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9月28日，由國(guo)家(jia)太(tai)(tai)陽能光(guang)熱(re)(re)產業(ye)技(ji)術(shu)創新(xin)(xin)戰略聯(lian)盟(meng)、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)工程熱(re)(re)物理學會(hui)(hui)、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)可再生能源(yuan)學會(hui)(hui)、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)工程學會(hui)(hui)、全國(guo)太(tai)(tai)陽能光(guang)熱(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)標準化技(ji)術(shu)委(wei)員(yuan)會(hui)(hui)共同(tong)主(zhu)(zhu)辦，浙江(jiang)(jiang)省(sheng)湖州(zhou)市吳興區人(ren)民政(zheng)府、浙江(jiang)(jiang)高(gao)晟光(guang)熱(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)術(shu)研(yan)(yan)究院有限公(gong)司(si)、中(zhong)(zhong)關(guan)村新(xin)(xin)源(yuan)太(tai)(tai)陽能熱(re)(re)利用技(ji)術(shu)服務中(zhong)(zhong)心、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)大(da)唐(tang)集團新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)科學技(ji)術(shu)研(yan)(yan)究院有限公(gong)司(si)和中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)科學院電(dian)(dian)(dian)工研(yan)(yan)究所共同(tong)承(cheng)辦的“2021中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)太(tai)(tai)陽能熱(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)大(da)會(hui)(hui)”在浙江(jiang)(jiang)省(sheng)湖州(zhou)市皇冠假日酒店落幕。大(da)會(hui)(hui)上(shang)，國(guo)家(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網有限公(gong)司(si)西北分部(bu)技(ji)術(shu)中(zhong)(zhong)心主(zhu)(zhu)任孫驍強作了“以新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)為主(zhu)(zhu)體的新(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統中(zhong)(zhong)光(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站完全替代火電(dian)(dian)(dian)規劃研(yan)(yan)究”的報(bao)告，經本人(ren)同(tong)意(yi)，特將部(bu)分內容摘(zhai)錄如下，以供參考。

以新能源為主體(ti)的新型(xing)電(dian)力系統中光熱電(dian)站完全替代(dai)火電(dian)規劃研究

孫驍強1，李慶(qing)海1，李富(fu)春2，楊攀(pan)峰2，楊楠1，汪瑩1，張小奇1，霍(huo)超1，傅旭2

1國家電網有限公司(si)西北分部(bu)

2中國電力工(gong)程顧問(wen)集團西北電力設計院有限公司(si)

1引言

隨著國(guo)家(jia)雙碳(tan)戰略(lve)目標的實(shi)施，我國(guo)新(xin)能(neng)源開發(fa)規模(mo)繼(ji)續(xu)擴(kuo)大(da)，火(huo)電(dian)建設空間將進(jin)一步(bu)壓縮(suo)，而(er)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)負荷仍在穩步(bu)增長(chang)，風電(dian)及光伏(fu)的波動性(xing)使(shi)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)難以實(shi)現全時段電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量平(ping)衡(heng)。可再生能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)的季節性(xing)不平(ping)衡(heng)是電(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)中(zhong)新(xin)能(neng)源占(zhan)比升高到一定階段必然面臨(lin)的問(wen)題(ti)。

以新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)為主的(de)新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統，需要尋求能(neng)(neng)夠替(ti)(ti)代火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)穩(wen)定電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)，西北地(di)區光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)本身具有一(yi)定替(ti)(ti)代火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)力(li)，但受太陽能(neng)(neng)直輻射影(ying)響，在極端(duan)天(tian)氣無法獲得足夠的(de)熱(re)能(neng)(neng)，連續極端(duan)天(tian)氣不平衡(heng)問題(ti)更加突出，無法全(quan)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)參加電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)平衡(heng)，替(ti)(ti)代火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)力(li)大打折扣，通過增加應急燃(ran)氣鍋(guo)爐備(bei)用(yong)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)可(ke)在極端(duan)天(tian)氣補充熱(re)能(neng)(neng)，甚至可(ke)以應對系(xi)統電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)供(gong)應的(de)季節性不平衡(heng)，做(zuo)到全(quan)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)全(quan)時段全(quan)功(gong)能(neng)(neng)替(ti)(ti)代火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)，保障(zhang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)供(gong)應，同時保證發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)中絕大部(bu)分(fen)仍是可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)，實(shi)現以少量(liang)(liang)(liang)低碳(tan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)帶(dai)動(dong)大規模可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)發(fa)，在新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統中具有重要示范意義(yi)。

2新型電力系統電力保障形勢

傳統(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系統(tong)(tong)以火電(dian)(dian)、水(shui)電(dian)(dian)等(deng)常(chang)規(gui)(gui)電(dian)(dian)源為主，調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)(feng)需(xu)(xu)求主要是負荷波動引起(qi)，隨(sui)著新(xin)能(neng)源滲透率的(de)不(bu)斷提高，調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)(feng)需(xu)(xu)求也在(zai)發(fa)生變化，高比例新(xin)能(neng)源系統(tong)(tong)調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)(feng)需(xu)(xu)求主要是為了滿足新(xin)能(neng)源接納需(xu)(xu)求。與此同時(shi)，在(zai)國(guo)家雙碳戰略的(de)推進過(guo)程中，火電(dian)(dian)發(fa)展(zhan)空間(jian)大大壓縮，導(dao)致為滿足系統(tong)(tong)最大電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)需(xu)(xu)求的(de)常(chang)規(gui)(gui)電(dian)(dian)源電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供應也日趨(qu)緊(jin)張。可以預見，以新(xin)能(neng)源為主體的(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系統(tong)(tong)同時(shi)面(mian)臨(lin)向(xiang)(xiang)上調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)(feng)和向(xiang)(xiang)下調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)(feng)兩個方面(mian)的(de)需(xu)(xu)求，尤其是向(xiang)(xiang)上調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)(feng)關系到電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)保障問題(ti)顯得尤為重要。

受資(zi)源(yuan)約束(shu)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)（限能電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)）向上(shang)調峰能力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)發揮除了跟(gen)機組(zu)自身調峰能力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)有關外，還與資(zi)源(yuan)決(jue)定的(de)(de)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)密切(qie)相關，不同電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)的(de)(de)向上(shang)調峰能力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)存在(zai)(zai)較大(da)差異。如(ru)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)最(zui)大(da)出力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)理(li)論可以達到預想出力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)，但(dan)實際往(wang)往(wang)受來水(shui)約束(shu)不能達到上(shang)述最(zui)大(da)值(zhi)，比如(ru)青海水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)冬季受來水(shui)影響最(zui)大(da)出力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)僅為(wei)其裝機的(de)(de)50%-70%；儲能電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)在(zai)(zai)系(xi)統電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)不足時(shi)也難以發揮作用；光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)類似(si)，在(zai)(zai)太陽(yang)能資(zi)源(yuan)不好時(shi)，最(zui)大(da)出力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)也會受限。因(yin)此，隨(sui)著新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統中(zhong)限能電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)逐(zhu)步增加，其參(can)加電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)平衡能力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)不足，再加上(shang)季節(jie)性資(zi)源(yuan)不平衡，以新能源(yuan)為(wei)主體(ti)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統將(jiang)面臨電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)保障缺乏穩定電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)支撐的(de)(de)嚴峻形勢。

由于(yu)電(dian)力(li)無法(fa)大(da)規模存儲的(de)特(te)性，高比例新(xin)能源接(jie)入之后，電(dian)源側不(bu)確定性增(zeng)加(jia)，在可靠的(de)常(chang)規機(ji)(ji)組(zu)無法(fa)滿足全部負荷供電(dian)的(de)需求時，電(dian)力(li)保障難度(du)(du)增(zeng)大(da)，特(te)別是極端氣候條件下(xia)的(de)電(dian)力(li)供應(ying)(ying)難度(du)(du)更大(da)。在國家雙碳目(mu)標背景下(xia)，光熱電(dian)站(zhan)具備替代火電(dian)的(de)潛(qian)力(li)，通過增(zeng)加(jia)應(ying)(ying)急鍋爐備用發電(dian)應(ying)(ying)對極端天氣，可以全容(rong)量(liang)(liang)替代火電(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)，作為季節性調峰(feng)電(dian)源滿足長(chang)時間尺(chi)度(du)(du)電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)平衡需要。

本文首先基于光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)出(chu)力特性和系統高(gao)峰(feng)時段需求，分(fen)析光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)替代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)能力，然后(hou)研究提升其保(bao)證出(chu)力的措施(shi)，提出(chu)測算光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)應急備用發電(dian)(dian)量計算方法(fa)，最后(hou)通過算例(li)進行驗(yan)證。

3光熱電站完全替代火電規劃研究

3.1光熱電(dian)站替(ti)代火電(dian)能(neng)力分析

電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)中一般以(yi)滿足高峰負(fu)荷時段電(dian)(dian)力(li)平(ping)衡確定系(xi)統(tong)火電(dian)(dian)裝機需求(qiu)(qiu)，光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站要參加電(dian)(dian)力(li)平(ping)衡（替(ti)代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)裝機）也需要保障高峰負(fu)荷時段電(dian)(dian)力(li)需求(qiu)(qiu)。

由于光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)與太陽直輻射密切相(xiang)關(guan)，某些天(tian)光(guang)照資源較好時(shi)，再加(jia)上儲熱(re)裝(zhuang)置蓄熱(re)，光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量較多，高峰負(fu)荷時(shi)段可(ke)保證(zheng)系統電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)需求，全(quan)容量參(can)加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)平(ping)衡。而在陰天(tian)或多云天(tian)氣，光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量很小，極(ji)端天(tian)氣光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站可(ke)能出力(li)為零，光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站裝(zhuang)機不能得到充(chong)分利用，高峰負(fu)荷時(shi)段不能有效參(can)加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)平(ping)衡。

系統可靠(kao)性保(bao)證率不同，光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)參加(jia)(jia)平(ping)衡容(rong)量(liang)(liang)也不一樣。為了提高光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)參加(jia)(jia)平(ping)衡容(rong)量(liang)(liang)，可以結合系統需(xu)(xu)要(yao)，通(tong)過增加(jia)(jia)應急鍋(guo)爐(lu)備用(yong)發電(dian)(dian)，使(shi)得光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)能夠完全(quan)替代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)，滿足系統電(dian)(dian)力保(bao)障需(xu)(xu)要(yao)。

3.2光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站應對(dui)季節性缺電(dian)(dian)能力分析

新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)出力具(ju)有(you)季節(jie)不(bu)(bu)均衡性(xing)，隨著(zhu)新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)裝機占比不(bu)(bu)斷提高，新(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統的(de)季節(jie)性(xing)電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量不(bu)(bu)平衡凸顯，某些月份資源(yuan)(yuan)較(jiao)差的(de)情(qing)況下(xia)，系(xi)統電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量缺額緊(jin)缺。目前來看在火電(dian)(dian)建(jian)設(she)空間逐步壓縮(suo)的(de)背景下(xia)，尚未有(you)可解(jie)決(jue)季節(jie)性(xing)不(bu)(bu)平衡的(de)有(you)效手段。光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站自身雖然受資源(yuan)(yuan)影響(xiang)也存在季節(jie)性(xing)不(bu)(bu)均衡情(qing)況，但可以通過增(zeng)加(jia)應急鍋爐備用(yong)發電(dian)(dian)以完(wan)全替代火電(dian)(dian)裝機，完(wan)美解(jie)決(jue)季節(jie)性(xing)不(bu)(bu)均衡問(wen)題。

4算例

以青(qing)海為例，2030年青(qing)海省全社會用電量(liang)達(da)到1100億kWh，最(zui)高發電負荷15500MW。青(qing)海新能源總(zong)裝(zhuang)機約57640MW，其中(zhong)光伏34000MW，風(feng)電16530MW，光熱5210MW。

4.1光熱電站出力特性分(fen)析

青海海西(xi)地區光(guang)(guang)熱(re)資(zi)源豐富，烏(wu)圖、冷湖、德令哈(ha)地區光(guang)(guang)熱(re)發電(dian)(dian)季節性(xing)明顯。以(yi)100MW光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)（鏡場面積148萬m2，太(tai)陽倍(bei)數(shu)(shu)(shu)2.9，儲熱(re)時長15h）為例，海西(xi)地區光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)典型(xing)年(nian)內各月(yue)(yue)(yue)發電(dian)(dian)量分布(bu)圖可以(yi)看出，2-4月(yue)(yue)(yue)、9-10月(yue)(yue)(yue)光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)發電(dian)(dian)量較多(duo)，6-8月(yue)(yue)(yue)和12月(yue)(yue)(yue)發電(dian)(dian)量較少。通過海西(xi)地區光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)典型(xing)年(nian)各月(yue)(yue)(yue)日(ri)等效發電(dian)(dian)小(xiao)時數(shu)(shu)(shu)小(xiao)于4小(xiao)時天(tian)(tian)數(shu)(shu)(shu)統計，可以(yi)看出，全年(nian)日(ri)光(guang)(guang)熱(re)等效發電(dian)(dian)小(xiao)時數(shu)(shu)(shu)低(di)于4小(xiao)時的天(tian)(tian)數(shu)(shu)(shu)分別(bie)為52天(tian)(tian)、57天(tian)(tian)、75天(tian)(tian)，在5-8月(yue)(yue)(yue)發生(sheng)較多(duo)。

4.2光熱替代火電能力(li)分析(xi)

從青(qing)(qing)海電(dian)網典(dian)型日負荷(he)曲(qu)線(xian)示意圖可(ke)以(yi)看出，青(qing)(qing)海負荷(he)曲(qu)線(xian)較(jiao)平，疊加(jia)直流外送曲(qu)線(xian)后，冬季晚高(gao)峰負荷(he)時(shi)(shi)段一般為18—21時(shi)(shi)左右，因此，電(dian)源參加(jia)電(dian)力(li)平衡(heng)需保證晚高(gao)峰時(shi)(shi)段4～6h電(dian)力(li)需求。

青海電網典型日負荷曲線示意圖

光熱(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)配置儲(chu)熱(re)(re)罐，考慮連續陰天情況，預(yu)留部分(fen)熱(re)(re)量跨日調節(jie)，光熱(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)日發(fa)電(dian)量優化后，將日發(fa)電(dian)量從大(da)到小(xiao)排序(xu)，按系統要求保證率，確定光熱(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)可調節(jie)日發(fa)電(dian)量。

作(zuo)者對海(hai)西烏圖地(di)區光(guang)熱電站替(ti)代(dai)火(huo)電裝機(ji)比(bi)例(li)進行了測算，結果顯(xian)示，按95%保證(zheng)率，不(bu)考慮(lv)跨日(ri)調節(jie)，光(guang)熱電站日(ri)等效保證(zheng)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)數(shu)為0，基本(ben)不(bu)能參加電力平衡，即無法(fa)替(ti)代(dai)火(huo)電裝機(ji)。考慮(lv)跨日(ri)調節(jie)，光(guang)熱電站日(ri)等效保證(zheng)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)數(shu)為5.1h，可滿足晚高(gao)峰負(fu)荷(he)4h需求，全容量(liang)參加電力平衡，完全替(ti)代(dai)相同容量(liang)火(huo)電裝機(ji)。若按100%保證(zheng)率，光(guang)熱電站日(ri)等效保證(zheng)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)數(shu)為3.5h，參加電力平衡比(bi)例(li)（火(huo)電容量(liang)替(ti)代(dai)率）約87.5%。

在不同保證(zheng)率情況(kuang)下(xia)，考(kao)慮跨日調節后的(de)光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)參加電(dian)(dian)力平衡容(rong)量，晚(wan)高(gao)峰(feng)時段按6h，光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)替(ti)代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)比例有所降低(di)，100%保證(zheng)率下(xia)，光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)僅(jin)可(ke)替(ti)代(dai)約50%左右(you)的(de)火電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)。

4.3光熱(re)電(dian)站應(ying)對季節性(xing)缺(que)電(dian)能(neng)力分析

青海(hai)以水電(dian)和新能源為主，清潔能源裝機占比(bi)達到90%以上，全(quan)年電(dian)量基本(ben)平衡(heng)，但存(cun)在(zai)季節(jie)性不平衡(heng)，冬季電(dian)力電(dian)量缺額較大。

通過青(qing)(qing)海(hai)(hai)(hai)水電月(yue)(yue)(yue)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)布(bu)示意(yi)圖可以看出，青(qing)(qing)海(hai)(hai)(hai)水電占比較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大，受來水影響(xiang)，夏季5-10月(yue)(yue)(yue)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)相(xiang)對較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)多(duo)(duo)，冬季11-12月(yue)(yue)(yue)和1-2月(yue)(yue)(yue)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)少(shao)，季節(jie)性(xing)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)不平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)明(ming)顯。青(qing)(qing)海(hai)(hai)(hai)新能源月(yue)(yue)(yue)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)布(bu)示意(yi)圖顯示，青(qing)(qing)海(hai)(hai)(hai)新能源受資源影響(xiang)也存(cun)在較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大的季節(jie)性(xing)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)不平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)，春季3-5月(yue)(yue)(yue)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)多(duo)(duo)，冬季11-12月(yue)(yue)(yue)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)明(ming)顯減(jian)少(shao)。青(qing)(qing)海(hai)(hai)(hai)逐(zhu)月(yue)(yue)(yue)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)結果顯示，由于水電和新能源發(fa)(fa)(fa)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)均受資源約(yue)束(shu)，季節(jie)性(xing)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)不平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)一直(zhi)存(cun)在，冬季兩者疊加后發(fa)(fa)(fa)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)減(jian)少(shao)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)多(duo)(duo)，青(qing)(qing)海(hai)(hai)(hai)全(quan)省出現較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大電量(liang)(liang)(liang)缺口。

青海(hai)季節(jie)性缺電(dian)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)一直存在，且隨著新能(neng)源裝(zhuang)機(ji)滲透率逐步(bu)(bu)提(ti)(ti)高，季節(jie)性缺電(dian)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)日益(yi)加劇(ju)。目前青海(hai)的(de)冬季缺電(dian)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)仍主(zhu)要依托西北主(zhu)網提(ti)(ti)供(gong)電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)支(zhi)撐(cheng)(cheng)，但隨著西北其他省份火(huo)電(dian)建設空(kong)間進一步(bu)(bu)壓(ya)縮，再加上(shang)規(gui)劃通道建成(cheng)和負荷(he)逐步(bu)(bu)增長，電(dian)力(li)盈余逐步(bu)(bu)減小，給青海(hai)能(neng)夠(gou)提(ti)(ti)供(gong)的(de)電(dian)力(li)支(zhi)撐(cheng)(cheng)有限，需要青海(hai)從自身內(nei)部尋求(qiu)能(neng)夠(gou)解(jie)決季節(jie)性電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)不平(ping)衡的(de)措施。目前來看(kan)，尚未有經濟可行的(de)跨季調節(jie)手段，光熱電(dian)站在通過應急備用發電(dian)可完全替(ti)代火(huo)電(dian)，以應對上(shang)述(shu)季節(jie)性缺電(dian)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)。

根據前述方法(fa)初(chu)步測(ce)算(suan)，海西地區全(quan)(quan)(quan)年應急發電(dian)電(dian)量22億kWh，其中12月份(fen)需(xu)要應急發電(dian)電(dian)量最大(da)(da)，約(yue)(yue)14億kWh（占(zhan)比64%），小時數提高(gao)約(yue)(yue)440h，占(zhan)比僅約(yue)(yue)8.8%。冬季(ji)12月日最大(da)(da)應急發電(dian)電(dian)量1.2億kWh（全(quan)(quan)(quan)天(tian)24h連續應急發電(dian)運(yun)行），小時最大(da)(da)發電(dian)量500萬kWh（即滿(man)功率(lv)發電(dian)），可全(quan)(quan)(quan)容量替代火電(dian)裝機。

2030年海西地區光熱電站發(fa)電量分布（含(han)應急發(fa)電）

2030年海西地區光熱電站12月逐時平均發電量（含應急發電）

對不同(tong)光熱(re)(re)規(gui)模對應(ying)的應(ying)急(ji)備用發電比例進(jin)行敏感性分析(xi)，隨著(zhu)光熱(re)(re)規(gui)模逐步減少(shao)，光熱(re)(re)應(ying)急(ji)備用發電比例呈(cheng)現逐步升高趨勢(shi)，由8.9%增加至(zhi)20.2%。

5結論

在(zai)國家雙碳(tan)目標驅動下，我國新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)裝機(ji)規模將(jiang)更加快速增(zeng)長，而火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)建設(she)空間(jian)進一(yi)步(bu)壓縮，未來以(yi)(yi)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)為主的(de)新(xin)(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)將(jiang)面臨一(yi)定(ding)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)保障(zhang)問(wen)題(ti)，光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站作為儲熱(re)型(xing)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站，通(tong)過增(zeng)加應(ying)(ying)急鍋爐備(bei)用發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，可(ke)以(yi)(yi)全(quan)時段(duan)替代火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)，為系統(tong)提供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量支撐，同(tong)時可(ke)以(yi)(yi)實現以(yi)(yi)少(shao)量低碳(tan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)帶動更大規模可(ke)再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)開發(fa)(fa)，可(ke)以(yi)(yi)助力(li)我國新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)開發(fa)(fa)目標和碳(tan)達峰目標早日完(wan)成。研究(jiu)結果初(chu)步(bu)表明，2030年前青海(hai)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)1000MW～5000MW光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站，通(tong)過增(zeng)加10%～20%左(zuo)右應(ying)(ying)急備(bei)用發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量可(ke)以(yi)(yi)完(wan)全(quan)替代相同(tong)容量火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，從而應(ying)(ying)對(dui)季節性缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)問(wen)題(ti)或極(ji)端(duan)天氣下的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量不足問(wen)題(ti)，保障(zhang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)可(ke)靠供(gong)應(ying)(ying)。