de)(de)階段,經過十(shi)(shi)幾(ji)年的(de)(de)積淀,目前進(jin)入(ru)平(ping)價(jia)上網的(de)(de)新階段,有(you)步驟(zou)地取代(dai)化(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),并(bing)開始在推動全(quan)球應(ying)對(dui)氣(qi)候(hou)變化(hua)和可(ke)(ke)持(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)發展(zhan)、實現人(ren)人(ren)享(xiang)有(you)可(ke)(ke)持(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)目標方面引領世界(jie)。但是,可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)取代(dai)化(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)道路仍十(shi)(shi)分漫長,包括中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)在內的(de)(de)全(quan)球可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發展(zhan)任(ren)重而道遠。
一、可再生能源發展一直受黨和政府高度重視
(一(yi))解決(jue)電力供應和農村能源問題,推動可(ke)再生能源發展的(de)起步
自古(gu)開門七件事,柴米油鹽醬(jiang)醋茶,柴是(shi)人民生(sheng)(sheng)活第一位的(de)(de)資源(yuan)(yuan)。能源(yuan)(yuan)問(wen)題一直是(shi)困擾中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)農(nong)村(cun)(cun)生(sheng)(sheng)產和生(sheng)(sheng)活的(de)(de)大問(wen)題,在(zai)農(nong)村(cun)(cun)發展(zhan)可再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)、解決農(nong)村(cun)(cun)生(sheng)(sheng)產生(sheng)(sheng)活能源(yuan)(yuan)短缺問(wen)題,一直是(shi)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)政(zheng)府(fu)的(de)(de)一件大事。新中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)成立初期,農(nong)村(cun)(cun)能源(yuan)(yuan)主要是(shi)小水電(dian)、沼氣和薪炭林等。我國(guo)(guo)政(zheng)府(fu)曾多次組織推廣沼氣技術。沼氣至今在(zai)許多農(nong)村(cun)(cun)地區仍然發揮著重要的(de)(de)作(zuo)用。
上世紀80年代初(chu),國務院成立農村(cun)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)領導(dao)小(xiao)組,統一協調當(dang)時的(de)(de)農業(ye)部、國家計委(wei)、國家科(ke)委(wei)、水利(li)電力部等部門,利(li)用可再(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)解決(jue)農村(cun)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)供應問題(ti),提出(chu)了有(you)(you)效解決(jue)農村(cun)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)問題(ti)的(de)(de)“因地(di)制宜(yi)、多(duo)能(neng)互補、綜合利(li)用、講求效益”的(de)(de)方(fang)針,這一提法至今仍(reng)具有(you)(you)指導(dao)意義。
推動可再生能源(yuan)發展的另(ling)一個巨大動力(li)是(shi)(shi)保障(zhang)電力(li)供應的需要。解(jie)放初期,我國(guo)總(zong)的發電裝機只有(you)180多萬千(qian)(qian)瓦,年發電量只有(you)43億千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi),人(ren)均用電量不到8個千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi),因此加快發展水電、實行“水火(huo)并舉”是(shi)(shi)國(guo)家能源(yuan)建設,特(te)別是(shi)(shi)電力(li)建設的重要任(ren)務之一。
(二)應對石油危機和氣候變化(hua),推(tui)動(dong)可(ke)再生能源發展(zhan)走(zou)向前臺
1973的全(quan)球石油危機(ji),讓人(ren)們意識到化石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)總有一天(tian)是(shi)可以耗盡(jin)的,人(ren)類需要未雨綢繆,早做準備。中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)在追隨世界(jie)的步伐,1980年前后,國(guo)(guo)務(wu)院(yuan)先后批準組建(jian)(jian)了中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)科學院(yuan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)所(suo)(現國(guo)(guo)家發展(zhan)改(gai)革委能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)所(suo))、成都(dou)沼(zhao)氣科研所(suo)、廣州能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)所(suo)、北京能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)所(suo)、甘(gan)肅太(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)所(suo)和遼寧能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)所(suo)等能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)機(ji)構,并(bing)在中(zhong)央政(zheng)府(fu)的綜(zong)合部(bu)(bu)門(men)設(she)(she)立了可再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)處,開始全(quan)面(mian)研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)和部(bu)(bu)署可再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發展(zhan)問題(ti)。“七五”期間,農(nong)村能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)列入國(guo)(guo)家發展(zhan)計劃綱要,確立了100個農(nong)村綜(zong)合能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)規劃建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)試點,并(bing)著(zhu)手組織進行(xing)了基于(yu)小水電的農(nong)村電氣化試點縣(xian)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)。
中國(guo)(guo)政(zheng)府公(gong)布的(de)《中國(guo)(guo)21世紀議程(cheng)》將可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發展內容(rong)納入(ru)其中。“八五”期(qi)間(jian),國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)“973”“863”、科(ke)技攻關計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)亦(yi)包(bao)含可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)項(xiang)目,可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)單獨編(bian)制(zhi)計劃(hua)(hua)(hua),國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)開(kai)始有計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)地實施可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)發。1997年,國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)三部委首次頒布國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發展計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)。國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)計委啟動(dong)(dong)“乘風計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)”和(he)(he)“光(guang)(guang)明工(gong)程(cheng)”,國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)經貿委啟動(dong)(dong)“雙加工(gong)程(cheng)”,分別支持(chi)風電和(he)(he)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)示范(fan)項(xiang)目,國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)電力(li)總公(gong)司也啟動(dong)(dong)相關項(xiang)目,利用光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發電解決西藏無電縣城的(de)供電問題,通過項(xiang)目計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)支持(chi)了一批風電和(he)(he)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發電企業。
2002年,中國(guo)政府批(pi)準(zhun)了(le)《京(jing)都(dou)議定書》,承諾(nuo)通過提高(gao)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)效率、發展可(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、植樹造(zao)林(lin)等措(cuo)施,減緩和適應氣候(hou)變化(hua)。“九五”期間,國(guo)家(jia)(jia)開(kai)始(shi)有計劃地(di)發展可(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan),國(guo)家(jia)(jia)計委(現國(guo)家(jia)(jia)發展改革(ge)委)啟動了(le)送(song)電(dian)(dian)到(dao)鄉工程,利用可(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)解決(jue)無(wu)電(dian)(dian)地(di)區(qu)的(de)供(gong)電(dian)(dian)問(wen)題,國(guo)家(jia)(jia)科技部(bu)設立了(le)后續能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)專項(xiang)(xiang),對風電(dian)(dian)、太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)和生物質能(neng)(neng)(neng)以及氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)進行研究,聯合國(guo)家(jia)(jia)計委設立專項(xiang)(xiang),支持可(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)關鍵設備(bei)的(de)產業化(hua)。
(三)制(zhi)定《可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源法》,推(tui)動非水可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源進入(ru)規模(mo)化發(fa)展新階段
在(zai)2004年(nian)的(de)(de)波恩國(guo)際可再生(sheng)能(neng)源大(da)會(hui)上(shang),中(zhong)國(guo)代表團(tuan)向世界承諾將制定法(fa)律和發展規劃,支持可再生(sheng)能(neng)源的(de)(de)規模化發展。2005年(nian)2月(yue)頒布、2006年(nian)1月(yue)實施的(de)(de)《可再生(sheng)能(neng)源法(fa)》,推動了(le)中(zhong)國(guo)非水(shui)可再生(sheng)能(neng)源的(de)(de)快速(su)發展。到2018年(nian)底,非水(shui)可再生(sheng)能(neng)源發電(dian)裝機容量已(yi)經超過水(shui)電(dian),成(cheng)為我國(guo)第二大(da)發電(dian)電(dian)源。
自2006年(nian)(nian)《可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)法》實施以(yi)來,我國(guo)(guo)(guo)進(jin)入了可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)快速發(fa)(fa)(fa)展時(shi)期,市場規模不斷(duan)壯大。可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)利用(yong)取得(de)明顯成效,水電(dian)、風電(dian)、光伏發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)等能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種類累計(ji)裝機(ji)規模均居世(shi)界首位。可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結(jie)構中(zhong)占(zhan)比(bi)不斷(duan)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升,能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結(jie)構朝著清潔(jie)(jie)化、優質化方向發(fa)(fa)(fa)展,為(wei)我國(guo)(guo)(guo)經濟快速發(fa)(fa)(fa)展提(ti)(ti)(ti)供了重要保障。截至2018年(nian)(nian)底,全國(guo)(guo)(guo)主要可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)72896萬(wan)千(qian)瓦,占(zhan)全部(bu)電(dian)力裝機(ji)的38.4%,相(xiang)比(bi)2005年(nian)(nian)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高了15.1個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian),其中(zhong)非水可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝機(ji)占(zhan)比(bi)由(you)(you)2005年(nian)(nian)的0.6%提(ti)(ti)(ti)高到(dao)2018年(nian)(nian)的19.8%。2018年(nian)(nian),全部(bu)商品化可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)利用(yong)折合(he)5.8億(yi)噸標準(zhun)煤,占(zhan)全國(guo)(guo)(guo)一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費量(liang)的12.5%,相(xiang)比(bi)2005年(nian)(nian)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高約6個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。其中(zhong)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)量(liang)18670億(yi)千(qian)瓦時(shi),占(zhan)全部(bu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)量(liang)的26.7%,相(xiang)比(bi)2005年(nian)(nian)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高10.6個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian),非水可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)量(liang)占(zhan)比(bi)由(you)(you)2005年(nian)(nian)的0.1%提(ti)(ti)(ti)高到(dao)2018年(nian)(nian)的9.1%。可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)從《可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)法》實施初期的“可(ke)(ke)有可(ke)(ke)無(wu)”到(dao)今天的“舉足輕重”,已經成為(wei)我國(guo)(guo)(guo)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),特別是清潔(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供應的重要組成部(bu)分(fen)。
(四)提出打贏藍天(tian)保(bao)衛(wei)戰和二(er)氧化(hua)碳達峰的(de)目標,為可再生(sheng)能源發(fa)展提出新(xin)任務
黨(dang)的十八(ba)大以后,生(sheng)態文(wen)明(ming)建設成(cheng)為(wei)(wei)我國(guo)“五位一(yi)(yi)體”發展(zhan)戰(zhan)略(lve)的重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)內(nei)容之一(yi)(yi),2013年(nian)(nian)國(guo)務院(yuan)頒布(bu)“大氣十條”,把(ba)(ba)調整(zheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結構(gou)、減少煤炭消(xiao)費(fei)和(he)增加清(qing)(qing)潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供(gong)應作為(wei)(wei)控(kong)制大氣污染(ran)的重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)措施(shi)。2015年(nian)(nian)中國(guo)與世界各國(guo)一(yi)(yi)起促成(cheng)了(le)《巴(ba)黎協定》的達(da)成(cheng)和(he)生(sheng)效,并(bing)向全球承諾(nuo),2030年(nian)(nian)單位國(guo)內(nei)生(sheng)產總(zong)值(zhi)二氧化碳排放比2005年(nian)(nian)下降60%~65%、非化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)占一(yi)(yi)次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)比重(zhong)(zhong)達(da)到(dao)20%左右(you)、森林蓄積(ji)量比2005年(nian)(nian)增加45億(yi)立方米、二氧化碳排放2030年(nian)(nian)左右(you)達(da)到(dao)峰(feng)值(zhi)并(bing)爭(zheng)(zheng)取盡(jin)早達(da)峰(feng)。這些都(dou)(dou)(dou)為(wei)(wei)可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的發展(zhan)提(ti)出了(le)新(xin)的目(mu)標和(he)任務。為(wei)(wei)此各級政府(fu)和(he)企業都(dou)(dou)(dou)在(zai)進(jin)行積(ji)極的準備。國(guo)家發展(zhan)改革(ge)委和(he)國(guo)家能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)局制定的《能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)產和(he)消(xiao)費(fei)革(ge)命戰(zhan)略(lve)(2016-2030)》提(ti)出,“展(zhan)望(wang)2050年(nian)(nian),能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)總(zong)量基本穩定,非化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)占比超過一(yi)(yi)半(ban)”。山西(xi)爭(zheng)(zheng)做能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)革(ge)命的排頭兵,浙(zhe)江、青(qing)海爭(zheng)(zheng)做清(qing)(qing)潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)示(shi)范省,全國(guo)近100座城(cheng)市(shi)制定的二氧化碳2025年(nian)(nian)前達(da)峰(feng)的計(ji)劃(hua),都(dou)(dou)(dou)把(ba)(ba)開發利用可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)作為(wei)(wei)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)的措施(shi)之一(yi)(yi)。國(guo)家電網在(zai)青(qing)海連(lian)續三年(nian)(nian)進(jin)行了(le)100%可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供(gong)電的實驗,為(wei)(wei)100%可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供(gong)電進(jin)行技(ji)術儲(chu)備。
二、水電仍是我國可再生能源發展的基石
水能(neng)(neng)是清潔、綠色能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan),是我國(guo)重(zhong)要的(de)(de)可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)。我國(guo)水能(neng)(neng)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)技(ji)術可(ke)開發(fa)(fa)裝機(ji)容量(liang)達(da)6.61億千瓦,是世界水能(neng)(neng)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)最豐(feng)富的(de)(de)國(guo)家。伴隨(sui)著(zhu)水能(neng)(neng)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)開發(fa)(fa)利(li)用(yong),我國(guo)水能(neng)(neng)產(chan)業蓬勃發(fa)(fa)展,水電技(ji)術日益(yi)(yi)成熟(shu),形成了涵蓋(gai)勘察(cha)、規劃、設計、施(shi)工、制造、輸送、運營(ying)等(deng)在內的(de)(de)全產(chan)業鏈。水電具(ju)有經濟開發(fa)(fa)價值,開發(fa)(fa)技(ji)術成熟(shu),調度運行靈活,還兼有電量(liang)效(xiao)益(yi)(yi)和容量(liang)效(xiao)益(yi)(yi)、儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)作用(yong)、水資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)綜合(he)利(li)用(yong)功能(neng)(neng)等(deng),在促進地(di)方(fang)經濟社會發(fa)(fa)展和移民脫貧致富、優化能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)結構、保證電網安(an)全、節(jie)能(neng)(neng)減排及環境(jing)保護(hu)等(deng)方(fang)面發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)著(zhu)重(zhong)要的(de)(de)作用(yong),社會、經濟、環境(jing)等(deng)綜合(he)效(xiao)益(yi)(yi)顯著(zhu)。回顧我國(guo)水電事業的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展,大體上經歷(li)了兩個階段:
(一)改革開放前的艱苦起步階段(duan)
新(xin)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)成(cheng)立伊始,百(bai)(bai)廢待興。對于(yu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)展,黨和政府領導全國(guo)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)作者自力(li)更生、艱苦(ku)奮斗,開(kai)(kai)(kai)啟了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)創業新(xin)征程。開(kai)(kai)(kai)展了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)龍溪河(he)(he)(he)、古(gu)田溪、永定河(he)(he)(he)、以禮河(he)(he)(he)等中(zhong)(zhong)小河(he)(he)(he)流的(de)(de)開(kai)(kai)(kai)發(fa)規劃;設(she)計建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)獅(shi)子(zi)灘、古(gu)田一(yi)級(ji)、黃(huang)壇口、上猶江、流溪河(he)(he)(he)、官廳(ting)、大伙(huo)房(fang)、佛子(zi)嶺(ling)、梅山、響洪甸(dian)等一(yi)批(pi)中(zhong)(zhong)型水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)以及新(xin)疆烏拉泊、西藏拉薩和海(hai)南(nan)東(dong)方等小型水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)。1957年(nian)4月開(kai)(kai)(kai)工(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)新(xin)安江水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan),是中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)自行設(she)計、自制設(she)備、自主建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)的(de)(de)第一(yi)座(zuo)大型水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan),也是我國(guo)第一(yi)座(zuo)百(bai)(bai)米高的(de)(de)混凝(ning)土(tu)重(zhong)(zhong)力(li)壩。1958年(nian)9月,中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)首座(zuo)百(bai)(bai)萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)級(ji)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)——劉家峽(xia)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)在(zai)黃(huang)河(he)(he)(he)上游(you)開(kai)(kai)(kai)工(gong)(gong)建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she),同(tong)時,下游(you)的(de)(de)鹽鍋峽(xia)、八盤峽(xia)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)也相繼開(kai)(kai)(kai)工(gong)(gong)興建(jian)(jian)(jian)。1975年(nian),總裝機容量122.5萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)的(de)(de)劉家峽(xia)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)建(jian)(jian)(jian)成(cheng),成(cheng)為中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)史上的(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)要里程碑。此后中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)又陸(lu)續建(jian)(jian)(jian)成(cheng)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)一(yi)批(pi)百(bai)(bai)萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)級(ji)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan),并進行了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)大規模的(de)(de)小水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)(kai)發(fa)利用。截(jie)至(zhi)1979年(nian),我國(guo)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容量達到1911萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa),年(nian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量500億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時,在(zai)全國(guo)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量中(zhong)(zhong)占比超(chao)過18%,為這一(yi)時期(qi)的(de)(de)國(guo)家經濟(ji)發(fa)展作出了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)應有的(de)(de)貢獻(xian)。
(二)改革(ge)開(kai)放后的快速發(fa)展階段
十一屆三中(zhong)(zhong)全會(hui)以(yi)(yi)后(hou)(hou),國家確立了(le)(le)(le)以(yi)(yi)經濟(ji)(ji)建(jian)設(she)(she)為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)心的發(fa)展方針,全面實(shi)行改(gai)革開(kai)(kai)放政策。在經濟(ji)(ji)體(ti)制、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力體(ti)制改(gai)革的大(da)(da)背(bei)景下(xia),水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)也開(kai)(kai)展了(le)(le)(le)建(jian)設(she)(she)體(ti)制改(gai)革的探索。水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)建(jian)設(she)(she)經歷了(le)(le)(le)工(gong)程概(gai)算總(zong)承包責任制、項目業主責任制和(he)項目法人責任制三個階段(duan)。體(ti)制改(gai)革解(jie)放了(le)(le)(le)生產力,對外開(kai)(kai)放注入了(le)(le)(le)新活力。二(er)者相互促(cu)進,極大(da)(da)地提高了(le)(le)(le)生產效(xiao)率(lv)。2000年以(yi)(yi)后(hou)(hou),隨(sui)著我(wo)國改(gai)革開(kai)(kai)放的進一步擴(kuo)大(da)(da),我(wo)國水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)投(tou)資(zi)領域引(yin)入競爭機制,投(tou)資(zi)主體(ti)多元化(hua),梯級開(kai)(kai)發(fa)流域化(hua)。現代(dai)企業管理的制度創新,加快了(le)(le)(le)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)建(jian)設(she)(she)的步伐。特別是國家實(shi)施西(xi)(xi)部(bu)大(da)(da)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)戰(zhan)略(lve)和(he)西(xi)(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東送(song),為(wei)西(xi)(xi)部(bu)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)帶來了(le)(le)(le)難得的機遇。雅礱江(jiang)、大(da)(da)渡河(he)、瀾滄江(jiang)、金沙江(jiang)、烏江(jiang)等水(shui)(shui)能富礦基地按照流域規(gui)劃有序開(kai)(kai)發(fa),龍灘、小灣、溪洛渡、向家壩、錦屏(ping)一二(er)級、瀑布溝、拉西(xi)(xi)瓦等一批水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)在國家西(xi)(xi)部(bu)大(da)(da)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)和(he)“西(xi)(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東送(song)”戰(zhan)略(lve)實(shi)施之(zhi)后(hou)(hou)開(kai)(kai)工(gong)并(bing)相繼(ji)投(tou)產。截至2018年底(di),我(wo)國水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)總(zong)裝機容量35226萬千瓦,年發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量12342億千瓦時,穩居世界(jie)第(di)一。水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容量和(he)年發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量約(yue)占全國總(zong)量的近五(wu)分之(zhi)一。水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)僅次于火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),就發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量而言,穩居我(wo)國第(di)二(er)大(da)(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源的位置,為(wei)國家經濟(ji)(ji)建(jian)設(she)(she)和(he)人民生活提供(gong)了(le)(le)(le)清潔低碳的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)應。
三、非水可再生能源成為我國清潔能源供應的新生力量
自(zi)2006年(nian)《可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)法》實(shi)(shi)施以來,我國(guo)(guo)進入了可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)快(kuai)速發(fa)展時期,市場規(gui)模(mo)不斷(duan)壯大。可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)發(fa)利(li)用取得明顯成效,水(shui)電(dian)、風(feng)電(dian)、光伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)等能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種類累計裝(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模(mo)均居世界首位。可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結構(gou)中占比(bi)不斷(duan)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng),能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結構(gou)朝著清潔(jie)化、優質化方向發(fa)展,為(wei)我國(guo)(guo)經濟快(kuai)速發(fa)展提(ti)(ti)供了重要保障。截至2018年(nian)底(di),我國(guo)(guo)非(fei)(fei)水(shui)可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)占比(bi)由2005年(nian)的(de)(de)0.6%提(ti)(ti)高(gao)到(dao)2018年(nian)的(de)(de)19.8%,非(fei)(fei)水(shui)可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)占比(bi)由2005年(nian)的(de)(de)0.1%提(ti)(ti)高(gao)到(dao)2018年(nian)的(de)(de)9.1%。非(fei)(fei)水(shui)可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)從(cong)《可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)法》實(shi)(shi)施初期的(de)(de)“可(ke)(ke)(ke)有可(ke)(ke)(ke)無”到(dao)今天的(de)(de)“舉足輕重”,已經成為(wei)我國(guo)(guo)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),特(te)別是清潔(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供應的(de)(de)中堅力(li)量(liang)。
(一)風(feng)電市場(chang)快(kuai)速發展(zhan)
2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)底,除臺灣地區(qu)(qu)外,全(quan)(quan)國(guo)已建(jian)成61個(ge)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)場,累計風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)1864臺,裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規模達(da)到(dao)126.6萬千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa),占全(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)的0.24%。已建(jian)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目均為(wei)陸上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目,分(fen)布在15個(ge)省(區(qu)(qu)、市、特(te)別行政(zheng)區(qu)(qu)),其中(zhong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)最(zui)大的項目為(wei)寧夏青銅(tong)峽邵崗(gang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)場,裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)為(wei)11.2萬千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)。2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)總發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)為(wei)16億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時,占全(quan)(quan)國(guo)總發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的0.06%。自(zi)2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)《可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)法》實施以來(lai),我(wo)國(guo)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)與年(nian)(nian)(nian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)快速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)。截至2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)底,全(quan)(quan)國(guo)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)累計并(bing)網容(rong)量(liang)達(da)1.84億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa),占全(quan)(quan)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)的9.7%,連續九年(nian)(nian)(nian)位居全(quan)(quan)球第一。其中(zhong),海上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)累計并(bing)網容(rong)量(liang)達(da)到(dao)363萬千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa),呈現(xian)加速(su)發(fa)(fa)展態勢。2018年(nian)(nian)(nian),全(quan)(quan)國(guo)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)總發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)3660億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時,較2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)了近230倍,占全(quan)(quan)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)總發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的比重提高到(dao)5.2%,增(zeng)長(chang)了近85倍。
(二(er))光伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)發(fa)展引領全球(qiu)
2005年(nian)(nian)以前(qian),我(wo)國(guo)(guo)光伏(fu)(fu)(fu)行(xing)業(ye)處于(yu)成長(chang)起(qi)步階段,技術和(he)(he)市場均在(zai)國(guo)(guo)外。到2005年(nian)(nian)底,我(wo)國(guo)(guo)光伏(fu)(fu)(fu)發電(dian)裝(zhuang)機只有7萬千(qian)(qian)瓦,當年(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)光伏(fu)(fu)(fu)發電(dian)量(liang)約(yue)7300萬千(qian)(qian)瓦時,占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)部(bu)(bu)發電(dian)量(liang)的(de)(de)0.03‰,在(zai)能源總(zong)量(liang)中的(de)(de)比重為0.02‰。自(zi)2006年(nian)(nian)《可(ke)再生能源法(fa)》實施(shi)以來,我(wo)國(guo)(guo)光伏(fu)(fu)(fu)行(xing)業(ye)經歷了產業(ye)化(hua)發展(zhan)階段,目前(qian)已進入(ru)規(gui)模(mo)化(hua)發展(zhan)階段,通過國(guo)(guo)際合(he)作和(he)(he)技術創新,取(qu)得了舉世矚(zhu)目的(de)(de)成就。自(zi)2015年(nian)(nian)起(qi),我(wo)國(guo)(guo)光伏(fu)(fu)(fu)年(nian)(nian)新增和(he)(he)累計裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)連續位居世界首位。截至2018年(nian)(nian),全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)光伏(fu)(fu)(fu)發電(dian)累計裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)達到1.74億千(qian)(qian)瓦,約(yue)占(zhan)電(dian)源總(zong)裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)的(de)(de)9%,較(jiao)2005年(nian)(nian)提高(gao)了約(yue)2500倍;2018年(nian)(nian),全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)光伏(fu)(fu)(fu)發電(dian)量(liang)達到1775億千(qian)(qian)瓦時,較(jiao)2005年(nian)(nian)提高(gao)了約(yue)2430倍,占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)部(bu)(bu)電(dian)源總(zong)發電(dian)量(liang)的(de)(de)2.5%,是(shi)2005年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)800多倍。我(wo)國(guo)(guo)光伏(fu)(fu)(fu)發電(dian)產業(ye)從裝(zhuang)備(bei)制(zhi)造到市場規(gui)模(mo)均處于(yu)全(quan)(quan)球領先(xian)水平。
(三)其他可(ke)再生能(neng)源亦有長足的進步
首先是生(sheng)(sheng)物質(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)展成(cheng)績斐然。我(wo)國生(sheng)(sheng)物質(zhi)(zhi)資源豐富(fu),理論資源總(zong)量每年(nian)約4.6億噸標準煤(mei)。截至2018年(nian),生(sheng)(sheng)物質(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)利用(yong)(yong)量約5210萬(wan)噸標準煤(mei),其(qi)中,生(sheng)(sheng)物質(zhi)(zhi)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)約2680萬(wan)噸標準煤(mei),生(sheng)(sheng)物質(zhi)(zhi)固體燃料(liao)750萬(wan)噸標準煤(mei)、生(sheng)(sheng)物液體燃料(liao)460萬(wan)噸標準煤(mei),沼氣(qi)和(he)(he)生(sheng)(sheng)物天然氣(qi)1320萬(wan)噸標準煤(mei)。地(di)(di)熱(re)和(he)(he)海洋(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)其(qi)他技術(shu)(shu)也(ye)有(you)長足的進步(bu)。淺(qian)層地(di)(di)熱(re)利用(yong)(yong)技術(shu)(shu)日(ri)趨完善(shan),中深層地(di)(di)熱(re)利用(yong)(yong)不(bu)(bu)斷(duan)發(fa)(fa)展,干熱(re)巖地(di)(di)熱(re)利用(yong)(yong)技術(shu)(shu)也(ye)進入實驗(yan)階段。海洋(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)領(ling)域的潮汐能(neng)(neng)(neng)、洋(yang)流(liu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)以及波浪能(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)利用(yong)(yong)技術(shu)(shu)也(ye)有(you)不(bu)(bu)同程(cheng)度的進展。特別是在舟山建成(cheng)的我(wo)國第一座洋(yang)流(liu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)站,填補了(le)我(wo)國洋(yang)流(liu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)的空白。
(四(si))可再生能源(yuan)成為(wei)全球能源(yuan)轉型和氣候治理的靚(jing)麗名片
截至2018年(nian)(nian),我(wo)國非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)占(zhan)一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費比(bi)(bi)(bi)重達14.2%,其(qi)中可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)占(zhan)一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費比(bi)(bi)(bi)重達12.5%,占(zhan)非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重達88%。從2005年(nian)(nian)至2018年(nian)(nian),我(wo)國煤炭(tan)消費占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)由67%降低(di)到(dao)59%,下(xia)(xia)(xia)降了(le)8個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian),而可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提升了(le)6個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian),填補了(le)煤炭(tan)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)75%。在發電量(liang)方面(mian),2018年(nian)(nian)我(wo)國煤電占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)65%,較(jiao)2005年(nian)(nian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降了(le)13個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian),可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電力由16.1%上升到(dao)26.7%,提高了(le)10.6個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian)。發展可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)成(cheng)為落實能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)安全(quan)新戰(zhan)略、構建清(qing)潔低(di)碳安全(quan)高效(xiao)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)體系的(de)(de)(de)重要內容(rong),成(cheng)為推動(dong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉型(xing)、實現經(jing)濟高質(zhi)量(liang)發展的(de)(de)(de)重要貢獻力量(liang),同(tong)時也是我(wo)國作為應對氣候變化國際合作的(de)(de)(de)參與者、貢獻者、引領者的(de)(de)(de)靚麗名片(pian)。
四、可再生能源發展仍任重道遠
黨(dang)的(de)(de)十九大明確提(ti)出“推進(jin)能(neng)源生產和(he)消費革命,構建清潔低碳、安(an)全(quan)高效(xiao)的(de)(de)能(neng)源體系”,同(tong)時(shi)(shi)提(ti)出“建立健全(quan)綠(lv)色低碳循環發展的(de)(de)經濟體系”“倡導(dao)簡約(yue)適(shi)度、綠(lv)色低碳的(de)(de)生活(huo)方式”,到2035年(nian)“基本(ben)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)社會(hui)主義現(xian)(xian)代(dai)(dai)化”“生態(tai)環境根本(ben)好轉,美麗(li)中國(guo)目標基本(ben)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)”。到2050年(nian)“把(ba)我國(guo)建成富強民主文(wen)(wen)(wen)明和(he)諧美麗(li)的(de)(de)社會(hui)主義現(xian)(xian)代(dai)(dai)化強國(guo)。到那時(shi)(shi),我國(guo)物質文(wen)(wen)(wen)明、政治(zhi)文(wen)(wen)(wen)明、精神文(wen)(wen)(wen)明、社會(hui)文(wen)(wen)(wen)明、生態(tai)文(wen)(wen)(wen)明將(jiang)(jiang)全(quan)面提(ti)升,實(shi)現(xian)(xian)國(guo)家治(zhi)理體系和(he)治(zhi)理能(neng)力現(xian)(xian)代(dai)(dai)化,成為綜合(he)國(guo)力和(he)國(guo)際影響力領先的(de)(de)國(guo)家,全(quan)體人民共(gong)同(tong)富裕基本(ben)實(shi)現(xian)(xian),我國(guo)人民將(jiang)(jiang)享(xiang)有更(geng)加幸福安(an)康的(de)(de)生活(huo),中華民族將(jiang)(jiang)以(yi)更(geng)加昂(ang)揚(yang)的(de)(de)姿態(tai)屹立于世界民族之(zhi)林”。
我(wo)國(guo)發(fa)(fa)展階段(duan)和發(fa)(fa)展水平(ping)的改變,對我(wo)國(guo)能源體系提出明確要求。一是2035年(nian)(nian)生(sheng)態(tai)環境(jing)根本好(hao)轉,其中一個指標是PM2.5必(bi)須(xu)明顯低(di)于35ppm,2050年(nian)(nian)PM2.5要向領先的發(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)家看齊,即達(da)到(dao)10ppm左右(you)。二是達(da)到(dao)與(yu)發(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)家地位相適應的溫室(shi)氣(qi)體排放水平(ping),引領全球(qiu)氣(qi)候(hou)治理和生(sheng)態(tai)文明建設。
按(an)照這些要求(qiu),到(dao)2035年(nian)左右(you)非化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)占比要低(di)于25%,2050年(nian)至少(shao)不(bu)低(di)于50%。按(an)照可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)占其(qi)中(zhong)的(de)(de)85%計算,2035和(he)2050年(nian),可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)占比需(xu)(xu)要從目前的(de)(de)12%左右(you)提高到(dao)17%和(he)40%以上(shang),平均每年(nian)需(xu)(xu)要增(zeng)加至少(shao)一個百(bai)分點。發展可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)可(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)步(bu)驟是:首先是從現(xian)在(zai)開始到(dao)2035年(nian),通(tong)過大氣質量(liang)和(he)溫室氣體(ti)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)系(xi)統控制,對(dui)我(wo)(wo)國能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)質量(liang)提出明(ming)確要求(qiu),即新增(zeng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)基本(ben)(ben)上(shang)由(you)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)來(lai)滿足,并在(zai)部分地(di)區和(he)行業開始存(cun)量(liang)替(ti)代(dai),推動我(wo)(wo)國溫室氣體(ti)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)早日(ri)達峰。二是從2035年(nian)我(wo)(wo)國初步(bu)實現(xian)現(xian)代(dai)化之日(ri)開始,在(zai)新增(zeng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)基本(ben)(ben)上(shang)由(you)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)滿足的(de)(de)同時(shi),開始存(cun)量(liang)的(de)(de)實質性替(ti)代(dai),滿足我(wo)(wo)國2050年(nian)以后溫室氣體(ti)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)大幅度下降(jiang)的(de)(de)客觀要求(qiu)。三是從2050年(nian)開始我(wo)(wo)國與世(shi)界各國一道(乃至引領全球)完成由(you)化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)向非化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)過渡,迎接清潔低(di)碳和(he)人人可(ke)(ke)享有的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)持續能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)時(shi)代(dai)的(de)(de)來(lai)臨。
總(zong)之,黨的(de)(de)(de)(de)十(shi)九大提出(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)“構(gou)建清潔低碳(tan)、安全(quan)高效的(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)體(ti)系”,以及(ji)2035年、2050年發展目(mu)標都(dou)對能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)高質(zhi)量發展轉型(xing)提出(chu)了新(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)要求,國際(ji)形勢變化賦予了國家能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)安全(quan)新(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)涵,期待可再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)作出(chu)更大的(de)(de)(de)(de)貢獻。
同時(shi),經過(guo)多(duo)(duo)年的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan),可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)開始具備平價(jia)上(shang)網的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)術(shu)條件和(he)(he)產業基礎(chu)。眾多(duo)(duo)研究機構(gou)認為,通過(guo)一段(duan)時(shi)間的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan),非(fei)水(shui)可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)有可(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)成為最具競爭(zheng)力的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)電(dian)電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan),為能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉型作出更大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貢獻。關鍵問題是(shi)要認識可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)新形勢和(he)(he)新局面,解決可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)戰略(lve)定(ding)位問題,以及(ji)可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)高比例融入(ru)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)體系所需的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)新的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)機制和(he)(he)制度安排問題,在我國(guo)乃(nai)至全球的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系統從資源(yuan)(yuan)依(yi)賴走向(xiang)技(ji)術(shu)依(yi)賴、從化石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)過(guo)渡到(dao)非(fei)化石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程中,讓可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)揮更大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)作用(yong)。
(作者(zhe)系國家氣候戰略(lve)中心原主(zhu)任(ren)、中國能源研究會常務理事(shi))