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高比例風光發電接入系統影響轉動慣量的問題及解決方案電網的安全穩定運行需要足夠的轉動慣量。實現碳中和的高比例風光發電需要火電機組提供必須的旋轉慣量和備用支撐。利用電力系統內部可調節性機組的調節能力（虛擬儲能）實現風光發電消納。

自2020年9月以(yi)來，碳達峰、碳中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)成(cheng)為能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)圈內的(de)(de)熱門話(hua)題，風(feng)光(guang)(guang)等新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)被寄予(yu)厚望。在能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)規(gui)劃中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，風(feng)光(guang)(guang)等新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)得到大(da)力(li)(li)支持(chi)和(he)(he)(he)發展(zhan)，要(yao)在30·60目標中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)承擔主力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)作用(yong)(yong)；而煤炭(tan)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)要(yao)受到限制，燃煤機(ji)組(zu)(zu)裝機(ji)規(gui)模甚至要(yao)裁剪。近期寒潮(chao)之(zhi)下，湖南、江(jiang)西(xi)等地的(de)(de)“拉閘(zha)限電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”又讓(rang)業(ye)內外感(gan)到困惑：風(feng)光(guang)(guang)等新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在冰凍(dong)覆雪中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)無(wu)法出力(li)(li)、省間輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通道難當大(da)任，各級政府被迫首選協調(diao)各種資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)促(cu)進煤炭(tan)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)和(he)(he)(he)運輸，保證煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)滿(man)負荷(he)運行，配合(he)有序用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)方(fang)案，才能(neng)確保民生(sheng)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)不受影響。暫(zan)時的(de)(de)困難，并不能(neng)阻(zu)礙碳達峰、碳中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)成(cheng)為中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國人(ren)(ren)對美(mei)好生(sheng)活的(de)(de)向往，更不會動搖電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行業(ye)走(zou)向“脫碳”的(de)(de)決心。在30·60目標下，高比例風(feng)光(guang)(guang)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模式將成(cheng)為必(bi)然的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)選擇，在可(ke)預見的(de)(de)時間內，“風(feng)光(guang)(guang)+大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)”也將是電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行業(ye)實現(xian)碳中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)的(de)(de)必(bi)然技術(shu)方(fang)案。但我(wo)們還是要(yao)清醒(xing)地認識(shi)到，風(feng)光(guang)(guang)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)大(da)比例發展(zhan)將對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)必(bi)須的(de)(de)轉動慣量和(he)(he)(he)備(bei)用(yong)(yong)產(chan)(chan)生(sheng)致命影響，嚴重威脅電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的(de)(de)平穩(wen)運行，大(da)量調(diao)節備(bei)用(yong)(yong)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)損失(shi)的(de)(de)機(ji)會成(cheng)本(ben)和(he)(he)(he)沉沒成(cheng)本(ben)也會使電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的(de)(de)運行費用(yong)(yong)上升(sheng)。在2019年倫(lun)敦大(da)停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事故的(de)(de)警示之(zhi)下，我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行業(ye)如何健康(kang)穩(wen)定(ding)發展(zhan)，謀(mou)求“安全、經濟、環保”能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)不可(ke)能(neng)三(san)角的(de)(de)最優妥協點，需要(yao)廣大(da)專業(ye)人(ren)(ren)士認真思考和(he)(he)(he)討論。

電力行業注定是碳中和的重點行業

首先，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力是最大的(de)(de)碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)行(xing)業(ye)。2019年全社(she)會發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)73253億千瓦(wa)時，其中火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)為50450億千瓦(wa)時，折合二氧(yang)化碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)大約50億噸(dun)，占全國碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)總量(liang)的(de)(de)51%。電(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業(ye)不僅是能源供(gong)給大戶，同時還是能源消耗(hao)大戶。電(dian)(dian)(dian)網企業(ye)的(de)(de)網損(sun)和(he)(he)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)企業(ye)的(de)(de)廠用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)合計占到全社(she)會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)百分(fen)之十(shi)以上，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業(ye)不但在生產過(guo)程中產生了碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)，自身電(dian)(dian)(dian)力消耗(hao)也引發了相當(dang)一部分(fen)碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)。因(yin)此(ci)，如何(he)實(shi)現(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業(ye)碳(tan)(tan)減排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)將(jiang)是實(shi)現(xian)碳(tan)(tan)中和(he)(he)的(de)(de)關鍵(jian)因(yin)素之一。

其(qi)(qi)次，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力資(zi)產(chan)較(jiao)為(wei)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)，易于整體考慮政策(ce)。2020年全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)總(zong)裝機11億千瓦，90%以上的(de)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)資(zi)產(chan)屬于國(guo)(guo)(guo)有資(zi)產(chan)，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)五(wu)大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力集(ji)團（華(hua)能、大(da)唐(tang)、華(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、國(guo)(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)投和國(guo)(guo)(guo)家能源）火電(dian)(dian)(dian)總(zong)裝機達5.6億千瓦，占比51%。國(guo)(guo)(guo)有企(qi)業(ye)有高度的(de)社(she)會責任感，落實國(guo)(guo)(guo)家政策(ce)和要求從不打折扣(kou)。全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)網資(zi)產(chan)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)在國(guo)(guo)(guo)網、南(nan)網、內(nei)蒙(meng)古電(dian)(dian)(dian)力公(gong)司三個(ge)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網公(gong)司，輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)網長(chang)期(qi)保持統一(yi)運行(xing)、統一(yi)調度，優化網絡運行(xing)的(de)空(kong)間(jian)較(jiao)大(da)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)力企(qi)業(ye)資(zi)產(chan)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)特點，容易實現政策(ce)上、技術上的(de)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)處理，相較(jiao)其(qi)(qi)他行(xing)業(ye)有著天然(ran)的(de)優勢。

第(di)三，電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)技(ji)(ji)術和(he)(he)資(zi)金(jin)條(tiao)件(jian)較好。實(shi)現碳(tan)達峰需(xu)要新(xin)技(ji)(ji)術投入和(he)(he)大(da)量(liang)資(zi)金(jin)支持。國(guo)有(you)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)企業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)研究機(ji)構長期(qi)關注能源轉(zhuan)型，很(hen)好地把握了(le)新(xin)的(de)(de)(de)發電(dian)技(ji)(ji)術成(cheng)果和(he)(he)技(ji)(ji)術發展(zhan)方向，儲備了(le)大(da)量(liang)用于能源轉(zhuan)型的(de)(de)(de)各類(lei)技(ji)(ji)術，擁有(you)碳(tan)中和(he)(he)相關技(ji)(ji)術的(de)(de)(de)專(zhuan)(zhuan)業(ye)化(hua)研究隊伍，相對于行(xing)業(ye)外的(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)術專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)，實(shi)操能力(li)(li)(li)更強(qiang)(qiang)，對轉(zhuan)型的(de)(de)(de)痛點和(he)(he)各種設想(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)可行(xing)性認(ren)識更為(wei)深刻。電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)企業(ye)有(you)著(zhu)雄厚的(de)(de)(de)資(zi)金(jin)積累(lei)和(he)(he)支持，這(zhe)些都為(wei)碳(tan)中和(he)(he)的(de)(de)(de)實(shi)現提(ti)供了(le)堅(jian)強(qiang)(qiang)的(de)(de)(de)物質基礎。

此外，電力行(xing)業(ye)屬(shu)于社會(hui)基礎行(xing)業(ye)，事關千(qian)家萬戶。目前電力行(xing)業(ye)開始(shi)轉型，逐步建設電力現(xian)貨(huo)市場，由(you)市場決定的(de)(de)(de)電力價(jia)格可以(yi)實現(xian)用(yong)戶側(ce)引導，促進節能技術的(de)(de)(de)投(tou)入使用(yong)。由(you)此可以(yi)看出(chu)，電力行(xing)業(ye)將首先開始(shi)碳中(zhong)和(he)(he)工作(zuo)，實現(xian)用(yong)戶側(ce)引導，可實現(xian)社會(hui)生產和(he)(he)人民(min)生活(huo)習慣(guan)的(de)(de)(de)改變，逐漸(jian)帶動其(qi)他行(xing)業(ye)形成合力，實現(xian)全社會(hui)在(zai)碳中(zhong)和(he)(he)方面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)和(he)(he)諧共振。

電力行業碳中和的實施方式

高(gao)比例風光新能源是現階(jie)段(duan)電力生產側實現碳(tan)中(zhong)和的必(bi)然選擇

目前(qian)全社會用電量(liang)需(xu)求還在(zai)逐年上升，而(er)在(zai)碳捕獲與封(feng)存（Carbon Capture and Storage，簡稱CCS）技術(shu)尚(shang)不成熟(shu)的條件下，電力行(xing)業(ye)需(xu)要大力發(fa)展零(ling)碳發(fa)電技術(shu)。目前(qian)成規模(mo)的零(ling)碳發(fa)電技術(shu)一般是核電、水電、生物質和(he)風光等(deng)非化石燃料發(fa)電技術(shu)。

水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)大規模(mo)增長空間有限。水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)目前已成(cheng)為我國第二大主力裝機電(dian)(dian)源，裝機達3.6億千(qian)瓦，占總裝機17.7%，成(cheng)為世界(jie)第一(yi)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)裝機大國。而水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)發(fa)展(zhan)由于資源受限、廠址選擇(ze)受限、移民安置困(kun)難(nan)、季節性豐枯期發(fa)電(dian)(dian)不均、生態保護影響大等原因，就目前的(de)(de)技術(shu)水(shui)(shui)平，水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)在未(wei)來全(quan)社(she)會用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)中的(de)(de)占比總體可能成(cheng)下降趨勢。

核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)大(da)規模增長的條件(jian)尚(shang)不具備(bei)。國(guo)內核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)技(ji)術發展較快，已(yi)發展至(zhi)第四(si)代核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)技(ji)術，核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)達4874萬千(qian)瓦，占(zhan)總裝機(ji)2.4%，成為世(shi)界第三核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)大(da)國(guo)。然而，核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)受制(zhi)于安全(quan)約束、技(ji)術難度伴(ban)隨(sui)固定(ding)投資增加、廠(chang)址選擇(ze)受限(xian)和核(he)(he)廢料(liao)處理困難等問題，就(jiu)目前技(ji)術水平來看，核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)尚(shang)不具備(bei)大(da)規模增長的條件(jian)。

生(sheng)物(wu)質(zhi)發(fa)展難占“C位”。生(sheng)物(wu)質(zhi)發(fa)電(dian)是眾多發(fa)電(dian)類型中的(de)一個小(xiao)眾發(fa)電(dian)模式，但是由于其發(fa)電(dian)可(ke)控(kong)，二氧(yang)化碳排(pai)放為零，引起了行業內部重視。目前(qian)生(sheng)物(wu)質(zhi)發(fa)電(dian)主要有氣(qi)化發(fa)電(dian)和直接燃(ran)(ran)燒發(fa)電(dian)兩種形(xing)式，以直接燃(ran)(ran)燒發(fa)電(dian)較為普(pu)遍(bian)。而生(sheng)物(wu)質(zhi)發(fa)電(dian)由于燃(ran)(ran)料運(yun)輸半徑(jing)受限(xian)，單機容量普(pu)遍(bian)較小(xiao)，造(zao)成投資成本和運(yun)行成本較大，電(dian)量占比上升空間有限(xian)。

相對于(yu)其他(ta)電源種類，風(feng)(feng)光新(xin)能(neng)源發電雖然(ran)存在(zai)季節(jie)性(xing)能(neng)源分布(bu)不均(jun)，天氣影響較(jiao)大(da)，發電出力波動(dong)性(xing)、隨機性(xing)較(jiao)大(da)等(deng)問(wen)題，但(dan)是由于(yu)風(feng)(feng)光等(deng)新(xin)能(neng)源資源豐富、地域分布(bu)廣、廠址選(xuan)擇受限較(jiao)小(xiao)、運行(xing)成本(ben)小(xiao)、固(gu)定(ding)投資成本(ben)相比水電、核電較(jiao)低等(deng)優(you)勢，高風(feng)(feng)光電量占比的系統(tong)在(zai)國(guo)(guo)際上有(you)一定(ding)的運行(xing)經(jing)驗，是現階段技術(shu)經(jing)濟條(tiao)件(jian)下(xia)，實現碳中和必然(ran)選(xuan)擇的電源。因此，國(guo)(guo)家(jia)也在(zai)電力規劃中重點發展風(feng)(feng)光發電，到(dao)2030年，風(feng)(feng)電、太陽能(neng)發電總裝(zhuang)機容量將達到(dao)12億(yi)千瓦(wa)以上（較(jiao)2019年增長近8億(yi)千瓦(wa)）。

大電網為主消納是現階段高比例風光消納的唯一選擇

2020年中國(guo)風(feng)(feng)電、太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)(fa)電總裝(zhuang)機容(rong)(rong)(rong)量4.4億千瓦，裝(zhuang)機容(rong)(rong)(rong)量占(zhan)比達20%。根據規(gui)劃，到2030年風(feng)(feng)電、太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機容(rong)(rong)(rong)量占(zhan)比將達40%以上，而到2060年風(feng)(feng)電、太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機容(rong)(rong)(rong)量占(zhan)比將接近70%。風(feng)(feng)光發(fa)(fa)(fa)電出(chu)力(li)(li)(li)不可控的(de)波動性(xing)(xing)和(he)(he)隨機性(xing)(xing)，造(zao)成風(feng)(feng)光發(fa)(fa)(fa)電出(chu)力(li)(li)(li)曲(qu)線與電力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)負(fu)荷曲(qu)線不符甚至是相反。為了有效解決風(feng)(feng)光新能源的(de)波動影響用(yong)戶電力(li)(li)(li)使用(yong)平穩的(de)問題，目前(qian)解決平衡消納的(de)手段主要有大電網和(he)(he)儲能兩種(zhong)。

儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)消納(na)風(feng)光發電(dian)的(de)(de)(de)優(you)劣(lie)(lie)：儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技術(shu)(shu)(shu)可以(yi)(yi)(yi)很好地起到移峰(feng)填谷作(zuo)用，有(you)效(xiao)消除(chu)風(feng)光新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)波動性。目(mu)前(qian)(qian)實施(shi)的(de)(de)(de)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技術(shu)(shu)(shu)主要(yao)(yao)分(fen)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)物理機(ji)械(xie)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、電(dian)化(hua)學(xue)(xue)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)(he)氫儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。物理機(ji)械(xie)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)以(yi)(yi)(yi)抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、壓縮(suo)空氣(qi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)(he)飛輪儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)代(dai)表。物理儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)優(you)勢(shi)(shi)就(jiu)是(shi)安全(quan)系數(shu)較高、儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)容量(liang)大(da)(da)(da)、技術(shu)(shu)(shu)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)熟(shu)(shu)、壽命長，而劣(lie)(lie)勢(shi)(shi)則是(shi)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本大(da)(da)(da)、選(xuan)址困難、效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)低(di)。電(dian)化(hua)學(xue)(xue)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)以(yi)(yi)(yi)鋰(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)、鉛酸電(dian)池(chi)(chi)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)代(dai)表，優(you)勢(shi)(shi)是(shi)效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)高、充放(fang)電(dian)速(su)度快、選(xuan)址容易，劣(lie)(lie)勢(shi)(shi)是(shi)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本大(da)(da)(da)、安全(quan)系數(shu)低(di)、環(huan)境溫度影(ying)響大(da)(da)(da)。氫儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)以(yi)(yi)(yi)電(dian)解氫+氫燃料電(dian)池(chi)(chi)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)代(dai)表，優(you)勢(shi)(shi)就(jiu)是(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)密(mi)度大(da)(da)(da)，劣(lie)(lie)勢(shi)(shi)是(shi)技術(shu)(shu)(shu)尚不成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)熟(shu)(shu)，安全(quan)問(wen)題沒(mei)有(you)徹底解決(jue)。總之，目(mu)前(qian)(qian)除(chu)了尚不成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)熟(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技術(shu)(shu)(shu)，較為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)熟(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)(he)化(hua)學(xue)(xue)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)之外(wai)，其他(ta)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技術(shu)(shu)(shu)都存在投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本過(guo)大(da)(da)(da)和(he)(he)運行成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本高的(de)(de)(de)缺陷(xian)，抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)站(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)綜合效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)一般(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.65~0.75，而化(hua)學(xue)(xue)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)目(mu)前(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)度電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本大(da)(da)(da)致在0.6~0.9元千(qian)瓦時。在電(dian)網托(tuo)(tuo)底的(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)下(xia)，京津唐(tang)地區(qu)大(da)(da)(da)負荷期間如需(xu)(xu)使用高比(bi)例風(feng)光電(dian)源(yuan)，則需(xu)(xu)要(yao)(yao)具(ju)備(bei)存儲(chu)50億(yi)千(qian)瓦時的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)，按目(mu)前(qian)(qian)最經濟(ji)的(de)(de)(de)存儲(chu)方式也(ye)需(xu)(xu)要(yao)(yao)5萬億(yi)的(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)，類推(tui)全(quan)國則需(xu)(xu)要(yao)(yao)100萬億(yi)以(yi)(yi)(yi)上投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)，是(shi)目(mu)前(qian)(qian)全(quan)國電(dian)網資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)20倍以(yi)(yi)(yi)上。如不用電(dian)網托(tuo)(tuo)底，完全(quan)依靠配套(tao)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)方式，投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)還(huan)要(yao)(yao)有(you)數(shu)十倍的(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)加。因此，在可預(yu)見的(de)(de)(de)時間內或(huo)者至少近期，在經濟(ji)性上尚無一種(zhong)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技術(shu)(shu)(shu)可以(yi)(yi)(yi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)風(feng)光發電(dian)消納(na)的(de)(de)(de)主要(yao)(yao)手段(duan)，就(jiu)是(shi)說傳統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)“電(dian)力(li)不具(ju)備(bei)大(da)(da)(da)規模經濟(ji)存儲(chu)條(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)”的(de)(de)(de)規律仍然發揮(hui)作(zuo)用。

大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)消(xiao)納(na)(na)(na)風(feng)(feng)光(guang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)的優(you)劣：大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)消(xiao)納(na)(na)(na)風(feng)(feng)光(guang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)就(jiu)(jiu)是(shi)(shi)利(li)用電(dian)(dian)網(wang)的電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)輸(shu)送能(neng)(neng)力(li)，將風(feng)(feng)光(guang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)發(fa)出的具(ju)有波動性、隨機性的電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)及時輸(shu)送到電(dian)(dian)力(li)需求側，利(li)用電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)內部(bu)可調節(jie)性機組的調節(jie)能(neng)(neng)力(li)（虛擬儲能(neng)(neng)）實現風(feng)(feng)光(guang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)消(xiao)納(na)(na)(na)。大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)消(xiao)納(na)(na)(na)風(feng)(feng)光(guang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)相對于(yu)儲能(neng)(neng)技(ji)術(shu)的優(you)勢就(jiu)(jiu)是(shi)(shi)經濟性明顯，而存(cun)在的劣勢就(jiu)(jiu)是(shi)(shi)存(cun)在安(an)全事故聯鎖反應風(feng)(feng)險，而且(qie)大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)消(xiao)納(na)(na)(na)容易出現經濟責任難以劃分的情(qing)況(kuang)。

考慮到儲能技術突破的(de)(de)周期(qi)通常為(wei)20~30年，因此達成30·60目(mu)標不(bu)能寄希望于儲能技術快速解(jie)決其經(jing)濟劣勢，實(shi)(shi)現(xian)風(feng)光發(fa)電消(xiao)(xiao)納(na)的(de)(de)唯一(yi)(yi)選(xuan)擇(ze)仍是(shi)依靠大(da)電網(wang)的(de)(de)電能調(diao)配(pei)手段。盡管大(da)電網(wang)消(xiao)(xiao)納(na)是(shi)風(feng)光消(xiao)(xiao)納(na)的(de)(de)唯一(yi)(yi)經(jing)濟性現(xian)實(shi)(shi)選(xuan)擇(ze)，但是(shi)要實(shi)(shi)現(xian)未來如(ru)此高比(bi)例的(de)(de)風(feng)光發(fa)電消(xiao)(xiao)納(na)，目(mu)前仍有(you)系列障礙難以(yi)跨越，需要加大(da)科(ke)研力量，以(yi)問題為(wei)導向，尋求解(jie)決這些障礙的(de)(de)技術經(jing)濟方案(an)。

大電網消納方式的現實障礙和解決方案

2019年(nian)8月9日，英國倫敦發生了(le)2003年(nian)以(yi)來(lai)最嚴(yan)重(zhong)的停電事故。雖然導(dao)致這(zhe)次事故的原(yuan)因有很多，但其中(zhong)最重(zhong)要的原(yuan)因是高(gao)比例風(feng)光發電的電網轉動(dong)慣(guan)量不足(zu)(zu)，異常擾動(dong)導(dao)致頻率異常波動(dong)，風(feng)電機組群對頻率波動(dong)抗(kang)干擾能力不足(zu)(zu)而脫網，系統(tong)備用不足(zu)(zu)造成的聯鎖(suo)反應(ying)。此(ci)次停電事故，給我(wo)們敲(qiao)響了(le)警鐘，需要我(wo)們認真思考電網實現高(gao)比例風(feng)光發電消納的技術和(he)經濟約束，以(yi)及可行(xing)的解(jie)決方案(an)。

高比例風光發電接入系統影響轉動慣量的問題及解決方案

電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)(de)安(an)全穩定(ding)(ding)(ding)運(yun)行(xing)需(xu)要(yao)足夠的(de)(de)(de)轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)量(liang)(liang)。電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)頻(pin)率是(shi)交流電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)運(yun)行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)參數(shu)，需(xu)要(yao)保持(chi)在恒定(ding)(ding)(ding)范圍(wei)內(nei)。電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)量(liang)(liang)就是(shi)系(xi)統(tong)內(nei)同步(bu)發電(dian)(dian)機轉(zhuan)子旋轉(zhuan)過程(cheng)中(zhong)，根據自身(shen)轉(zhuan)速信號實現(xian)的(de)(de)(de)一次調頻(pin)功能來保持(chi)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)頻(pin)率穩定(ding)(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)能力。目前世界(jie)范圍(wei)內(nei)，低轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)量(liang)(liang)或無轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)量(liang)(liang)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)(de)運(yun)行(xing)經驗是(shi)完全沒(mei)有的(de)(de)(de)，對于低轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)，一旦出(chu)現(xian)短時電(dian)(dian)力不平衡(heng)問題(ti)（擾動(dong)），將出(chu)現(xian)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)頻(pin)率大幅波動(dong)，對系(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)頻(pin)率穩定(ding)(ding)(ding)是(shi)極為不利的(de)(de)(de)，繼而形成連鎖事故(gu)。所以對交流電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)(de)穩定(ding)(ding)(ding)能力而言，系(xi)統(tong)必須配(pei)置足夠的(de)(de)(de)轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)量(liang)(liang)。

高(gao)比例(li)風光(guang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)明顯影(ying)響系(xi)(xi)統轉動慣量(liang)。目前主流(liu)(liu)的(de)(de)(de)風力發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)是變速(su)恒(heng)頻機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)，其基(ji)本并網(wang)原理是將異步發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)出頻率(lv)不(bu)定的(de)(de)(de)交流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)整流(liu)(liu)為直流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，再由逆(ni)變器(qi)逆(ni)變為與(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)同(tong)頻率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)交流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)后(hou)與(yu)系(xi)(xi)統并列(lie)(lie)。光(guang)伏發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)由發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板直接(jie)發(fa)(fa)出直流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)后(hou)，由逆(ni)變器(qi)逆(ni)變為與(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)同(tong)頻率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)交流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)后(hou)與(yu)系(xi)(xi)統并列(lie)(lie)。經(jing)過(guo)整流(liu)(liu)器(qi)和逆(ni)變器(qi)等(deng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)子系(xi)(xi)統轉換的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力，缺失了同(tong)步發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)大重(zhong)量(liang)轉子維(wei)持(chi)系(xi)(xi)統頻率(lv)穩(wen)定的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)力。隨著風光(guang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)接(jie)入系(xi)(xi)統，直接(jie)造成系(xi)(xi)統轉動慣量(liang)下降，風光(guang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)比例(li)越(yue)(yue)高(gao)，在線(xian)運行的(de)(de)(de)其他同(tong)步機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)越(yue)(yue)少，轉動慣量(liang)下降越(yue)(yue)快，嚴重(zhong)威脅系(xi)(xi)統的(de)(de)(de)運行穩(wen)定。

高(gao)(gao)比(bi)(bi)例(li)風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)接入(ru)系統(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)行(xing)解決方(fang)(fang)案。高(gao)(gao)比(bi)(bi)例(li)風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)(zu)會造成系統(tong)(tong)(tong)轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)(guan)量(liang)下(xia)(xia)降，為了(le)(le)防范大電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)(guan)量(liang)下(xia)(xia)降過多，威脅(xie)系統(tong)(tong)(tong)安全，現階段高(gao)(gao)比(bi)(bi)例(li)風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)影響(xiang)系統(tong)(tong)(tong)轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)(guan)量(liang)問題(ti)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)采(cai)用(yong)(yong)兩(liang)個(ge)技術方(fang)(fang)案解決，但是(shi)經濟代(dai)價均較(jiao)為高(gao)(gao)昂(ang)。一(yi)是(shi)運(yun)行(xing)足(zu)夠(gou)比(bi)(bi)例(li)的(de)(de)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)(zu)。為了(le)(le)碳中(zhong)和(he)目標，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的(de)(de)生(sheng)產并(bing)不(bu)(bu)需要大量(liang)的(de)(de)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)(zu)，但是(shi)為了(le)(le)保(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)(guan)量(liang)足(zu)夠(gou)，必須(xu)(xu)保(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)足(zu)夠(gou)比(bi)(bi)例(li)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)(zu)在(zai)(zai)線。即利用(yong)(yong)大電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網消納(na)風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)，為了(le)(le)保(bao)(bao)障交(jiao)流(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網頻(pin)率的(de)(de)穩定(ding)能力(li)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網運(yun)行(xing)中(zhong)必須(xu)(xu)有(you)一(yi)定(ding)比(bi)(bi)例(li)的(de)(de)同(tong)(tong)步發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)。考慮到水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)(zu)的(de)(de)季節(jie)(jie)性(xing)(xing)和(he)核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)(zu)調(diao)(diao)節(jie)(jie)空(kong)間不(bu)(bu)足(zu)的(de)(de)問題(ti)，系統(tong)(tong)(tong)中(zhong)必須(xu)(xu)運(yun)行(xing)與風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)(zu)容量(liang)合(he)(he)理(li)比(bi)(bi)例(li)的(de)(de)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)(zu)和(he)燃氣機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)(zu)，以保(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)足(zu)量(liang)的(de)(de)轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)(guan)量(liang)和(he)調(diao)(diao)節(jie)(jie)能力(li)，最(zui)終造成風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)消納(na)成本大幅上升。二是(shi)采(cai)用(yong)(yong)虛(xu)(xu)擬(ni)同(tong)(tong)步機(ji)(ji)(ji)實(shi)現風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)可(ke)(ke)(ke)調(diao)(diao)節(jie)(jie)的(de)(de)“合(he)(he)理(li)棄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”。為了(le)(le)提高(gao)(gao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)控性(xing)(xing)，在(zai)(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)中(zhong)應(ying)用(yong)(yong)虛(xu)(xu)擬(ni)同(tong)(tong)步機(ji)(ji)(ji)技術模(mo)擬(ni)轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)(guan)量(liang)的(de)(de)一(yi)次(ci)調(diao)(diao)節(jie)(jie)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)減(jian)少(shao)對(dui)系統(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)平衡影響(xiang)，提高(gao)(gao)系統(tong)(tong)(tong)頻(pin)率穩定(ding)性(xing)(xing)。虛(xu)(xu)擬(ni)同(tong)(tong)步機(ji)(ji)(ji)是(shi)在(zai)(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)并(bing)網逆變(bian)器(qi)內的(de)(de)控制(zhi)器(qi)中(zhong)，加入(ru)一(yi)種模(mo)擬(ni)同(tong)(tong)步發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)運(yun)行(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)制(zhi)和(he)外(wai)特性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)控制(zhi)算(suan)法，在(zai)(zai)系統(tong)(tong)(tong)供應(ying)短缺時(shi)增加風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)出力(li)，系統(tong)(tong)(tong)供應(ying)過剩時(shi)減(jian)少(shao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)出力(li)，以自動(dong)控制(zhi)方(fang)(fang)式維持平衡。虛(xu)(xu)擬(ni)同(tong)(tong)步機(ji)(ji)(ji)會造成風(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)響(xiang)應(ying)系統(tong)(tong)(tong)需要時(shi)自動(dong)“合(he)(he)理(li)棄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”，實(shi)現自然資源(yuan)的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)調(diao)(diao)節(jie)(jie)性(xing)(xing)，增加系統(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)平衡能力(li)和(he)頻(pin)率穩定(ding)能力(li)。但是(shi)虛(xu)(xu)擬(ni)同(tong)(tong)步機(ji)(ji)(ji)技術畢竟不(bu)(bu)是(shi)真(zhen)實(shi)的(de)(de)同(tong)(tong)步機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)(zu)，能夠(gou)提供的(de)(de)轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣(guan)(guan)(guan)量(liang)和(he)可(ke)(ke)(ke)調(diao)(diao)節(jie)(jie)范圍有(you)限。

高比例風光發電接入系統影響備用問題及解決方案

電(dian)網的(de)安(an)全穩(wen)定運(yun)行對備(bei)用(yong)的(de)要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)。電(dian)網安(an)全穩(wen)定運(yun)行，要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)系(xi)統(tong)必(bi)須(xu)滿足電(dian)力平衡，任意(yi)時刻必(bi)須(xu)滿足三個條(tiao)件：總發(fa)電(dian)能力必(bi)須(xu)大(da)于(yu)(yu)負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷且(qie)有一(yi)定冗余(yu)，總發(fa)電(dian)功率(lv)必(bi)須(xu)等于(yu)(yu)總負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷功率(lv)+損耗(hao)功率(lv)，局部(bu)輸送能力必(bi)須(xu)大(da)于(yu)(yu)局部(bu)凈需求(qiu)(qiu)并有一(yi)定冗余(yu)。這就要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)系(xi)統(tong)內必(bi)須(xu)有足夠的(de)備(bei)用(yong)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)以應對系(xi)統(tong)內的(de)故障(zhang)、發(fa)電(dian)減出力和負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷波動。按照GB/T38969-2020《電(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)技術導則》規定，系(xi)統(tong)備(bei)用(yong)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)最(zui)(zui)大(da)負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷的(de)2%～5%，事(shi)故備(bei)用(yong)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)最(zui)(zui)大(da)負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷的(de)10%，不小(xiao)于(yu)(yu)系(xi)統(tong)一(yi)臺最(zui)(zui)大(da)機(ji)組或饋入最(zui)(zui)大(da)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)直流的(de)單級容量(liang)(liang)(liang)。

高比例風(feng)(feng)(feng)光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)對系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)備(bei)(bei)用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)影響。由(you)于(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)光新能(neng)源出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)隨(sui)機(ji)(ji)性、波動(dong)性和間歇性，造成(cheng)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)內總(zong)的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)不(bu)可控(kong)。按照GB/T38969-2020《電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)技術導(dao)則(ze)》規(gui)定(ding)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)、太陽(yang)能(neng)等新能(neng)源裝機(ji)(ji)較(jiao)多的(de)(de)地區，需結合風(feng)(feng)(feng)光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)(li)特性和參與平衡的(de)(de)比例，額外設置一定(ding)的(de)(de)負荷備(bei)(bei)用(yong)(yong)容(rong)量。根據30·60目(mu)標的(de)(de)推算，未來風(feng)(feng)(feng)光新能(neng)源裝機(ji)(ji)規(gui)模(mo)要達(da)到40%～70%，如此高比例的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)接入系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)，將迫使系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)預留備(bei)(bei)用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)比例大(da)(da)(da)大(da)(da)(da)增加(jia)(jia)。光伏(fu)能(neng)源隨(sui)著太陽(yang)光照強度波動(dong)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)隨(sui)著自然來風(feng)(feng)(feng)變化，如果兩(liang)者在(zai)同一時期(qi)疊加(jia)(jia)，會造成(cheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)(li)大(da)(da)(da)幅波動(dong)，甚至在(zai)極端情況下會造成(cheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)(li)從(cong)最大(da)(da)(da)負荷突減至零，嚴重威(wei)脅系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)運行安(an)全，使得(de)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)備(bei)(bei)用(yong)(yong)容(rong)量需求大(da)(da)(da)大(da)(da)(da)增加(jia)(jia)。歐盟28國傳統(tong)(tong)電(dian)源的(de)(de)容(rong)量一直保持與最大(da)(da)(da)負荷相當，作為其他發(fa)(fa)電(dian)的(de)(de)備(bei)(bei)用(yong)(yong)容(rong)量，為了滿足(zu)電(dian)網的(de)(de)安(an)全，系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)備(bei)(bei)用(yong)(yong)容(rong)量大(da)(da)(da)大(da)(da)(da)增加(jia)(jia)。

高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)比例(li)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)接(jie)入(ru)系(xi)統的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)解決方案。為了減小風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)出力(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)確(que)(que)(que)定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)對(dui)(dui)大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)備(bei)(bei)(bei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang)，適(shi)應(ying)未(wei)來(lai)“30·60目標”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)比例(li)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)要(yao)(yao)(yao)求(qiu)，需(xu)(xu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)在(zai)以(yi)(yi)下四個方面加(jia)大(da)技(ji)(ji)術投入(ru)：一是(shi)(shi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)出力(li)(li)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測(ce)(ce)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)準(zhun)確(que)(que)(que)性(xing)(xing)。目前國內風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測(ce)(ce)24小時準(zhun)確(que)(que)(que)率(lv)為70%，而美(mei)國風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測(ce)(ce)24小時準(zhun)確(que)(que)(que)率(lv)已(yi)達(da)90%以(yi)(yi)上。提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)出力(li)(li)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測(ce)(ce)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)準(zhun)確(que)(que)(que)性(xing)(xing)可以(yi)(yi)有效(xiao)(xiao)較少系(xi)統對(dui)(dui)備(bei)(bei)(bei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)負荷(he)(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang)。二是(shi)(shi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)安(an)全穩定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)光(guang)伏在(zai)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)過程中大(da)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)使用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)整流、逆(ni)變器(qi)等(deng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)子設備(bei)(bei)(bei)，其對(dui)(dui)于系(xi)統波動的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)抗干擾能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)較常規機(ji)(ji)(ji)組嚴重不(bu)足，特(te)別是(shi)(shi)需(xu)(xu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)其低電(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)穿越能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)安(an)全性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)可以(yi)(yi)有效(xiao)(xiao)減少系(xi)統對(dui)(dui)備(bei)(bei)(bei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)負荷(he)(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)。三(san)是(shi)(shi)保持可調(diao)(diao)(diao)節電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)足夠容量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)并(bing)進(jin)行(xing)靈(ling)活(huo)性(xing)(xing)改造(zao)。利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)系(xi)統內部可調(diao)(diao)(diao)節性(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)調(diao)(diao)(diao)峰能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)實現風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)消納，需(xu)(xu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)加(jia)大(da)可調(diao)(diao)(diao)節電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)靈(ling)活(huo)性(xing)(xing)改造(zao)，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)可調(diao)(diao)(diao)節性(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)頂峰壓(ya)谷能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)，特(te)別是(shi)(shi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組負荷(he)(he)調(diao)(diao)(diao)整速率(lv)，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)消納風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)和(he)有效(xiao)(xiao)備(bei)(bei)(bei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)負荷(he)(he)，需(xu)(xu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)強調(diao)(diao)(diao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)必(bi)須(xu)保持具備(bei)(bei)(bei)該特(te)性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組足夠的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)。四是(shi)(shi)是(shi)(shi)加(jia)快(kuai)智能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)技(ji)(ji)術的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展。未(wei)來(lai)智能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展，將利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)通訊網(wang)絡技(ji)(ji)術、傳(chuan)感和(he)測(ce)(ce)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)技(ji)(ji)術、先進(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)控制方法以(yi)(yi)及決策(ce)支持系(xi)統技(ji)(ji)術，有效(xiao)(xiao)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測(ce)(ce)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)光(guang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)和(he)備(bei)(bei)(bei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)留，確(que)(que)(que)定(ding)(ding)資源(yuan)配置最佳地理(li)范圍(wei)，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)設備(bei)(bei)(bei)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)，實現電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可靠、安(an)全、經濟、高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)效(xiao)(xiao)、環境友好的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)目標。

高比例風光發電接入系統的經濟性障礙

風光(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)作為環(huan)保(bao)的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)源(yuan)方式理念已經(jing)深(shen)(shen)入(ru)人心(xin)。隨著(zhu)風光(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)投資成(cheng)本(ben)逐(zhu)漸下降，人們(men)對(dui)(dui)風光(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)經(jing)濟性誤解(jie)也在(zai)逐(zhu)漸加深(shen)(shen)，認(ren)為風光(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)作為邊際成(cheng)本(ben)為零的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)源(yuan)，投入(ru)比例越高(gao)將對(dui)(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網的(de)(de)(de)經(jing)濟性越好。然而，在(zai)我國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統安(an)全穩定(ding)性的(de)(de)(de)紅線要求前(qian)提(ti)下，投入(ru)高(gao)比例風光(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)必(bi)須要在(zai)線匹配足夠(gou)的(de)(de)(de)轉(zhuan)動慣量機(ji)(ji)組(zu)和(he)可調節能(neng)源(yuan)機(ji)(ji)組(zu)，這樣就會造成(cheng)風光(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)消納(na)成(cheng)本(ben)大幅上(shang)升，并且很可能(neng)消納(na)成(cheng)本(ben)的(de)(de)(de)上(shang)漲絕對(dui)(dui)量大于(yu)風光(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)下降的(de)(de)(de)絕對(dui)(dui)量。

調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)節電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)的(de)啟(qi)(qi)停(ting)(ting)費用(yong)。由(you)于(yu)風(feng)(feng)光發(fa)電(dian)(dian)機組(zu)(zu)出(chu)力的(de)波動性，電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)為(wei)了保證電(dian)(dian)力平衡，必須配備(bei)足夠的(de)可調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)機組(zu)(zu)進行調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)節。在(zai)高比例風(feng)(feng)光發(fa)電(dian)(dian)的(de)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)中(zhong)，風(feng)(feng)光發(fa)電(dian)(dian)出(chu)力的(de)大(da)量疊加(jia)，造成可調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)機組(zu)(zu)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)峰范圍大(da)大(da)增加(jia)，甚至需(xu)(xu)要(yao)機組(zu)(zu)啟(qi)(qi)停(ting)(ting)以滿足系統需(xu)(xu)要(yao)。隨著風(feng)(feng)光發(fa)電(dian)(dian)滲(shen)透率逐漸升高，火電(dian)(dian)機組(zu)(zu)等(deng)可調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)能(neng)源(yuan)利用(yong)小時(shi)數(shu)逐漸下(xia)降，煤電(dian)(dian)和燃(ran)氣機組(zu)(zu)的(de)啟(qi)(qi)停(ting)(ting)次數(shu)卻在(zai)大(da)幅(fu)升高。機組(zu)(zu)啟(qi)(qi)停(ting)(ting)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)峰作為(wei)重大(da)操(cao)作，其啟(qi)(qi)停(ting)(ting)成本將造成電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)運(yun)行費用(yong)大(da)幅(fu)增加(jia)，最終也將在(zai)用(yong)戶側(ce)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)費用(yong)上體現(xian)，使得(de)高比例風(feng)(feng)光發(fa)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)的(de)經濟(ji)性大(da)幅(fu)下(xia)降。

調(diao)(diao)頻(pin)和備用(yong)輔(fu)助服務(wu)費用(yong)。隨著高比(bi)例(li)風(feng)光發電(dian)投(tou)入電(dian)網，為(wei)了維(wei)護電(dian)網安(an)全穩(wen)(wen)定運(yun)行，必須有足量的(de)轉動慣量機(ji)組預留(liu)調(diao)(diao)峰容(rong)量和備用(yong)容(rong)量，維(wei)持電(dian)網異常情況下(xia)頻(pin)率穩(wen)(wen)定和電(dian)力(li)平(ping)衡。而可調(diao)(diao)機(ji)組預留(liu)調(diao)(diao)頻(pin)容(rong)量和備用(yong)容(rong)量產(chan)(chan)生的(de)機(ji)會成(cheng)本(ben)在(zai)電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統中(zhong)也將成(cheng)為(wei)電(dian)網運(yun)行費用(yong)。按照(zhao)電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統“誰受益、誰承(cheng)擔(dan)”的(de)原則，因調(diao)(diao)頻(pin)和備用(yong)輔(fu)助服務(wu)產(chan)(chan)生的(de)費用(yong)最終(zhong)也將由用(yong)戶(hu)承(cheng)擔(dan)，這筆費用(yong)也將使得高比(bi)例(li)風(feng)光發電(dian)電(dian)網的(de)經濟性大(da)幅下(xia)降。

穩定(ding)電源的(de)(de)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)補(bu)償(chang)費(fei)用(yong)。高(gao)比例風光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電投(tou)(tou)入電網(wang)后，電網(wang)大部分(fen)(fen)電量(liang)(liang)將由(you)風光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電機(ji)組(zu)頂替生產(chan)(chan)，按照邊際成(cheng)本報價回(hui)(hui)收變動成(cheng)本的(de)(de)理論，電網(wang)系統內大部分(fen)(fen)承(cheng)擔備用(yong)的(de)(de)可調(diao)機(ji)組(zu)的(de)(de)固(gu)定(ding)成(cheng)本將無法回(hui)(hui)收。為(wei)了保(bao)證電力(li)設(she)備投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)穩定(ding)性，必須保(bao)障電力(li)企業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)合(he)理收益，這就需(xu)要保(bao)障發(fa)(fa)(fa)電企業(ye)(ye)合(he)理收回(hui)(hui)固(gu)定(ding)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)成(cheng)本，即(ji)相當比例的(de)(de)機(ji)組(zu)不再以(yi)(yi)生產(chan)(chan)電量(liang)(liang)為(wei)主，僅作(zuo)為(wei)風光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電的(de)(de)配套設(she)施(shi)，這部分(fen)(fen)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)補(bu)償(chang)費(fei)用(yong)也應記為(wei)風光(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電的(de)(de)生產(chan)(chan)成(cheng)本。目前大部分(fen)(fen)省份都(dou)在(zai)準(zhun)備設(she)計(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)補(bu)償(chang)機(ji)制和容(rong)量(liang)(liang)市場，以(yi)(yi)保(bao)證本地區(qu)穩定(ding)的(de)(de)電力(li)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)。而這部分(fen)(fen)電力(li)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)造成(cheng)的(de)(de)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)補(bu)償(chang)費(fei)用(yong)也將增加電力(li)運行費(fei)用(yong)。

近期受(shou)政策利好(hao)影響，大量的風光發電投資(zi)蜂擁(yong)而至，不但造成風光發電固定投資(zi)成本不降(jiang)反升(sheng)(sheng)，還可能(neng)造成在(zai)技術(shu)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)條件不變情(qing)況(kuang)下(xia)消(xiao)納成本快速(su)增(zeng)長。未來，大電網(wang)消(xiao)納成本需要加上可調機組的啟停費(fei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)、調頻備用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)輔助服務費(fei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)和容量補償費(fei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)，消(xiao)納成本將必然隨(sui)著風光發電比例的升(sheng)(sheng)高而大幅上升(sheng)(sheng)，這就會存在(zai)一個風光發電最佳比例，在(zai)此比例之后將會電網(wang)運行經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)性(xing)急劇下(xia)降(jiang)，超越(yue)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)戶電價的承(cheng)受(shou)能(neng)力，影響近期的社會經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發展。

實現碳中和目標需要著手的工作

“30·60目標”剛剛提出，電(dian)力(li)行業的發展實施方式(shi)和(he)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)障礙都是(shi)根(gen)據目前技(ji)(ji)術(shu)水(shui)(shui)平所提出，上述分析判斷(duan)都很初步，存在一定的局限(xian)性(xing)。但是(shi)，市場體制建設和(he)電(dian)源電(dian)網(wang)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)水(shui)(shui)平的提高(gao)，卻(que)必須(xu)從現在開(kai)始著手，才能(neng)不阻礙碳達(da)峰、碳中和(he)目標的實現。

加(jia)快電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)現(xian)(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)機(ji)制為核心的(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)代(dai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)體系建(jian)設。國(guo)際上，實(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)高比例風(feng)(feng)光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)運行的(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)家(jia)，無一不是已經建(jian)立了以電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)現(xian)(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)機(ji)制為核心的(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)代(dai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)體系，可見市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)化有(you)利(li)(li)于推(tui)動風(feng)(feng)光等新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展消納(na)(na)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統中(zhong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)-輸-配(pei)-售(shou)-用(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)各個環節，都是一個市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)交換過程(cheng)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統的(de)(de)(de)(de)正常(chang)運行需(xu)(xu)要(yao)理清各個環節之間的(de)(de)(de)(de)經濟(ji)關系，利(li)(li)用(yong)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)這個配(pei)置資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)有(you)效手段(duan)(duan)調(diao)節各方(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)權利(li)(li)責任，讓市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)來選(xuan)擇電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行業(ye)碳中(zhong)和(he)(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)施方(fang)式(shi)，在優(you)勝(sheng)劣汰的(de)(de)(de)(de)競(jing)爭中(zhong)篩選(xuan)出性(xing)價(jia)比最高的(de)(de)(de)(de)消納(na)(na)方(fang)式(shi)和(he)(he)消納(na)(na)手段(duan)(duan)。高比例風(feng)(feng)光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)+大電(dian)(dian)(dian)網的(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)施方(fang)式(shi)下，風(feng)(feng)光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)消納(na)(na)需(xu)(xu)要(yao)可調(diao)節能源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)大力(li)(li)配(pei)合(he)(he)，就(jiu)更需(xu)(xu)要(yao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)現(xian)(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)來厘(li)清這復(fu)雜的(de)(de)(de)(de)經濟(ji)關系，需(xu)(xu)要(yao)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)發(fa)(fa)現(xian)(xian)(xian)最真實(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)消納(na)(na)成本，才(cai)能讓用(yong)戶信服地接受用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成本合(he)(he)理上升。目前我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)現(xian)(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)建(jian)設如火如荼(tu)，8個現(xian)(xian)(xian)貨(huo)試點穩步(bu)推(tui)進，其他電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)建(jian)設緊跟(gen)其后，風(feng)(feng)光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)平(ping)等參與市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)也將(jiang)撥(bo)云見日(ri)。為了“30·60目標”的(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)現(xian)(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)必須穩步(bu)加(jia)快建(jian)設，以市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)手段(duan)(duan)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)配(pei)置，助力(li)(li)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)碳中(zhong)和(he)(he)。

風(feng)光(guang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)要(yao)增強成(cheng)為“負責(ze)任主(zhu)(zhu)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源”的(de)使命感(gan)。“30·60目標”將激勵著廣(guang)大(da)風(feng)光(guang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業擴大(da)生產，提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業綠(lv)色環(huan)保(bao)程(cheng)度(du)。未來(lai)一段(duan)時間內，風(feng)光(guang)行(xing)業要(yao)以自身(shen)是主(zhu)(zhu)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源的(de)姿態(tai)承擔(dan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統(tong)的(de)各項責(ze)任，不再將國家(jia)政(zheng)策“照顧”作為發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)前提條件(jian)，不斷(duan)降低(di)成(cheng)本，積極參與電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力市場，在(zai)公平(ping)的(de)平(ping)臺上(shang)引領電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。不但(dan)能(neng)夠(gou)承擔(dan)自身(shen)需(xu)要(yao)為電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統(tong)承擔(dan)的(de)責(ze)任，還要(yao)能(neng)夠(gou)分擔(dan)其他(ta)“配角”的(de)責(ze)任，如同之前煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機組長期無償(chang)為風(feng)光(guang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)提供(gong)幫(bang)助一樣(yang)。為實現高比例風(feng)光(guang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)對(dui)未來(lai)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)的(de)友(you)好(hao)性、經(jing)濟性，風(feng)光(guang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)必須做(zuo)好(hao)負荷控制和預測，提高自身(shen)安全穩定性，降低(di)設備投資成(cheng)本，成(cheng)為真正有利于(yu)經(jing)濟、有利于(yu)社會的(de)環(huan)保(bao)型(xing)、友(you)好(hao)型(xing)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源。

火(huo)(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)要(yao)轉(zhuan)換定(ding)位尋求(qiu)新的(de)發(fa)(fa)展機(ji)(ji)(ji)遇。傳(chuan)統(tong)火(huo)(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)作(zuo)為(wei)穩定(ding)的(de)可(ke)調(diao)節機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)，為(wei)中國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業的(de)發(fa)(fa)展、中國(guo)(guo)社會現代化發(fa)(fa)展作(zuo)出了巨(ju)大貢獻。未(wei)來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業將朝著綠色可(ke)持續發(fa)(fa)展的(de)方向進步，但也(ye)不是不需(xu)要(yao)傳(chuan)統(tong)能源(yuan)支(zhi)持，倫敦大停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事故(gu)和(he)今年冬季國(guo)(guo)內多地有序用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)也(ye)再一次證明(ming)傳(chuan)統(tong)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)必須性。在未(wei)來“30·60目標”下，實現碳中和(he)的(de)高(gao)比例風光發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)要(yao)火(huo)(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)提供必須的(de)旋轉(zhuan)慣量(liang)和(he)備(bei)(bei)用(yong)支(zhi)撐(cheng)。雖然火(huo)(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)的(de)利用(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)數(shu)超預期大幅下降成(cheng)為(wei)必然趨勢(shi)，但火(huo)(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)的(de)備(bei)(bei)用(yong)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)還是需(xu)要(yao)長久(jiu)保(bao)持。所以未(wei)來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網系統(tong)不是減少火(huo)(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)量(liang)，而是要(yao)減少火(huo)(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)。建議暫緩關(guan)(guan)停火(huo)(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)，將其(qi)作(zuo)為(wei)備(bei)(bei)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)，時(shi)刻作(zuo)為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網的(de)穩定(ding)支(zhi)撐(cheng)。面對未(wei)來，火(huo)(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)要(yao)適應形勢(shi)需(xu)要(yao)，必須加強自身建設，做好設備(bei)(bei)管理維(wei)護，做到緊急時(shi)刻靠得住、關(guan)(guan)鍵時(shi)刻頂(ding)得上的(de)穩定(ding)可(ke)調(diao)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)，以期在調(diao)頻備(bei)(bei)用(yong)市(shi)場(chang)中、容(rong)量(liang)補償市(shi)場(chang)中贏得先機(ji)(ji)(ji)。

碳達峰、碳中和目(mu)(mu)標(biao)作為我國向(xiang)世界(jie)作出(chu)的(de)鄭重承諾，將在未(wei)來(lai)指導我國能源(yuan)(yuan)行(xing)業(ye)的(de)發展方向(xiang)。目(mu)(mu)前，我國正在在努力(li)(li)(li)構(gou)建國內國際雙循環(huan)的(de)新經(jing)濟發展格局，“30·60目(mu)(mu)標(biao)”將加(jia)快推進(jin)我國能源(yuan)(yuan)產(chan)業(ye)轉型升級，促進(jin)電力(li)(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)供給側結構(gou)性改革(ge)，以電力(li)(li)(li)工(gong)業(ye)升級改造加(jia)速國內經(jing)濟循環(huan)，促進(jin)國民(min)經(jing)濟健康發展。廣大(da)能源(yuan)(yuan)行(xing)業(ye)從業(ye)者要堅定不(bu)移(yi)地(di)支持“30·60目(mu)(mu)標(biao)”的(de)實現(xian)，努力(li)(li)(li)轉變生產(chan)方式促進(jin)能源(yuan)(yuan)轉型升級，以能源(yuan)(yuan)革(ge)命的(de)自我革(ge)新碰撞出(chu)“安全(quan)、經(jing)濟、環(huan)保(bao)”能源(yuan)(yuan)不(bu)可能三角(jiao)的(de)最優妥協點，真正做(zuo)到有(you)利于(yu)人民(min)、有(you)利于(yu)碳中和目(mu)(mu)標(biao)的(de)實現(xian)。

注：本文刊載于《中國電力企業管理》2021年01期，作者單位：華能北京熱電有限公司。