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“十三五”期間，我國多措并舉，持續推進以風電、太陽能發電為主的可再生能源開發，取得了舉世矚目的成績，新能源累計裝機規模突破4.5億千瓦，超過水電成為第二大電源，新能源年均新增裝機容量6036萬千瓦。“十四五”期間，隨著新能源步入平價時代，以及產業政策和市場環境的調整，使得新能源的發展面臨嚴峻的挑戰，但是在“四個革命、一個合作”能源戰略引領下，新能源將成為完成“碳達峰”和“碳中和”目標的重要方式，我國新能源也將迎來新的發展機遇。居安思危，曾經嚴峻的棄風限電問題雖得以緩解，但是否會伴隨著裝機規模的增加而再次卷土重來令人擔憂，如何避免消納問題再次成為新能源發展掣肘，是能源高質量發展道路上必須解決的課題。

我國新能源電力消納現狀

新能源裝機及消納情況

2020年，全國(guo)風電(dian)(dian)新增裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)7167萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，累(lei)計(ji)并(bing)網裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量達(da)到2.8億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占全國(guo)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)總裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)（22億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)）的12.8%，增長(chang)9.5%。其(qi)中，中東部和南方(fang)地區(qu)占32.6%，“三北”地區(qu)占67.4%，風電(dian)(dian)平(ping)均利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數2073小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)降低10小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。全國(guo)棄風電(dian)(dian)量166.1億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，風電(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)率96.5%，同(tong)比(bi)提(ti)升0.5個(ge)百分點(dian)；全國(guo)光(guang)(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)新增裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)4820萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，累(lei)計(ji)并(bing)網裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量達(da)到2.5億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占全國(guo)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)總裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)的11.5%，增長(chang)9.5%。全國(guo)光(guang)(guang)伏平(ping)均利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數1281小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)降低10小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。棄光(guang)(guang)電(dian)(dian)量52.6億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，光(guang)(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)率98.0%，與(yu)去(qu)年基(ji)本持平(ping)。

2020年，全國(guo)發電量(liang)(liang)(liang)76236億千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長4.0%。其中(zhong)，風電和(he)(he)光伏發電量(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為4665和(he)(he)2611億千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)增(zeng)長15.1%和(he)(he)16.6%，占(zhan)(zhan)全國(guo)發電量(liang)(liang)(liang)的比(bi)重分(fen)(fen)別(bie)比(bi)上(shang)年提高(gao)0.6和(he)(he)0.4個百分(fen)(fen)點，風電、太陽能累計發電量(liang)(liang)(liang)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)穩步提升。

制約新能源消納的原因

一是(shi)新能源爆發式(shi)增長(chang)(chang)與(yu)用電(dian)需求增長(chang)(chang)放(fang)緩(huan)矛(mao)盾突出。2012~2016年(nian)，全(quan)社(she)會用電(dian)量年(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)增長(chang)(chang)率(lv)4.5%，裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量年(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)增長(chang)(chang)率(lv)9%，風電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量年(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)增長(chang)(chang)率(lv)26.4%；近五年(nian)，全(quan)國全(quan)社(she)會用電(dian)量年(nian)均(jun)增長(chang)(chang)5%，同期電(dian)源裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)年(nian)均(jun)增長(chang)(chang)近10%，新能源裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)年(nian)均(jun)增長(chang)(chang)高達30%以(yi)上，新增用電(dian)市場無法支撐(cheng)各(ge)類電(dian)源的快速增長(chang)(chang)。

二是網源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展不(bu)協(xie)調嚴重(zhong)制(zhi)約新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展。我國能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)分(fen)布(bu)廣泛但不(bu)均衡，主要特征表現(xian)為能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)資(zi)源(yuan)“西富東(dong)(dong)貧”，消(xiao)(xiao)費“東(dong)(dong)多西少”，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)生產與消(xiao)(xiao)費中(zhong)心逆向(xiang)分(fen)布(bu)。如風電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)集中(zhong)的“三北”地區遠(yuan)離(li)負荷中(zhong)心，難以就地消(xiao)(xiao)納，電(dian)(dian)網發(fa)(fa)展滯(zhi)后(hou)。其他新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)富集大型能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)基地，都不(bu)同程度存(cun)在與開發(fa)(fa)配套的電(dian)(dian)網送出項目規劃、核準相對(dui)滯(zhi)后(hou)，跨省跨區通道(dao)能(neng)(neng)力不(bu)足等問題，成為制(zhi)約新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)納的剛性(xing)約束。

三是(shi)缺(que)(que)乏靈活調(diao)(diao)(diao)節電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)調(diao)(diao)(diao)節能力(li)不充足。新能源(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)具(ju)有間歇性、波動性等(deng)特征(zheng)，大(da)(da)規模并(bing)網對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網穩定(ding)性、連續(xu)性和可調(diao)(diao)(diao)性造成極大(da)(da)影響，因此對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)調(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)能力(li)提出很高要求(qiu)，而(er)目(mu)前系統(tong)缺(que)(que)乏靈活調(diao)(diao)(diao)節電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)，調(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)能力(li)不足。例如風(feng)資源(yuan)(yuan)集中的(de)“三北(bei)”地(di)區電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)結構(gou)單一(yi)，以煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機組為(wei)主，抽水蓄能、燃氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站等(deng)靈活調(diao)(diao)(diao)節電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)比重低，新疆、內蒙古等(deng)地(di)區大(da)(da)量(liang)自備電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠不參與系統(tong)調(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)，東北(bei)、華北(bei)燃煤機組中熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機組比重較大(da)(da)，冬(dong)季為(wei)了滿足供熱需求(qiu)，采暖期供熱機組“以熱定(ding)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”運(yun)行(xing)，進一(yi)步壓縮了機組調(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)空間，導致系統(tong)調(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)能力(li)嚴重不足。

四是促(cu)新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)納的(de)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)和市場機制不(bu)健(jian)全。目前(qian)，雖然各(ge)部委(wei)陸續出臺(tai)了多項(xiang)支持可再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)行業健(jian)康(kang)可持續發(fa)展的(de)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)文(wen)件，但是改革過程中各(ge)項(xiang)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)、各(ge)種博弈、各(ge)種利(li)益訴(su)求交織(zhi)在一(yi)起，因此政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)的(de)落地以及作用的(de)發(fa)揮不(bu)可能(neng)完全按照理論實現，需(xu)要(yao)經歷復雜(za)而曲折的(de)過程。當前(qian)我國電(dian)力供需(xu)以省內平衡和就地消(xiao)(xiao)納為主，缺乏促(cu)進清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)跨(kua)區跨(kua)省消(xiao)(xiao)納的(de)強有力政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)、合理的(de)電(dian)價和輔(fu)助服(fu)務等必要(yao)的(de)補償(chang)機制，省間壁壘突出，跨(kua)區跨(kua)省調節電(dian)力供需(xu)難度大，成為當前(qian)制約清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)納的(de)重要(yao)因素(su)。

新能源面臨的發展形勢

項目開發方面

“30·60”目標加快新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)跨(kua)越發(fa)展。2020年(nian)12月(yue)12日(ri)在氣候雄心峰會上我(wo)國(guo)提出到(dao)2030年(nian)中國(guo)單位國(guo)內生產總值二氧化(hua)碳(tan)排放將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)比(bi)2005年(nian)下降65%以(yi)上，非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)占一次(ci)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)比(bi)重將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)達到(dao)25%左右，風電(dian)、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)總裝機容量將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)達到(dao)12億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)以(yi)上。截至(zhi)2020年(nian)底，我(wo)國(guo)風電(dian)裝機2.8億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)、光伏發(fa)電(dian)裝機2.5億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，合計達5.4億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，預計未來10年(nian)，風電(dian)、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)合計年(nian)均至(zhi)少新(xin)增規模6700萬千瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)以(yi)上，才(cai)能(neng)(neng)實(shi)現12億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)迎(ying)來跨(kua)越式發(fa)展。

集(ji)(ji)散(san)(san)并舉(ju)，海(hai)陸(lu)齊進(jin)(jin)，發(fa)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)協同特征明顯。“十三(san)(san)五(wu)”期(qi)間(jian)(jian)，受“三(san)(san)北(bei)”地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)限電(dian)等(deng)因素影響，新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)項目向消納(na)(na)(na)(na)較好的中(zhong)(zhong)、東(dong)、南部等(deng)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)轉(zhuan)移，逐步形成集(ji)(ji)散(san)(san)并舉(ju)的格(ge)局(ju)(ju)，國家能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)局(ju)(ju)2020年發(fa)布(bu)的《新(xin)時代的中(zhong)(zhong)國能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)》白(bai)皮(pi)書(shu)指出(chu)，全面推進(jin)(jin)大型風(feng)電(dian)基(ji)地(di)建(jian)設(she)與分(fen)散(san)(san)風(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)發(fa)結合，優(you)先發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)平價風(feng)電(dian)項目。隨著“三(san)(san)北(bei)”地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)消納(na)(na)(na)(na)問(wen)題逐漸緩解，“十四(si)五(wu)”期(qi)間(jian)(jian)，土地(di)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)豐富、風(feng)光(guang)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和(he)建(jian)設(she)條件較好的“三(san)(san)北(bei)”地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)優(you)勢凸顯，特別是在(zai)外送通道建(jian)設(she)助力下，風(feng)電(dian)大基(ji)地(di)迎(ying)來又一(yi)輪建(jian)設(she)高潮，而(er)具備消納(na)(na)(na)(na)優(you)勢的中(zhong)(zhong)、東(dong)、南部和(he)內陸(lu)低(di)風(feng)速(su)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)則以分(fen)散(san)(san)式(shi)開(kai)發(fa)為(wei)主，有條件的地(di)方(fang)局(ju)(ju)部集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)開(kai)發(fa)。2021年全國能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)工作會(hui)議提出(chu)，要加(jia)快(kuai)風(feng)電(dian)、光(guang)伏發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，新(xin)增裝機(ji)總量較“十三(san)(san)五(wu)”有大幅增長，大力提升新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消納(na)(na)(na)(na)和(he)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)存能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力，發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)抽水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)產業(ye)，加(jia)快(kuai)推進(jin)(jin)“風(feng)光(guang)水(shui)火儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)一(yi)體(ti)化”和(he)“源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網荷儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)一(yi)體(ti)化”發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，1.2萬千瓦海(hai)上(shang)風(feng)電(dian)等(deng)領域(yu)取得突破。“十四(si)五(wu)”期(qi)間(jian)(jian)，新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)發(fa)“集(ji)(ji)散(san)(san)并舉(ju)、海(hai)陸(lu)齊進(jin)(jin)，發(fa)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)協同”的特征將(jiang)更加(jia)明顯。

電價及市場方面

平價(jia)時(shi)代(dai)全(quan)面到來(lai)。國家(jia)發(fa)改委2019年(nian)(nian)5月發(fa)布的(de)(de)《關于(yu)完(wan)善(shan)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)上網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)政(zheng)策的(de)(de)通知(zhi)》規(gui)定，自(zi)2021年(nian)(nian)1月1日開始，新核(he)準(zhun)的(de)(de)陸上風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目全(quan)面實現(xian)平價(jia)上網(wang)，國家(jia)不再(zai)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)，海上風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)2022年(nian)(nian)起(qi)執(zhi)行并網(wang)年(nian)(nian)份的(de)(de)指導價(jia)。2020年(nian)(nian)，財(cai)(cai)政(zheng)部、發(fa)改委和能源(yuan)局先后(hou)聯合(he)印發(fa)《關于(yu)促進非水(shui)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)健(jian)康(kang)發(fa)展的(de)(de)若干意(yi)見》和《關于(yu)促進非水(shui)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)健(jian)康(kang)發(fa)展的(de)(de)若干意(yi)見有關事項的(de)(de)補(bu)(bu)充通知(zhi)》，明確風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)伏、生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物質發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目全(quan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)命(ming)周(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)的(de)(de)合(he)理(li)利用(yong)小時(shi)數，規(gui)定納入可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)清單范圍的(de)(de)項目，所發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量超(chao)過全(quan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)命(ming)周(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量部分，不再(zai)享受中央財(cai)(cai)政(zheng)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)，核(he)發(fa)綠證準(zhun)許(xu)參與綠證交易，這意(yi)味著風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)伏電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)的(de)(de)方式由全(quan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)向全(quan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)命(ming)周(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)轉(zhuan)變。

市(shi)(shi)場(chang)化(hua)交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)規(gui)模進一(yi)步(bu)擴大。2017年(nian)以來，發改委、能(neng)(neng)源局等部門相繼(ji)出臺一(yi)系(xi)列政策和(he)規(gui)則，來不斷完善(shan)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)化(hua)機制(zhi)，探索通過(guo)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)化(hua)消納新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源的(de)新(xin)(xin)(xin)途(tu)徑(jing)，2019年(nian)我(wo)國市(shi)(shi)場(chang)交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占售(shou)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)比(bi)重接近40%，啟動(dong)8個省(sheng)級現(xian)貨市(shi)(shi)場(chang)試(shi)點，部分新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源富集(ji)省(sheng)區陸續開展多種市(shi)(shi)場(chang)化(hua)交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)，包(bao)括：大用戶直接交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)、發電(dian)(dian)(dian)權置換(huan)、調峰輔助服務市(shi)(shi)場(chang)交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)、新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源跨(kua)區現(xian)貨交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)等。北京電(dian)(dian)(dian)力交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)中心(xin)數據顯示，2020年(nian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源省(sheng)間交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)915億千瓦(wa)時，同比(bi)增長3.7%，其中天(tian)中、祁韶、靈紹、魯(lu)固、高嶺等跨(kua)區通道新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源占比(bi)超過(guo)20%。

技術及政策方面

儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)及(ji)虛擬(ni)(ni)電廠(chang)(chang)促(cu)消納見成(cheng)(cheng)效。2020年，多地(di)探索儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)調(diao)節、試點開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)虛擬(ni)(ni)電廠(chang)(chang)調(diao)峰促(cu)進新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)消納。青海、寧夏、山(shan)東(dong)、江(jiang)(jiang)蘇和湖(hu)南(nan)等地(di)均出臺了輔(fu)助服務(wu)市場交(jiao)易(yi)規則，鼓勵儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)電站參與輔(fu)助服務(wu)。在(zai)浙(zhe)江(jiang)(jiang)、江(jiang)(jiang)蘇兩地(di)開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)虛擬(ni)(ni)電廠(chang)(chang)調(diao)峰試點，其中江(jiang)(jiang)蘇省(sheng)在(zai)國慶假期(qi)實(shi)施填(tian)谷電力(li)需求響應，促(cu)進清潔能(neng)源(yuan)消納8690萬(wan)千瓦(wa)時(shi)。在(zai)山(shan)西啟動(dong)(dong)“新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)+電動(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車”智慧能(neng)源(yuan)試點以解決棄風棄光問題，降低電動(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車用電成(cheng)(cheng)本。隨著能(neng)源(yuan)供(gong)給結構性改革深(shen)化，綜(zong)合能(neng)源(yuan)利用項目開(kai)(kai)發(fa)、技(ji)術創新(xin)和新(xin)技(ji)術應用集(ji)成(cheng)(cheng)發(fa)展(zhan)已成(cheng)(cheng)為“十四五”規劃的(de)重要戰略目標，綜(zong)合能(neng)源(yuan)利用有望成(cheng)(cheng)為新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)領域新(xin)的(de)增長(chang)點。

可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)納(na)保(bao)障機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)發(fa)揮(hui)實(shi)效(xiao)(xiao)。2019年(nian)5月可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電力消(xiao)納(na)保(bao)障機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)出臺，意味著能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)低(di)(di)碳(tan)轉型發(fa)展長效(xiao)(xiao)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)建立(li)，但是(shi)要(yao)真(zhen)正落實(shi)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)納(na)責任，需要(yao)科學確定消(xiao)納(na)責任權重(zhong)，發(fa)揮(hui)目(mu)標導向(xiang)作用，建立(li)有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)的(de)監管機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，同時完(wan)善綠(lv)色電力證書交(jiao)易(yi)。自2017年(nian)我國開始實(shi)行綠(lv)證自愿認購，但市場始終“低(di)(di)溫(wen)運(yun)行”,未發(fa)揮(hui)其應有(you)的(de)作用。隨著“全壽命周期補(bu)(bu)貼”的(de)實(shi)施，補(bu)(bu)貼和“綠(lv)證”脫鉤(gou)，為(wei)“綠(lv)證”交(jiao)易(yi)創造了條件(jian)，使得(de)“綠(lv)證”收入成為(wei)增(zeng)加項目(mu)收益的(de)重(zhong)要(yao)途徑。

新能源消納行穩致遠

“十四五”期(qi)間，新能源(yuan)電(dian)力勢將(jiang)迎來(lai)更(geng)(geng)廣闊的市場，也將(jiang)承擔更(geng)(geng)重(zhong)要的歷(li)史使命，如何防范(fan)和解決大規模新能源(yuan)并網(wang)消納(na)問題，應得到重(zhong)視和解決，應多方著手(shou)(shou)，統籌規劃，下(xia)好(hao)“先手(shou)(shou)棋”。

因(yin)地(di)制(zhi)宜強(qiang)戰略(lve)(lve)，政策(ce)落實(shi)(shi)謀長(chang)遠。一(yi)是可(ke)(ke)(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)規劃(hua)(hua)要與(yu)電(dian)網(wang)發(fa)展規劃(hua)(hua)相(xiang)適應，綜合(he)考慮(lv)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展和電(dian)網(wang)安全性(xing)，合(he)理(li)規劃(hua)(hua)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機，優化(hua)網(wang)架結構，建立健(jian)康(kang)的成本(ben)分(fen)攤機制(zhi)，促(cu)進(jin)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納(na)(na)。二是項(xiang)目(mu)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)要因(yin)地(di)制(zhi)宜進(jin)行戰略(lve)(lve)布局。“三北”地(di)區(qu)結合(he)特高(gao)壓(ya)等(deng)電(dian)力送(song)出工程布局大基地(di)項(xiang)目(mu)；水電(dian)豐富區(qu)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)風光(guang)水儲(chu)一(yi)體(ti)化(hua)基地(di)項(xiang)目(mu)，有效(xiao)推(tui)進(jin)源(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷儲(chu)一(yi)體(ti)化(hua)典型項(xiang)目(mu)；中(zhong)東部地(di)區(qu)電(dian)價高(gao)，消(xiao)納(na)(na)能(neng)(neng)力強(qiang)，應綜合(he)利用(yong)(yong)(yong)土地(di)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)漁光(guang)互(hu)補、農(nong)光(guang)互(hu)補項(xiang)目(mu)。三是強(qiang)化(hua)產業政策(ce)落地(di)，切實(shi)(shi)發(fa)揮(hui)(hui)可(ke)(ke)(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納(na)(na)保障(zhang)機制(zhi)作用(yong)(yong)(yong)，提(ti)升各省區(qu)優先消(xiao)納(na)(na)可(ke)(ke)(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)積極(ji)性(xing)，目(mu)前尚處于“低溫(wen)”運(yun)行狀態下的綠證交易(yi)，亟需盡快完善以(yi)實(shi)(shi)現與(yu)市場建設的高(gao)效(xiao)銜(xian)接，用(yong)(yong)(yong)“看不見的手”代(dai)替行政管(guan)制(zhi)，充(chong)分(fen)發(fa)揮(hui)(hui)市場在資源(yuan)(yuan)配置中(zhong)的決(jue)定性(xing)作用(yong)(yong)(yong)，若能(neng)(neng)與(yu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)保障(zhang)機制(zhi)有效(xiao)協調，可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)穩定企業收益與(yu)現金流(liu)，提(ti)升項(xiang)目(mu)測算經(jing)濟(ji)效(xiao)益，實(shi)(shi)現項(xiang)目(mu)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)與(yu)市場交易(yi)相(xiang)互(hu)促(cu)進(jin)。

技(ji)術(shu)(shu)創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)破(po)壁壘，源(yuan)網(wang)(wang)(wang)荷(he)儲強(qiang)協同。一(yi)是(shi)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)提高(gao)(gao)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)經濟性(xing)，當前新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)和(he)成(cheng)本(ben)應對平價的(de)(de)全面(mian)到(dao)來(lai)，尚顯得力不從心(xin)，在(zai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉型中勝任主力軍(jun)角色(se)更是(shi)需(xu)要(yao)進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)提高(gao)(gao)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)利用(yong)小時數(shu)、降(jiang)低度(du)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)、提高(gao)(gao)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)特(te)性(xing)。二(er)是(shi)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統穩定性(xing)和(he)波動(dong)性(xing)的(de)(de)問(wen)(wen)(wen)題，是(shi)制(zhi)約(yue)其(qi)并網(wang)(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)關鍵，目(mu)(mu)前解決該問(wen)(wen)(wen)題的(de)(de)主要(yao)手段有(you)大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)和(he)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)兩種，一(yi)方面(mian)要(yao)加強(qiang)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)建(jian)設，擴大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)互聯(lian)、推進(jin)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)化(hua)(hua)，以(yi)(yi)(yi)增強(qiang)大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)優(you)化(hua)(hua)配置資(zi)源(yuan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力；另一(yi)方面(mian)需(xu)要(yao)轉變觀念，發(fa)揮(hui)煤電(dian)(dian)等(deng)傳統火電(dian)(dian)調(diao)(diao)節(jie)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)作用(yong)，要(yao)加強(qiang)氫(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)手段的(de)(de)應用(yong)，盡(jin)快打破(po)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)壁壘，對于配套儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)，要(yao)合理優(you)化(hua)(hua)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)方案，以(yi)(yi)(yi)產業鏈的(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)速發(fa)展帶動(dong)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)進(jin)步(bu)和(he)造價下調(diao)(diao)，不斷(duan)優(you)化(hua)(hua)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)性(xing)價比以(yi)(yi)(yi)確保項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)收益(yi)。三是(shi)深挖(wa)需(xu)求側潛(qian)力，推進(jin)源(yuan)荷(he)互動(dong)。隨著大數(shu)據、物聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)、5G等(deng)信息與數(shu)字技(ji)術(shu)(shu)不斷(duan)進(jin)步(bu)，通過構建(jian)需(xu)求側智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)管控(kong)系(xi)統，實(shi)現荷(he)隨源(yuan)動(dong)、源(yuan)荷(he)互動(dong)，為(wei)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)間歇性(xing)問(wen)(wen)(wen)題提供解決路徑。

市場(chang)建(jian)設(she)開新(xin)(xin)篇，產(chan)業發(fa)(fa)展拓(tuo)空間。加(jia)快(kuai)構建(jian)適應(ying)新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)優先發(fa)(fa)展的(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市場(chang)機制(zhi)(zhi)，一是建(jian)立健康的(de)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)分(fen)攤機制(zhi)(zhi)，平(ping)價上(shang)網不等(deng)(deng)同(tong)于平(ping)價利(li)用(yong)，新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)利(li)用(yong)不但包含自身發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)，還(huan)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)考慮系(xi)統成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)，系(xi)統成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)通過市場(chang)機制(zhi)(zhi)共同(tong)分(fen)擔，才能更好消納新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)。二是做好優先發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)保障和市場(chang)化消納的(de)銜接，隨(sui)著分(fen)布式能源(yuan)(yuan)和用(yong)戶側需(xu)求響應(ying)技術的(de)進(jin)步，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市場(chang)主體呈現多(duo)元化，新(xin)(xin)興(xing)化趨勢，以碳中和為契機，通過電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市場(chang)主體與新(xin)(xin)興(xing)技術融合拓(tuo)展，發(fa)(fa)售用(yong)等(deng)(deng)多(duo)重市場(chang)角(jiao)色重塑，發(fa)(fa)揮“虛擬電(dian)(dian)廠”“負荷聚集商”等(deng)(deng)新(xin)(xin)興(xing)市場(chang)主體的(de)作用(yong)，進(jin)一步拓(tuo)寬新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)消納空間。

注：本文刊載于《中國電力企業管理》2021年02期，作者供職于中國大唐集團新能源股份有限公司。